On July 21, 2014, two blockchain pioneers—Dan Larimer and Charles Hoskinson—launched BitUSD on the BitShares network, creating the world’s first stablecoin. Their ambitious experiment sought to solve cryptocurrency’s biggest problem: extreme volatility that made digital assets useless for everyday commerce. BitUSD failed spectacularly, losing its dollar peg in 2018, but it planted the seeds for a revolution that would reshape global finance.

Later in 2014, a project called RealCoin (later rebranded as Tether) introduced a simpler approach: backing digital tokens with actual dollar reserves held in traditional banks. Unlike BitUSD’s complex algorithmic mechanisms, Tether’s model was elegantly straightforward—one digital token for one physical dollar. Despite early controversies about reserve transparency and a $41 million regulatory fine, Tether proved the concept worked at scale.

The evolution accelerated rapidly. USD Coin launched in 2018, emphasizing regulatory compliance and audited reserves. DAI emerged as a decentralized alternative, backed by cryptocurrency collateral and governed by smart contracts. By 2020, the combined stablecoin market had grown to just $5 billion—a niche corner of the crypto ecosystem used primarily for trading.

Then everything changed.

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the fragility of traditional payment systems just as blockchain infrastructure matured enough for mainstream use. Argentina’s inflation crisis, Lebanon’s banking collapse, and Nigeria’s currency devaluation drove millions toward dollar-backed stablecoins as financial lifelines. Meanwhile, corporations discovered that stablecoins could slash payment costs from 2-4% to near zero while enabling instant global settlements.

By 2024, stablecoin transfer volume hit $27.6 trillion—exceeding the combined throughput of Visa and Mastercard. The market capitalization reached $260 billion, with Tether alone commanding $154 billion and becoming the third-largest cryptocurrency. What began as experimental tokens had evolved into critical financial infrastructure processing more value than the world’s largest payment networks.

The transformation culminated on July 18, 2025, when President Trump signed the GENIUS Act—the first comprehensive federal framework for stablecoin regulation. No longer experimental or unregulated, stablecoins gained legitimacy as essential components of the American monetary system. The Federal Reserve now oversees large issuers while providing access to master accounts that enable large-scale operations. A senior Treasury official noted that stablecoin growth will have “significant impact on the dominance of the US dollar and demand for US debt.”

But this regulatory acceptance represents just the beginning. What we’re witnessing isn’t merely the maturation of a cryptocurrency category—it’s the early stages of the most fundamental transformation of money since the invention of banking itself. From failed experiments to regulated financial infrastructure in eleven years. From $5 billion to $260 billion in five years. The exponential adoption curve suggests we’re approaching an inflection point where stablecoins don’t just compete with traditional money—they replace it entirely.

Based on current technological capabilities, adoption patterns, and regulatory momentum, here are 12 predictions that will reshape global finance by 2035—transforming stablecoins from digital dollars into the foundation of a programmable money system that makes today’s banking infrastructure obsolete.

1. The $10 Trillion Explosion (Prediction #1)

The stablecoin market will explode from today’s $260 billion to over $10 trillion by 2030. Bernstein’s conservative projection of $3 trillion by 2028 will prove dramatically low as regulatory clarity accelerates institutional adoption faster than anyone expects.
The foundation is already set. The GENIUS Act, signed by Trump on July 18, 2025, establishes the regulatory framework that institutions needed. The Federal Reserve now oversees large stablecoin issuers while controlling access to the critical master accounts that enable large-scale operations. This dual role as gatekeeper and infrastructure provider positions the Fed to manage explosive growth while maintaining system stability.

Transfer volume tells the real story: $27.6 trillion in 2024, already exceeding Visa and Mastercard’s combined throughput. A senior Treasury official revealed that this growth will have “significant impact on the dominance of the US dollar and demand for US debt”—translation: stablecoins are becoming a cornerstone of American monetary policy.

By 2027, Amazon and Walmart’s branded stablecoins will turn shopping into a closed-loop financial ecosystem—cutting out banks, slashing fees, and reshaping how we pay.

2. Corporate Stablecoin Wars Begin (Prediction #2)

Amazon and Walmart will launch competing branded stablecoins by 2027, with “AMZN Coin” and “WAL Token” becoming primary payment methods for their ecosystems. These aren’t payment gimmicks—they’re strategic weapons for building closed-loop digital economies that bypass traditional banking entirely.

The economics are irresistible. Credit card fees cost Amazon billions annually at 2-4% per transaction. Stablecoin payments reduce this to near zero while enabling instant settlement, automated vendor payments, and supply chain financing through smart contracts. Amazon’s stablecoin will offer Prime rewards, automatic reordering, and loyalty programs that make traditional credit cards obsolete.

The precedent exists: World Liberty Financial already launched USD1, proving that major corporations can issue regulated stablecoins under the GENIUS Act framework. When the world’s largest retailers follow suit, the transformation accelerates exponentially.

3. The Federal Reserve’s Stablecoin Gambit (Prediction #3)

By 2029, the Federal Reserve will launch “FedCoin”—not a traditional central bank digital currency, but a regulated stablecoin that partners with private issuers to maintain dollar dominance globally. This hybrid approach preserves innovation while ensuring government oversight.

The strategy is already visible. Rather than competing with stablecoins, the Fed is positioning itself as their essential infrastructure provider. The master account access guidelines and GENIUS Act oversight authority give the Fed unprecedented control over who can operate at scale. FedCoin will become the backbone of international trade settlement, backed by the full faith and credit of the US government while maintaining blockchain programmability.

By 2032, stablecoins will make 2% transaction fees obsolete—forcing Visa and Mastercard
to evolve into blockchain infrastructure or vanish with the legacy they built.

4. Death of the Credit Card Industry (Prediction #4)

Visa and Mastercard’s business models will collapse by 2032 as stablecoin payments eliminate the need for card networks. Transaction fees will drop from 2-4% to under 0.1%, forcing traditional payment processors to reinvent themselves as stablecoin infrastructure providers or face extinction.

The writing is on the wall. Payment volume is already shifting: stablecoins processed more value in 2024 than the card networks, and the gap is widening. Smart contracts eliminate intermediaries while blockchain networks operate 24/7. When Amazon and Walmart’s stablecoins prove that merchants can avoid card fees entirely, the exodus becomes unstoppable.

Forward-thinking players are already pivoting. JPMorgan launched JPMD, a deposit token designed to function like a stablecoin but integrated with traditional banking. The survivors will be those who embrace the new infrastructure rather than fighting it.

5. Programmable Money Creates New Worlds (Prediction #5)

Smart contract-enabled stablecoins will spawn entirely new business categories by 2030: subscriptions that automatically pause when income drops, insurance that pays out instantly based on sensor data, and supply chains where payments trigger automatically upon delivery verification.

The foundation exists today. Advanced yield strategies already use stablecoins for automated arbitrage, carry trading, and liquidation harvesting. Corporate treasuries are implementing “programmable treasury” operations that automatically optimize cash positions across global subsidiaries. These early applications prove the technology works—scale is the only remaining barrier.

By 2031, stablecoin-backed mortgages will make home buying instant, automated, and bank-free—replacing months of paperwork with minutes of settlement.

6. Real Estate Goes Digital (Prediction #6)

Stablecoin-backed mortgages will become standard by 2031, with property purchases settled in minutes rather than months. Decentralized lending protocols will offer mortgages backed by stablecoin reserves, eliminating banks from residential lending and reducing homeownership costs by thousands annually.

The infrastructure is emerging. Trade finance transactions already use blockchain for instant settlement, reducing document transfer times from days to minutes. Invoice factoring now happens through smart contracts with automatic payment triggers. Real estate represents the natural evolution—the largest asset class moving to the most efficient settlement system.

7. Emerging Markets Leapfrog Everything (Prediction #7)

Countries like Nigeria, India, and Brazil will achieve 80%+ stablecoin adoption by 2030, completely bypassing traditional banking infrastructure. Local currencies will become secondary as citizens and businesses operate primarily in USD-backed stablecoins.
The trend is accelerating. In Argentina, where inflation exceeded 100% in 2022, businesses routinely convert pesos to USDC immediately after receiving payments. Lebanon saw 1,781% growth in digital wallet downloads during its currency crisis. These aren’t temporary fixes—they’re permanent shifts toward more reliable monetary systems.

