Built in 1954, the Canyon Ferry Dam has stood as an engineering marvel, powering over 100,000 homes.

Modern civilization is built on precision, innovation, and control—but when one failure occurs in an interconnected system, the consequences can be unstoppable. The Canyon Ferry Disaster is more than a catastrophe; it is a cautionary tale of how a single breach can unravel decades of progress, setting off a chain reaction of destruction that no one can stop.

What began as a fracture in one dam quickly escalated into the largest infrastructure collapse in American history. One after another, dams crumbled, rivers swelled beyond control, and cities vanished beneath an unrelenting flood. The Missouri River, once a lifeline for millions, became a weapon of mass destruction, leaving entire states submerged and the nation in chaos.

This is not just the story of a disaster—it is the story of how fragile our modern world truly is. This account will trace the slow-motion nightmare that unfolded over twelve days, the desperate evacuations, and the lessons we must learn to ensure this never happens again. Because if history has taught us anything, it is this: when the first dam breaks, the clock starts ticking.