The network effects become self-reinforcing. As more businesses accept stablecoins, more consumers need them. As stablecoin adoption grows, local banking becomes less relevant. Eventually, the parallel economy becomes the primary economy.

By 2028, energy markets will go digital as oil and solar reserves are tokenized into stablecoins—turning electricity and fuel into instantly tradable global currencies.

8. Energy Becomes Programmable Money (Prediction #8)

Oil, gas, and renewable energy will be routinely traded using commodity-backed stablecoins by 2028. “PetroToken” and “SolarCoin” will represent actual energy reserves, enabling instant global commodity trading and creating new financial instruments that tie energy production directly to monetary value.

The precedent exists in other sectors. Gold-backed stablecoins like PAX Gold already tokenize precious metals. The technology for commodity tokenization is proven—energy companies just need regulatory clarity and infrastructure partners. The GENIUS Act’s framework for reserve-backed stablecoins provides the legal foundation.

9. Yield Revolution Kills Savings Accounts (Prediction #9)

Traditional savings accounts paying 0.1% will become obsolete as yield-bearing stablecoins offer 3-8% returns backed by Treasury bills and DeFi protocols. Banks will be forced to offer competitive stablecoin products or watch deposits flee to crypto-native yield platforms.
The yield differential is already dramatic. While savings accounts pay essentially nothing, treasury-backed stablecoins like Ondo’s USDY offer 3.85% yields with similar risk profiles. Advanced strategies through platforms like MEV Capital generate 38%+ returns through sophisticated arbitrage and carry trading.

The shift accelerates as more sophisticated players enter. BlackRock’s BUILD fund and similar institutional products make high-yield stablecoin strategies accessible to mainstream investors. Traditional banks can’t compete with 0.1% savings rates.

By 2030, stablecoin transfers will flow effortlessly across blockchains—uniting fragmented networks into one seamless global payment layer.

10. Universal Stablecoin Standards (Prediction #10)

By 2030, sending stablecoins across different blockchains will be as easy as sending an email. Universal stablecoin standards will enable instant, costless transfers between Ethereum, Solana, Bitcoin Lightning, and any future networks, creating a unified global payment system.
Cross-chain infrastructure is already developing rapidly. Major stablecoins operate on multiple networks—USDC functions on Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, and others. The remaining challenge is seamless interoperability without complex bridging processes. Universal standards solve this, creating a single global stablecoin ecosystem.

11. AI Agents Become Economic Players (Prediction #11)

Artificial intelligence systems will use stablecoins to conduct millions of micro-transactions autonomously by 2033, purchasing computing power, data, and services without human intervention. This “AI economy” will operate entirely on stablecoin rails, with algorithms making real-time economic decisions using programmable money.

The foundation is being built now. Smart contracts already automate complex financial operations. AI systems increasingly make autonomous decisions. Stablecoins provide the perfect intersection—programmable money that AI can use for frictionless commerce. The scale will be unprecedented as AI agents transact billions of times per day.

By 2035, big banks will stop lending and start optimizing—reinventing themselves as stablecoin custodians and DeFi yield managers in a regulated digital finance ecosystem.

12. Banks Become Stablecoin Custodians (Prediction #12)

Major banks will abandon traditional lending by 2035, transforming into regulated stablecoin custodians and yield aggregators. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo will offer “Stablecoin Treasury Services,” earning fees by optimizing yields across DeFi protocols while providing FDIC-style insurance for institutional holdings.

The transformation is already beginning. Tether purchased $33.1 billion in US Treasuries last year—more than entire countries like Canada or Mexico. Banks see the opportunity: rather than competing with stablecoins, they can profit by providing custody, compliance, and yield optimization services.

The regulatory framework supports this evolution. The GENIUS Act requires large stablecoin issuers to work with regulated institutions. Banks have the compliance infrastructure, government relationships, and balance sheet capacity to dominate this new ecosystem.

The Transformation Timeline

2025-2027: The GENIUS Act framework solidifies corporate adoption. Amazon, Walmart, and other major retailers launch branded stablecoins. Traditional payment companies begin pivoting or dying.

2027-2030: Emerging markets achieve mass stablecoin adoption. Energy and commodity tokenization scales globally. Traditional banking deposits start fleeing to yield-bearing stablecoins.

2030-2033: Universal interoperability creates a unified global payment system. AI-driven commerce emerges at a massive scale. Programmable money enables business models impossible with traditional banking.

2033-2035: Complete payment system transformation. Traditional banking becomes obsolete except for regulated stablecoin services. The global economy operates on programmable money infrastructure.

Seizing the Transformation

These predictions aren’t science fiction—they’re the logical evolution of technologies and trends already accelerating. The companies and countries that position themselves early will dominate the next era of global finance.

For financial institutions, the choice isn’t whether to engage with stablecoins, but how quickly to build capabilities before competitors capture market share. For technology companies, building stablecoin infrastructure represents a trillion-dollar opportunity as traditional payment systems become obsolete. For policymakers, the challenge is fostering innovation while maintaining stability as money itself becomes programmable.

The stablecoin revolution isn’t coming—it’s here. President Trump’s declaration that America will become “the crypto capital of the planet” reflects recognition that the global financial system is being rebuilt from the ground up. Stablecoins provide the foundation for this new system, combining the stability of traditional currencies with the programmability and efficiency of blockchain technology.

The next decade will witness the most dramatic transformation of money since the invention of banking. Those who understand and act on these predictions will shape the future of global finance. Those who dismiss them as cryptocurrency hype will find themselves competing with room-temperature superconductors using copper wires.

The revolution has begun. The question isn’t whether these predictions will prove accurate, but whether you’ll be building the infrastructure that makes them inevitable or watching from the sidelines as the world changes around you.

Beyond traditional banks lies a borderless financial future—programmable, permissionless, and unimaginable to traditional systems.

Beyond the Bank

For over a century, traditional banking has defined our relationship with money. It enables savings, lending, credit, and global payments—but it also comes with deep structural limitations. Banks operate within the rigid boundaries of jurisdictional regulation, depend heavily on trusted intermediaries, and are burdened by aging infrastructure. In the modern age, opening an account still requires identity verification through government documents, credit assessments based on opaque criteria, and slow, manual settlement systems. Cross-border transactions can take days. Sending money to someone in another country might involve five institutions and three sets of fees. Innovation within this system is, by design, incremental.

Blockchain technology, by contrast, invites us to rethink what money can do. It isn’t just a more efficient payment rail or a decentralized ledger for currency—it’s a sandbox for entirely new kinds of financial behavior. Blockchain offers a programmable substrate for value itself, untethered from the constraints of geography and bureaucracy. As we move beyond simply digitizing existing financial models, we unlock a future in which value flows, transforms, and self-executes without permission. In this emerging space, a new generation of capabilities is waiting to be born—financial superpowers that the current banking world simply cannot imagine, let alone implement.

This shift is enabled by a rapidly expanding P2P network for multi-agent systems. As we begin to deploy many AI agents across the financial ecosystem, from wallets to DAOs, a new kind of infrastructure is taking shape—one designed not for institutions, but for autonomous, intelligent value coordination. The result is the early foundation of a global intelligence link that can increase AI agents’ revenue while securing the internet of AI agents itself. This isn’t just about better money. It’s about designing an entirely new way to distribute, govern, and evolve it.

1. Programmable Autonomous Income Streams (PAIS)

Imagine a world where your contributions—your ideas, your creativity, your code—earn you money automatically, without the need for a paycheck, a contract, or even a formal employer. This is the promise of Programmable Autonomous Income Streams (PAIS), a concept uniquely enabled by blockchain. Using smart contracts, it becomes possible to create income flows that are triggered by on-chain actions and governed by open, transparent rules. If you write a piece of open-source software and others build on it, a smart contract could pay you a small fee each time it’s reused. If you post a meme that becomes embedded in NFT culture or DAO lore, you could be rewarded each time it’s remixed or referenced in the metaverse.

This isn’t passive income in the traditional sense—it’s impact-based income, where your digital footprint generates value that accrues back to you in real time. No middlemen, no IP lawyers, no licensing deals. This vision is radically different from the employer/employee or seller/buyer model of the legacy economy. It’s a system where recognition is embedded in code, and economic reward follows contribution automatically. Traditional banking systems, with their reliance on static identity and manual verification, aren’t equipped to handle this kind of fluid, programmable compensation. But blockchain is.

What if your digital life—not your bank—decided your creditworthiness?

2. Global Permissionless Universal Credit Markets

What if your reputation was your collateral? In the world of traditional finance, access to credit is tightly bound to centralized institutions—banks, credit bureaus, and regulators. These systems depend on legacy data sources, rigid scoring models, and gatekeeping that excludes billions from global capital markets. But the blockchain presents a radically different opportunity: a borderless, permissionless credit ecosystem where anyone with a digital footprint can be assessed not by their nationality or employer, but by their contributions, behavior, and interactions across decentralized systems.

Through a combination of decentralized identifiers (DIDs), attestations, and on-chain activity, it’s possible to build a new kind of credit profile—one that evolves dynamically based on your actual economic participation. A person who has contributed consistently to open-source projects, voted meaningfully in DAOs, or repaid small peer-to-peer loans on-chain could build a transparent, tamper-proof credit reputation. Smart contracts could automate lending based on these signals, reducing risk through programmable collateral or real-time behavioral analysis. Unlike the slow-moving, siloed infrastructure of legacy finance, this system could be open, interoperable, and scalable worldwide. In this model, trust isn’t manufactured through bureaucracy—it’s earned through code and community.

3. Conversational Wallets & Autonomous Financial Agents

What if your wallet could talk—and negotiate on your behalf? In a future shaped by blockchain and artificial intelligence, the very concept of a digital wallet could evolve into a fully autonomous financial agent. Imagine a wallet that understands your goals, learns from your past behavior, and interacts across DeFi protocols, NFT marketplaces, and decentralized apps using natural language. Rather than manually switching between platforms or copying wallet addresses, you could simply say, “Move $200 into the most stable yield farm this week,” or, “Cancel my NFT subscriptions and rebalance my portfolio to lower volatility.” Your AI-agent wallet would execute instantly and transparently.

These agents could also negotiate service fees, schedule recurring payments, and enforce spending rules based on your preferences, calendar, or even health data. They might even coordinate across your DAOs to optimize your influence or manage token-voting strategies. Traditional banking cannot offer this because its infrastructure is rigid, siloed, and not designed for composability. But in a crypto-native world, where protocols are modular and programmable, wallets become portals—not just to store assets, but to deploy intelligence. When your wallet becomes your CFO, the financial playing field is no longer defined by wealth—it’s defined by autonomy.

Die once, distribute forever: programmable inheritance with zero middlemen.

4. Inheritance Protocols with Dynamic Logic

What if your legacy was fully automated and trustless? Today’s inheritance systems are notoriously slow, expensive, and vulnerable to disputes. They rely on courts, lawyers, and a maze of legal bureaucracy to ensure that wealth is passed on according to a person’s wishes. But blockchain technology introduces a new frontier: inheritance protocols governed by smart contracts that can autonomously execute upon predefined conditions—no third parties required.

Imagine an on-chain will that releases assets to your children after a certain date, or only if biometric activity shows you’ve been inactive for six months. You could program a smart contract to distribute funds based on specific life events: graduation, marriage, childbirth, or even community contributions tracked via digital attestations. Assets could be divided among heirs instantly, in a verifiable and dispute-resistant manner, with logic built directly into the code. This isn’t just a digital will—it’s a living, programmable trust that adapts to changing conditions. Traditional finance cannot offer this level of automation or logic-driven execution because the legal and financial systems are disconnected. With blockchain, inheritance becomes part of your ongoing digital presence—responsive, precise, and incorruptible.

5. Earning from Gameplay, Attention, or Emotion

What if emotions had a value market? In the emerging crypto economy, we are already seeing inklings of “play-to-earn” and “watch-to-earn” models—but what lies ahead is far more radical: the monetization of emotional labor, presence, and attention. With biometric sensors, neural interfaces, and engagement-tracking oracles on the horizon, users may soon be able to tokenize and sell their emotional resonance, reactions, or even dream content.

Imagine participating in a virtual experience—whether a game, a film, or an immersive world—where your emotional response is measured and compensated. Joy, empathy, awe, or attention could be captured, verified, and traded as data-backed proof of engagement. A singer’s song might pay listeners who truly “felt” it. A game might reward players not just for playing, but for experiencing intense focus or delight. With blockchain-based micropayments and privacy-preserving zero-knowledge proofs, these experiences could remain secure, consent-based, and transparent.

Traditional banks can’t process or validate this kind of value—they’re built for currency, not consciousness. But in the crypto world, emotion itself may become a form of capital. As the line between experience and economy blurs, we may begin to earn not just from what we do—but from what we feel.

Earn by growing, not by owning—where contribution becomes capital.

6. Proof-of-Growth Economies

What if contribution minted capital? In today’s economy, wealth typically flows to those who begin with capital, not necessarily to those who create the most value. But what if the rules were reversed? Blockchain enables the creation of Proof-of-Growth economies—systems where economic rewards are tied directly to learning, participation, and contribution, rather than to upfront financial investment. In these models, tokens are distributed to individuals who help an ecosystem grow: by sharing knowledge, onboarding new users, improving governance, or contributing to public goods.

Imagine a platform where you earn tokens for teaching others, mentoring in a DAO, or contributing open educational resources. These tokens might then grant you voting power, access to new opportunities, or even future revenue shares. The more you grow—and help others grow—the more your influence and economic stake increase. This flips the incentive model: growth becomes the engine of wealth creation, not just a side effect. Traditional financial systems don’t support this because they lack real-time, decentralized mechanisms for tracking merit and contribution. But on-chain, every action can be verified, and every effort can be rewarded. It’s not about being first—it’s about being valuable.

7. Fully Private, Verifiable Transactions (ZK-Based)

What if privacy and compliance could coexist? In the traditional banking world, transactions are either private (like with cash) or they are fully visible to institutions, regulators, and often hackers. Blockchain, ironically, started as fully transparent—every transaction, balance, and address was visible to all. But the next evolution brings a radical new possibility: zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) that allow transactions to remain private while still being provably valid. In other words, you can prove something happened—without revealing what it was, how much it involved, or who was involved.

This opens the door to a new kind of financial integrity—one where individuals and institutions can maintain privacy without sacrificing accountability. You could prove you paid taxes, hold sufficient collateral, or met regulatory standards—without disclosing any sensitive details. ZKPs could enable confidential auctions, anonymous voting, or private corporate finance, all on-chain and trustless. Unlike traditional banks, which must hold and protect your data, ZK-based systems don’t require data disclosure at all. They verify proofs, not information. In a world increasingly defined by surveillance, blockchain could paradoxically become the strongest protector of personal and institutional privacy—without losing the ability to trust.

Not just currency—code that carries meaning, power, and purpose.

8. Composable, Nested Currencies

What if a coin could be more than just money? In the traditional financial world, currency is one-dimensional—either you have it or you don’t. But blockchain enables an entirely different architecture: composable, nested currencies that contain logic, layers of meaning, or bundled assets within them. Think of a token that isn’t just a store of value, but also carries voting rights in a DAO, access credentials to an event, and a revenue share from a digital product—all in one unit. These aren’t currencies you simply spend; they’re currencies you use—interactively, dynamically, and across multiple layers of context.

This composability allows entire ecosystems to form around custom value units. A token for a local community could include governance privileges, access to services, and an embedded inflation rule tied to participation. Or a creative’s personal token might grant fans voting power over which project to pursue next, while also giving them future royalties. These currencies are self-aware and context-sensitive, transforming economic interaction into a living, programmable experience. Legacy banking infrastructure is fundamentally unfit to support this level of modularity. It sees money as static. Blockchain sees it as expressive, adaptive, and alive.

9. Governance-Responsive Assets

What if your money could respond to how your community votes? Blockchain allows assets to be governance-responsive, meaning they can change their behavior based on the outcome of democratic processes. In traditional finance, shareholder votes are slow, disconnected from the underlying instruments, and mostly symbolic. But in crypto-native systems, assets themselves can be designed to listen to on-chain decisions and react accordingly. Inflation parameters could change when a supermajority of token holders approve. A token could self-burn if unethical practices are voted out. Entire treasuries could unlock—or freeze—based on community sentiment.

This redefines what it means to hold value. Ownership is no longer passive; it’s participatory. Assets aren’t inert—they’re active instruments of governance, accountability, and adaptation. For example, a project token could reward long-term voters more than short-term speculators, or reallocate unused funds based on community-determined goals. It’s like owning shares that vote with you, not just represent you. Traditional banking systems cannot offer this because value is separated from governance. But blockchain enables money that moves with the will of its people—transparent, responsive, and alive with collective intention.

Value that unlocks with time, identity, and intent—not permission.

10. Time-Locked and Identity-Locked Value Systems

What if your money only worked when you were ready—or truly qualified? In a blockchain-native world, we can build time-locked and identity-locked value systems, where assets become usable only under specific conditions. This could mean releasing tokens to a child only after they turn eighteen, enabling student loan disbursements only once verified enrollment is confirmed, or restricting access to governance rights until a contributor completes a learning module or passes a DAO-issued credential.

These programmable restrictions don’t require a human gatekeeper—they rely on code, cryptographic proofs, and decentralized oracles. A token could check a digital ID, validate an academic credential, or reference an on-chain timestamp before allowing itself to move or be spent. This creates powerful new forms of accountability and long-term planning. You can embed trust, patience, and identity verification directly into money itself. Traditional banks and governments are incapable of managing such fluid, programmable value controls at scale. Their systems require centralized verification and slow human processes. Blockchain lets us treat money like software—flexible, rule-based, and deeply context-aware.

11. Risk-Aware Dynamic Assets

What if your money could sense risk—and adapt in real time? In the world of finance, risk is typically managed through fixed rules, external assessments, or retroactive responses. But in the crypto space, we can create risk-aware dynamic assets that evolve based on live market conditions, protocol activity, or external events fed in through oracles. Imagine a token that increases its transaction fee during high volatility, or one that slows its transfer speed when suspicious activity is detected across a connected wallet network. Even more radically, an asset could reallocate yield or adjust its collateral ratio depending on war, weather, or governance turmoil.

These are not passive stores of value. They’re self-regulating instruments—code that reacts to complexity. DeFi already experiments with some adaptive mechanisms like rebasing tokens or algorithmic stablecoins, but future iterations could integrate real-time AI analytics, decentralized insurance triggers, and adaptive governance. Traditional financial systems cannot match this level of agility or responsiveness. They’re structured around periodic audits and policy-based adjustments. Dynamic assets, by contrast, are always awake—constantly reconfiguring themselves to optimize for stability, security, or opportunity. In this vision, money doesn’t just sit—it listens.

Every creator, their own central bank—run by AI, governed by code.

12. AI-Native Treasury Systems for Micro-Organizations

What if every small project or creator had their own central bank—run by AI? In today’s world, treasury management is something only large institutions can afford to take seriously. The overhead is too high, the compliance too complex, and the tools too fragmented. But blockchain makes it possible for even the smallest team—or even an individual—to launch a self-managing, AI-native treasury that handles budgeting, revenue allocation, liquidity management, and incentive design automatically.

These treasuries could plug into DeFi protocols to earn yield, rebalance risk, or distribute rewards. An artist could mint a token that routes 5% of every resale to their fund, which is then managed by an AI agent trained on their goals: saving for a studio, investing in collaborators, or even seeding new works. A DAO with just a dozen members could use an on-chain treasury that proposes, votes on, and implements budgetary moves autonomously. Traditional finance simply doesn’t offer this level of tooling at the micro-scale. But in a decentralized world, money management isn’t a privilege reserved for the powerful—it’s a protocol, accessible to all, and infinitely customizable through logic and machine learning.

Final Thoughts: The Money That’s Waiting to Be Born

We often talk about crypto as a revolution against the banks—but the real revolution lies ahead. The true promise of blockchain isn’t just to digitize what already exists; it’s to invent entirely new classes of financial behavior. In a world of programmable assets, trustless governance, and interoperable systems, money stops being a static store of value and becomes a living design space—malleable, reactive, expressive. We can embed our ethics, our intelligence, our intentions directly into capital. Money can earn, adapt, decide, and evolve.

None of this is possible within traditional banking. The pipes are too rigid. The rules too centralized. The trust too fragile. But with blockchain and AI, we’re not limited by what came before. We are limited only by what we dare to design. The financial superpowers outlined here—autonomous income, trustless inheritance, risk-reactive assets, reputation-based credit, emotion-backed markets—are not science fiction. They are prototypes-in-waiting. All they need is imagination, code, and will.
We don’t just need better money. We need new money—the kind that works for creators, learners, players, and dreamers. The kind of money that wasn’t possible before—but suddenly, now is.

As the global banking system experiences increasing turbulence, a growing number of influential individuals have begun asking crucial questions about 2040 and the future of the banking industry.

What will the landscape of banking look like in 2040? Will physical branches still be relevant? What will be the primary functions and services of banks? And, is there a future where banks may no longer be necessary?

What if Banks Disappeared?

The scenario of banks disappearing completely is highly unlikely, but let’s consider the possibility. If banks ceased to exist, how we handle financial transactions would change drastically. That said, there are some alternatives that could potentially replace the traditional banking system.

One possibility is a peer-to-peer (P2P) lending system. In this system, individuals or businesses could borrow money directly from other individuals, bypassing the need for a bank. This type of system already exists, with platforms like LendingClub and Prosper offering P2P lending services. The loans are typically unsecured and have higher interest rates than traditional bank loans. Still, they can be a viable option for those who do not qualify for traditional loans or who want to avoid the fees and bureaucracy associated with banks.

Another option is using digital currencies, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum. These currencies are decentralized, meaning any central authority, like a bank, does not control them. Transactions are verified through a public ledger called the blockchain, ensuring they are secure and transparent. Digital currencies are still relatively new and not widely accepted, but they can potentially revolutionize how we handle financial transactions.

Mobile payment systems could also play a role in the absence of banks. These systems, such as Apple Pay and Google Wallet, allowing users to pay using smartphones. They are convenient and easy to use but rely on traditional banks to process transactions.

Although it is highly unlikely that banks will cease to exist, there are alternative systems that could potentially replace them. These include P2P lending, digital currencies, and mobile payment systems. However, each of these systems has its own strengths and weaknesses, and it remains to be seen which will emerge as the dominant force in the future of financial transactions.

Strengthening the Role of Banks

While many people are trying to reduce our dependence on traditional banks, the banking industry itself is looking for ways to strengthen its role in society:

Increase transparency and accountability:

One of the main criticisms of the banking industry is its lack of transparency, which has led to mistrust among customers and the public. Banks can strengthen their societal role by being more transparent about their operations, fees, and practices. They can also increase accountability by implementing stronger regulations and penalties for unethical or illegal behavior.

Focus on social responsibility:

Banks can strengthen their role in society by being more socially responsible. This includes supporting community development initiatives, investing in sustainable projects, and promoting financial literacy.

Embrace technology:

The banking industry has been slow to embrace technology, but this is changing. Banks can strengthen their role in society by investing in innovative technologies that make banking more accessible, efficient, and secure. For example, mobile banking apps, online banking, and digital wallets can make banking more convenient for customers.

Improve customer experience:

Banks can strengthen their role in society by improving the customer experience. This includes offering personalized services, simplifying the account opening process, and providing better customer service.

Foster diversity and inclusion:

White men have historically dominated the banking industry, but this is changing. Banks can strengthen their role in society by fostering diversity and inclusion in their hiring practices and leadership teams.

The Impact of Cryptocurrencies?

Cryptocurrencies have had a notable impact on the banking system in various ways, and this influence is likely to continue and expand before 2040. Here are some key areas where cryptocurrencies have affected the banking sector and how they might continue to do so:

Digital payments and remittances:

Cryptocurrencies have introduced a new way of transferring value across borders with reduced fees and faster transaction times compared to traditional banking channels. Banks have started recognizing this potential and are exploring blockchain technology and digital currencies to improve their payment services. By 2040, banks could adopt or develop their own digital currencies to facilitate more efficient cross-border transactions.

Decentralized finance (DeFi):

DeFi platforms built on blockchain technology have provided an alternative to traditional banking services, including lending, borrowing, and earning interest. This has led some banks to explore partnerships with DeFi platforms or develop their own blockchain-based financial products. By 2040, banks may integrate DeFi solutions into their offerings, providing customers with more innovative and flexible financial services.

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs):

The rise of cryptocurrencies has prompted central banks to explore the development of CBDCs. These digital currencies have the potential to reshape the banking landscape by offering faster, cheaper, and more secure transactions. By 2040, CBDCs may become widely adopted, leading to significant changes in how banks operate and interact with central banks.

Enhanced security and transparency:

Blockchain technology, the foundation of cryptocurrencies, offers improved security and transparency compared to traditional banking systems. Banks have started to explore and adopt blockchain technology to improve their operations, from streamlining back-office processes to enhancing the security of transactions. By 2040, banks may widely adopt blockchain-based systems, resulting in a more secure and transparent banking infrastructure.

Regulatory changes:

The rise of cryptocurrencies has led to increased scrutiny and regulation from financial authorities worldwide. Banks have had to adapt to these changing regulatory requirements, which may impact their operations and risk management practices. By 2040, banks will likely need to continue adapting to new regulations concerning digital assets and blockchain technology.

Competition and innovation:

Cryptocurrencies and related technologies have introduced new competition for traditional banks, pushing them to innovate and adapt to stay relevant. As a result, banks have begun to explore new business models and technologies, such as digital wallets, robo-advisory services, and blockchain applications. By 2040, banks may operate in a more competitive and innovative landscape, focusing more on digital services and customer-centric solutions.

Financial inclusion:

Cryptocurrencies offer the potential to increase financial inclusion, providing access to financial services for unbanked and underbanked populations. Banks may choose to leverage digital currencies and blockchain technology to reach these underserved markets, expanding their customer base and promoting financial inclusion. By 2040, banks may be more significant in fostering financial inclusion through digital financial services.

By 2040, banks may need to adapt to a more digitized and competitive landscape, incorporating blockchain technology, digital currencies, and innovative financial solutions to serve their customers better and stay relevant in the evolving financial ecosystem.

The Rise of Digital Nomads

The rise of digital nomads will likely significantly impact the banking system in 2040. As more people work remotely and travel worldwide, they will likely require more flexible banking solutions to accommodate their lifestyles. This could include online banking services that are accessible from anywhere in the world, as well as mobile banking apps that allow digital nomads to manage their finances on the go.

In addition, digital nomads will likely require more flexible payment solutions to accommodate their global lifestyle. This could include digital currencies, such as Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, that can be used to make payments across borders without the need for traditional banking intermediaries. Additionally, digital nomads may rely on peer-to-peer payment platforms like PayPal or Venmo to send and receive money from other digital nomads worldwide.

When it comes to paying taxes, digital nomads are likely to face a number of challenges. Because they work remotely and travel frequently, they may not have a fixed tax residence, which can make it difficult to determine where they should pay taxes. In addition, they may be subject to tax laws in multiple countries, which can be complex and difficult to navigate.

To address these challenges, some governments are exploring new tax laws and regulations specifically designed for digital nomads. For example, some countries are considering the introduction of a “digital nomad visa” that would allow digital nomads to work and pay taxes in that country for a set period of time. Other countries are exploring new tax laws allowing digital nomads to pay taxes based on the number of days they spend in that country rather than their fixed tax residence.

Are CBDCs a Direct Competitor to Cryptocurrencies?

CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) and cryptocurrencies are not direct competitors as they have different purposes and characteristics. CBDCs are digital versions of fiat currencies that are issued by a central bank and regulated by government authorities with strict anti-money laundering rules in place. CBDCs are centralized, meaning that access and alteration of the blockchain are controlled by central entities and can only be used as a means of payment, with hoarding or investment activity is openly forbidden.

On the other hand, cryptocurrencies are decentralized digital assets hosted by a public and permissionless blockchain network that anyone can access. Cryptocurrencies can be used as payments or investments and can be transferred between users without the need for intermediaries.

Therefore, CBDCs and cryptocurrencies have different use cases and functionalities and can coexist without being direct competitors. However, the debate about CBDCs versus cryptocurrencies will likely become louder in the years ahead.

Final Thoughts

The future of banking in 2040 will vastly differ from what it is today, driven by factors such as evolving technologies, changing consumer behavior, and the growing influence of cryptocurrencies.

While the disappearance of banks altogether is highly unlikely, the industry must adapt and innovate to stay relevant in an increasingly digital and competitive landscape.

By 2040, banks may emphasize digital services, customer-centric solutions, and blockchain technology while promoting financial inclusion and integrating DeFi solutions into their offerings. Central bank digital currencies, cryptocurrencies, and peer-to-peer lending platforms are poised to play an increasingly significant role in the financial ecosystem, with the potential to reshape traditional banking operations.

As the financial landscape evolves, banks must continue to embrace new technologies, improve customer experiences, and foster diversity and inclusion, ensuring they remain an essential part of the global economy in 2040 and beyond.

I’ve always been bullish on crypto. Not necessarily as a short-term speculative investment strategy but because of its promise to accommodate many future aspects of personal finance. The industry and some of its products have had some pretty spectacular ups and downs in the past five years, but I tend to think of them as growing pains and learning experiences.

Recently, the crypto exchange FTX made a series of bad decisions that have blown up in its face, and almost instantly, it faced a run on its assets, a run it couldn’t accommodate. To be fair, FTX in the recent past, has stepped in to rescue lesser, smaller crypto organizations in similar straits, providing the liquidity these companies needed to weather their predicaments and protect their customers and investors. But in doing so, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried also put his own company at risk.

When FTX faced its own liquidity crisis due to those bailouts and some other questionable moves by its affiliated trading firm Alameda Research, FTX proved NOT to be too-big-to-fail, and saviors were nowhere to be found. Few exchanges were large enough to step in to save it. Binance, a fierce competitor of FTX, took some furtive steps in that direction but quickly backed off, realizing no doubt that they might be caught up in the same quicksand. Another exchange, OKX, declined to step in as well.

Like similar episodes in this market, the FTX tale provides lessons to build on. And one of the lessons is that there are regulatory gaps in the industry. But if these are addressed thoughtfully and correctly, the fixes can sustain this industry.

Ironically, the trigger for this whole debacle was Sam Bankman-Fried voicing a pro-regulatory stance and Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao taking exception to his position. This is a feud that practically guarantees a greater regulatory presence.

Regulatory reform can be good to a point, but it’s a very slippery slope away from turning crypto into something that looks like another heavily regulated banking industry.

Achieving Regulatory Balance

If crypto is going to become an everyday commodity for the majority of people in this world, which I think is inevitable and good, it will need to step out from the shadows and into the light of day.

Too many early crypto enthusiasts basked in the counter-culture aspect of it – a wild, wild west with supposedly foolproof systems of self-policing and security based on the immutability of the blockchain. They loved being smarter than the rest of us.

While we owe a lot to these early adopters, it’s still a long way from reaching everyday widespread use. For many, it still exudes geekish interfaces and a confounding vocabulary that keep the common people away.

The mainstreaming of crypto will never happen until the public stops reading scary stories about failing exchanges, crypto crashes, paper losses in the billions of dollars, and market hyper-volatility.

The U.S. and other world governments now feel that they need to step in and assume a more active role. That may be seen as an unwelcome intrusion into the libertarian-minded entrepreneurs’ world that currently manages cryptocurrencies and exchanges and want to take us to the next level.

The Challenge of Regulating Cryptocurrency

Regulating crypto will be tricky. FTX was based in the Bahamas, so more stringent U.S. regulatory standards, had they been in place, would likely not have made a difference. Ever since the days of Swiss bank accounts, investors have sought havens in low oversight, distant international environments.

But operating inside the regulatory gaps of other countries will work against crypto in the long run. Will the average novice crypto user, the kind that needs help with their mainstream financial tools, trust their transactions and retirement savings to a financial house of cards based in the Bahamas? Not likely.

If crypto is to be an accepted retirement savings tool, for example, it has to be seen as relatively safe, over a long period of time, by the average person, not just the crypto enthusiast. When a crypto organization can demonstrate it’s subject to and complying with the laws and rules of the U.S. government, it not only provides investor assurance, it can also be a selling point.

That’s why I find it so interesting that Abra, a well-known crypto exchange and lending platform, is planning to launch the first U.S.-regulated crypto bank early in 2023.

The Crypto industry in the U.S. is already more regulated than in most other countries. The Security and Exchange Commission has taken bites at that apple based on how crypto can be considered a security in some cases. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission also is very interested in this space, given the commission’s purview of regulating futures and commodities trading.

Policymaking is messy, to begin with, especially in cases where generalist policymakers try to keep up with technical innovation. Regulators are better informed on emerging crypto applications than all but a handful of members of Congress and committee staff. That’s why, in the world of Washington, things work best when policymakers give broad policy guidance and limited authority to specialized regulators who flesh out the details, subject to oversight.

Consumer Education

We’re seeing some progress in making consumers familiar and comfortable with cryptocurrency and exchanges, thanks to campaigns and products even a boomer can understand. But we need to be even more active on that front end as well.

Our K-12 education system and curricula are falling short in a number of areas – from history to civics to economics. Today’s fifth grader is tomorrow’s consumer and investor. They need to understand their currency and investment/savings options. That includes the underpinnings of cryptocurrency – not just how the app works.

And crypto companies need to accept the fact that their industry is only as strong and legitimate as their weakest link. U.S. regulators, whether the SEC or other appropriate agencies, need to act fast so that U.S.-based crypto products and exchanges are seen as the gold standard (no irony intended!) in the world and, thus, the most attractive for users and investors.

The major players in crypto are now far too beat up to truly resist the drumbeat of regulation, as a new era of crypto is about to begin. And if regulators aren’t able to rein in riskier players in this sector, the market will – as evidenced in recent weeks.

That said, we run the risk of over-regulating and potentially killing many of the emerging technologies in this space that are now percolating to the top.

“Open banking” will soon be the backbone of our financial services landscape, driving consumer financial activity as well as financial institution service models. It will provide a level of convenience and value that today’s (and especially yesterday’s) traditional banks and financial services companies can’t even come close to meeting.

Let’s consider these three examples:

1. Applying for a Mortgage

How about a mortgage application process where you don’t have to serve as a middle person to pull together all the necessary financial records?

2. Managing Your Personal Finances

How would you like to empower personal financial management services to access specific details about your spending history, various asset accounts, loan and credit card balances, insurance policies, and other critical information so that you can get a personalized plan for promoting your long-term financial success?

3. Setting Up Automated Payments

How about an automated payment system encompassing all of your finance-related accounts and subscriptions to securely process purchases, payments, and other obligations?

Open banking does all of this and more by creating API-enabling interfaces between banks, financial institutions, and any other third-party providers (TPPs) or financial-related services that a user chooses to loop in.

After all, it can be argued that it’s our data, and we should be able to create the kinds of efficiencies in managing it and obtain the insights that lie within it for our own benefit.

The technology behind this next generation of financial service integration shares financial information electronically between institutions for purposes the customer can authorize and approve – access and integration that can’t be provided solely through a bank.

In other words, open banking offers unparalleled financial data continuity.

Open Bank Data Security

The initial reaction to the concept of open banking from many people outside the financial industry is to question the wisdom of creating what appears to be more points of access for more people and systems in more areas of a person’s sensitive financial history. It’s an understandable reaction and it’s right to be cautious and wary.

But we already face those kinds of data security risks every day with each of the dozens of accounts we maintain. Reputable APIs pose no more or less risk … plus open banking doesn’t require access to, or the use of, customer passwords as do the current aggregate systems.

The alternative, current financial aggregator systems are far less secure. They rely on “screen scraping” – a monolithic information-gathering practice that grabs far more user financial data from your accounts than is needed for any particular activity and then stores it, along with your account credentials, i.e., user names and passwords.

This process initially was used as a convenience for financial institutions so they didn’t have to reenter data. But the treasure trove of information that’s swept into those databases makes them ripe for exploitation, theft, and other fraudulent activities.

In contrast, open banking through APIs provides direct access to only the payment and financial account data needed for each task and without accessing the accounts via formal credentials.

Still, open banking security is important. That’s why we need a solid regulatory structure around it to ensure the systems utilize and integrate only approved trustworthy APIs and that the data they’re entrusted with is well-protected. Consumers must be able to maintain ultimate control of, and rights to, their data.

Most observers agree that it’s high time the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, responsible for consumer financial data matters, gets more active in these matters to provide these assurances. Consumers want open banking. Banks and financial institutions want to offer it.

Open Banking is Over There

As this PWC analysis lays out, the UK has made the most headway with open banking, and banks there are required to cooperate with approved Third-Party Providers. The banking industry there began exploring the concept of open banking in 2016, taking a strong consumer service expansion approach.

The EU was working in this area at the same time, focusing on standards for consumer convenience and security to provide a framework for member nations to adopt in their own open banking policies.

But What About Here?

By contrast, open banking in the U.S. is still industry-driven, happening in the vacuum of government guidance as noted above. Many banks are working with core providers like FIS, Fiserv, and JHA that have already developed and continue to maintain the necessary, secure API-based infrastructure. Alternatively, banks have the opportunity to incorporate their own API tools on top of that core.

Additionally, industry groups are developing protocols for API security performance. Individual banks are working with core providers and fintechs to implement agreements on APIs and data usage. Millions of Americans are benefitting from these early adoptions of open banking

But public and institutional acceptance in the U.S. will lag behind much of the rest of the world unless a strong regulatory infrastructure is put in place that provides both consumer and institutional confidence to engage.

A banking industry group recently pointed out that the UK structured their open banking regulatory approach around three pillars:

• Outlawing data scraping as a means to access personal financial data.
• Requiring fintechs and other participants to be authorized to engage in open banking services only after they demonstrate appropriate privacy, security, and liability protection.
• Prohibiting the use of customer data in ways not authorized by the customer.

This seems like a reasonable framework, and I believe we’ll see a similar regulatory structure emerge in the U.S. within a few years – after all, nothing happens quickly in Washington!

Within a decade, the average U.S. citizen will have a far more effective way to utilize their own financial data for personal financial planning, payments management, subscription management, personal loan activity, and to access a wider variety of financial products.

During the 1980s and 90s, I owned a couple of Baskin Robbins stores which were mostly cash businesses during that era. On its way to our commercial bank account, the cash got counted a minimum of seven times: during the customer transaction, at shift changes, at the end of the day, when preparing the deposit, when making the deposit, etc.

Cash is certainly not always “king,” and when you think about it, cash can seem downright archaic.

Cash is still hanging in there

Yes, cash may someday go away, and in fact, it’s already close in a few countries around the world, but there’s something to be said about cash being the only survivable form of money in the event of a disaster like a giant solar flare or WWIII.

By “cash,” I mean bills and coins – not checks or debit cards, even though they’re tied directly to cash accounts. Those, in fact, are cashless options.

In many situations, cash may still be the only option for a transaction at our favorite store. Small retailers often don’t want the hassle of accepting credit cards or paying merchant fees that accompany these transactions. Further, in a cashless society, it may be difficult to pay the neighborhood kids running their lemonade stand or throw in $10 at an impromptu pass-the-hat charity event?

Some consider society’s cashless goals to be elitist. Pre-pandemic, an estimated 7% of the U.S. population was “unbanked,” i.e., with no bank accounts and with cash as their only option for daily purchases. In addition, many people are under-banked without access to banking tools like credit cards or online payment apps.

Solutions to some of these challenges are pretty clear. In time, lemonade stand kids will utilize social media-based payment accounts. Crowdfunding apps like GoFundMe and others provide on-the-spot options to support a good cause when the impromptu giving spirit moves us. Stubborn retailers will lose out on business to the point where they’ll need to provide electronic payment options.

The challenge of the unbanked and underbanked population, though, will be the last one solved as we’ll see below.

COVID Propelled the Cashless Migration

We certainly took a huge step toward a “less-cash” system during the pandemic. In 2020 we were concerned about contact transmission of the virus from currency and coins or any surface for that matter. Much of our commerce shifted to online. Many people began making all of their in-store transactions, no matter how small, with credit or debit cards because it seemed like a safer option.

Cash transactions were still possible, but soon we started seeing posted signs at store checkouts requiring an exact change or stating it might not be possible for the cashier to provide exact change due to coinage shortages. Pocket change was stacking up in containers at home instead of being kept handy in a change purse or pocket.

If it weren’t for the desire to give well-deserved, cash-based service provider tips during this period, few of us would have carried or used any cash at all during much of 2020 and 2021.

What Will Replace Cash?

A good question to ask is, are we better off without cash? And why?

In 50 years, greenbacks and coinage may indeed be relics and collectors’ items.

Our purchases are certainly tending toward digital money – carried out in a number of forms. What each of our transactions will look like will depend on what’s in our electronic wallet (e.g., a bank account, a crypto account, or a line of credit in either of those denominations) and our preferred method of linking to our accounts (credit cards, debit cards, and online payment apps).

Cryptocurrency will be the e-currency behind an increasing number of these transactions. Crypto’s foundation in distributed ledger technology makes it extremely secure and private. As of now, we’re not quite at the point where we can pay for an ice cream cone with bitcoin, but cryptocurrency debit cards tied to a crypto account are showing great promise for e-commerce and to a growing extent for in-person retail purchases, at this time mostly for high-end items like jewelry, cars, electronics, and some services.

Crypto-based revolving lines of credit in the form of credit cards are also available and soon we’ll be at the point where the distinction between crypto- and fiat currency-based cards will be blurred and we’ll have the option to choose one or the other at the time of purchase.

Online payment apps and mobile device services, like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, and others, will flourish as well. These accounts (either crypto or fiat currency-based) will continue to be tied to an increasing variety of bank accounts and credit card accounts or linked directly to balances we maintain on those apps. Venmo even adds a social media element to the transactions: Spending money with friends is fun!

What About Checks?

Checks are one of the earliest forms of cashless transactions in modern times, but their use is rapidly declining. Fewer stores accept checks these days and even fewer Gen Z’ers even know how to write them … or have had to write them! Check fraud recently is way up as well. Most of us write only a handful of checks each year – for unique circumstances and not at all for day-to-day transactions.

Still, checks, or something with a similar look and feel, will always be an option for drawing on an account of any type. There will be significant fees attached to these transactions, though, given the extra steps involved in processing these payments.

Cashless Implications on Criminal Behavior

Cash, for all of its inherent inefficiencies, has the benefit of being an anonymous facilitator of commerce. Cash transactions leave no trail except maybe a fingerprint or serial number on a $50 bill. For that reason, going cashless will be bad for the business of crime. Digital footprints are almost always trackable with enough effort, especially when the user creates a vulnerability or is targeted for hacking.

Certain aspects of law enforcement will change dramatically. Rather than patrolling or seeking informants regarding drug trafficking, for example, cyber expert police officers will be safe at their computers uncovering and tracing now-discoverable money flows. “Following the money” to uncover the crime and catch the criminal will be the daily norm.

Learning from Sweden … and what I call the 100% Certainty Conundrum

Sweden is often held up as a groundbreaking nation when it comes to going cashless. Remarkably, only 1% of the country’s GDP is held in cash, compared to 8% in the U.S. Swedish retailers are allowed to refuse cash for purchases and the country is exploring developing an electronic version of their national currency (e-krona), which is a 1:1 equivalent of the cash version of their krona.

It’s important to know, that the e-krona isn’t a cryptocurrency and it’s not blockchain-based. Citizens can hold their e-krona on a card or in an app.

Recently, though, the seemingly inevitable shift to going completely cashless in Sweden is becoming significantly less inevitable. Like any kind of “all-or-nothing” technology transition, utopia inevitably meets reality, in this case, the unbanked and underbanked, who make up the last few percent of users.

The 100% Certainty Conundrum creates gates to the future in a number of ways. We see it, for example, in the “need” for 100% safety when it comes to self-driving car technology. We may be 99% there, but the technology won’t be fully embraced until that elusive 1% is accounted for (even though human-driver safety rates will never achieve that 100% standard).

In the case of Sweden’s and any other country’s cashless utopia, it won’t happen until we can achieve 100% usability and acceptance of a combination of e-currency and other cashless options. The issue of the unbanked and underbanked, the last 1-2% of the population, must be solved before any government will dare enforce a cash-free system of national commerce.

Keep in mind, that solving the equation for the final 1% becomes exponentially more difficult as we approach zero.

And the onus for a cashless economic system is truly on the government. In the U.S., some small retailers have gotten too far out ahead of the curve on going cash-free and ended up having to reverse course in the face of disgruntled customers and lost sales. Some states and major cities, in fact, have passed laws prohibiting businesses from operating cash-free, citing the concerns of unbanked and underbanked citizens.

For those people who don’t trust banks, and that becomes a much greater percentage during a recession, having cash stocked away in a secret place at home, is a comforting form of security.

For now, that means that in Sweden, Norway, Finland, and other countries, the best we can hope for is going mostly cash-free.

Does that mean we’ll never go completely cash-free? Perhaps! Progress comes in fits, starts, and occasional backward steps. If nothing else, progress is virtually always messy.

“These are the times that try men’s souls!” Over the past few days, I’ve heard several people use this Thomas Paine quote!

A crash in cryptocurrency prices has wiped away countless billions in value over the past few days as the price of Bitcoin plunged to its lowest point since 2020. While the crypto markets had been experiencing considerable volatility over the past few months, it all came to a head this week, all triggered by the crash of the Terra stablecoin, and the cryptocurrency, Luna, that it is linked to. Terra failed to maintain its dollar peg which, in turn, triggered a collapse in Luna’s price, causing the entire crypto ecosystem to take a nosedive.

Rest assured, cryptocurrencies are not going away, but this market readjustment is causing people to reevaluate why they’re important, and part of this rethinking involves the strategies behind their mainnets.

What is a Mainnet?

Every cryptocurrency needs a blockchain network in order to function … but not all cryptocurrencies have their own blockchains.

Digital currencies that maintain their own unique blockchain network, referred to as a mainnet, are more likely to be the ones that last into the future, providing unique value and service.

Why is a Dedicated Mainnet Important for a Cryptocurrency?

Many factors can help determine whether a cryptocurrency might be valuable and worthwhile in the long run. Visibility, wallet accessibility, acceptance, market cap, circulating supply, community size, team experience, and the management team’s commitment to making ongoing upgrades or revisions are all important things to consider when looking at the ongoing viability of a cryptocurrency.

And so is the uniqueness of the coin – the protocols, tokenomics, and business strategy behind it that make the transactions faster and less costly and that provide special functionality. Related to this is the blockchain’s reliability and security.

These features are best proven in the context of a rigorous testing environment. The gold standard for this is the testing that happens in a safe “testnet” setting within another existing mainnet.

Governing Structures for Mainnets

Since Mainnets operate outside the boundary of a single country, and outside the purview of any existing authority, it has become customary to establish a non-profit Foundation as the governing entity to both help develop strategies and manage the inner workings of the Mainnet.

Since blockchains are a relatively new technology, we still haven’t seen the full extent of their capabilities, and these capabilities will continue to grow as we incorporate more tools, precision, scalability, and extensibility into the mainnets.

The Birth and Emergence of New Utility Tokens

At any given time, there are over 20,000 developers working on cryptocurrency platforms.

Most new cryptocurrencies are developed on top of another existing mainnet, in a safe “testnet” environment. The testnet development is walled off from the active functions running on that mainnet by use of a unique genesis block – the first block on the testnet’s blockchain – to avoid disruptions or worse of that mainnet if issues occur during this testing phase. Testnets are commonly used for new blockchain testing as well as smart contracts, NFTs, DAOs, DeFi, DEXs, dApps, and other features.

In the case of blockchain development, developers typically choose a mainnet “host” for their testnet activity that’s similar in function and design to its own project. Mainnets like Ethereum and Polkadot are the most popular networks for testnet activity, while Terra, Solana, and NEAR have shown the most recent growth in that area.

As developers evaluate and refine the features and functions of their testnets, they use fake crypto coinage with no value to simulate transactions.

When testing is complete, and the testnet’s features have proved to live up to the functionality promised in the developer’s white paper, the project team can transition their testnet platform and launch its own mainnet, often with published code.

Its status as a mainnet provides an added level of proof that the blockchain project is functional and ready for participation. As time goes on, developer teams will continue to refine their mainnet, an indication of a vibrant and possibly more future-proof cryptocurrency.

Implications for Quality and Longevity

This testnet-to-mainnet process is thorough, but investors who get involved early in a cryptocurrency blockchain development often do so at greater risk. Functionality promises found in a white paper can seem exciting and groundbreaking, but until the blockchain successfully emerges from the “sandbox” testing environment, nothing is certain.

However, once their mainnets are released at the conclusion of this testing process, developers are essentially stating that now their blockchain can be trusted – they’ve tested it in realistic conditions and refined it within that space before releasing it.

The Maturing of the Crypto Industry

As I stated earlier, cryptocurrency is the logical next stage of development for currency and mediums of exchange around the world.

Because crypto represents the privatization of currency, it will often struggle to compete with traditional government-backed currencies used in everyday kinds of commerce – there is no FDIC, no safety nets, and no Federal Reserve Bank to plug the leaks. So no, it’s not easy to transition a nation’s economy from a national currency to a cryptocurrency, and having a few hiccups along the way should naturally be expected.

At the heart of this revolution are the mainnet’s blockchain engines that are forging new inroads into business and industry. Thought leaders are beginning to realize that blockchains cannot succeed over the long run simply by imitating others.

For this reason, it’s the operation of mainnets that’s separating the crypto-men from the crypto-boys.

And if worse comes worse, and by some stretch of the imagination the entire crypto industry were to collapse, it would collapse forward. Just as the dot com world survived the brutal Y2K implosion of 2000, the crypto implosion of 2022 could become the launching pad for our golden future over the years ahead.

A few days ago, I was listening to episode 597 of the Bad Crypto Podcast and it was rather insightful listening to how Joel Comm and his co-host Travis Wright randomly picked cryptocurrencies from listings on CoinGecko and evaluated them on the spot using a variety of techniques and standards.

With just a cursory glance at key data points, they assessed the cryptocurrency’s market cap, years in business, professionalism of the website, underlying business model, blockchain capabilities, leadership team, major engagers, and historic fluctuation. It’s a lot of data, and once combined, can tell a pretty good story about the coin’s past and future.

The last I checked there were 13,660 different coins listed on CoinGecko, and from a newbie’s perspective it’s incredibly challenging to weed through the hype and make sense out of everything that’s taking place.

Before I continue, let me make it clear; nothing in this article is to be taken as financial advice. I am simply stating my observations and experiences. Past performance is not a guarantee of future return, nor is it indicative of future performance. Investing involves risk and the investment will fluctuate over time, and you may gain or lose money. As with all financial decisions, you should consult a licensed professional.

What’s Different About Crypto?

Cryptocurrency is the next evolution of currency and mediums of exchange in our world. We’ve already progressed from barter systems to tradeable certificates of value, to printed notes, to currency that’s based on the full faith and credit of governments, and to electronic manifestations of these notes and currencies.

What’s different about cryptocurrencies of course is they represent the privatization of currency, and thus they often struggle to compete with traditional government-backed currency in the everyday kinds of commerce. It’s not easy to transition a global or even a nation-state’s economy and commerce from a traditional national or regional currency to cryptocurrency, which has been very apparent in El Salvador.

That’s why cryptocurrencies still only fill a relatively tiny niche. But still only being a tiny niche is because of many more things than just that. They are still too geeky, too complicated, too hackable, too confusing, and too risky for the average person on the street. In short, they’re not user-friendly.

From a usability standpoint, cash is easy to understand. The denominations are clearly printed on the bills, it’s widely accepted, you don’t need a device like a phone or a computer to work with it, and even a third-grader can understand the basic elements of a transaction. But the crypto universe has a long way to go to make its coins and tokens as stupidly simple as cash.

For example, most first-time users have conventional payment systems in mind when making a transaction, similar to online banking. They instantly assume transactions have fixed fees, are reversible, and can easily be canceled, none of which are true in reality.

Most are confused about the terminology and the fundamental building blocks of crypto, including blockchain, public-key cryptography, recovery mechanisms, how to perform a transaction, and even the role of a wallet.

So far, crypto has managed to carve out a niche as an alternative investment asset. They can also be used for metaverse-based commerce (e.g., for NFTs), smart contracts, and DeFi engagement. Some retailers in the physical world are willing to accept them, but usually, as a way to enhance their brand or to entice a specific customer demographic. Outside of the metaverse, our economies still need both options.

Why So Many?

We’re still in the early days of cryptocurrency, and there’s a lot of weeding out that will happen. Cryptocurrencies are plentiful because they’re new, trendy, easy to create, and relatively unregulated – especially at the global level.

It’s also important to note that there are many different categories or types of cryptocurrencies.

For example, some are intended to serve as a global currency for mainstream transactions and investments. Within that category, we also have stablecoins, cryptocurrencies that are tied to a fixed asset (like a national currency or a commodity), which theoretically protects them and their holders from extreme price fluctuations.

Other cryptocurrencies are “project tokens” tied to specific DeFi platforms to provide ownership stakes and as a tool for governance within those spaces.

Still, others are considered “meme coins,” designed and marketed as trendy, serving primarily as speculative investments.

Moving forward, all of these types of cryptocurrencies will continue to be offered, but many individual ones will fail, putting a damper on the impulse to start new ones.

How to Choose

Here are some of the common approaches people will use to evaluate a cryptocurrency, regardless of the category:

1. Check the market listing and review data points such as Project Ranking, Market Cap, Price History, Trading Volume, Liquidity, Circulation Supply, Total Supply, Today’s Price.
2. Visit the Website for information about who’s on the Team (founders, executives, developers, partners, advisors), Roadmap, Vision, Investors, and Tokenomics.
3. Assess the cryptocurrency’s White Paper and review its information related to Objectives, Details on open-source code, Target Demographic, Roadmap, Tokenomics, and Distribution Scheme.
4. Review the cryptocurrency’s social media profiles and commentary (especially on Twitter, Telegram, Reddit, and LinkedIn) to get a feel for the experience.
5. Understand the utility and use case.
6. Check for scam alerts.
7. Assess the competing cryptocurrencies in that space.

Learning from History

In fact, roughly 1,000 cryptocurrencies have failed or were ended by their owners, including OneCoin, BitConnect, GetGems, SpaceBIT, and The DAO.

Why did they fail? Some were publicity stunts. Others were the victim of unregulated, Wild West markets at their worst, with massive fluctuations that caused investors to lose confidence. Others were mismanaged, and still, others were done in by hacker thieves. 

The breathtaking fluctuations in the significant global cryptocurrencies seem to be getting more under control and are less concerning to investors. But some experts say that a broader economic crash, possibly due to geopolitical events, could bring many more of them down. At this time, 75 cryptocurrencies are worth more than $1 billion.

How Many Cryptocurrencies Do We Need? 

In the future, we’ll need as many types of cryptocurrencies as it takes to satisfy all the purposes for cryptocurrencies, and we’re still a long way from all of the potential uses. For example, some cryptos may carve out a unique niche for specialty insurance, financing land on Mars, or funding eldercare, medical tourism, childcare, or barter networks.

Additionally, we should expect limited-time business-specific cryptos to fund startups during their initial growth phases.

We will also see a number of cryptocurrencies that will both complement and replace national currencies. These will be designed to support specific geographical constituencies. 

Token-based cryptocurrencies will continue to be developed to match metaverse and other DeFi experiences, the number of which will naturally consolidate over time reflecting normal market forces. 

There will always be room for meme-type, hyper-speculative cryptocurrencies offered in an appropriately regulated environment.

To the extent that stablecoins are tied to a national hard currency, they’ll be offered primarily as investment options. Those that are based on a global commodity, for example, gold or possibly a globally accepted national currency like the Euro or U.S. Dollar, might serve as a (not “the”) global currency.

And in the last category, the truly global cryptocurrencies are used for investment and for international commerce. In all likelihood, we’ll see just 3-4 win out in the end. 

Keep in mind, that today’s use of widely accepted credit cards emerged in the 1950s, and today consumers and market forces have caused us to settle on just a handful of companies – Visa, Mastercard, Discover, AmEx, etc. The same will happen with global transactional cryptocurrency options. The strongest global cryptocurrencies will squeeze out the rest as merchants choose which ones to accept.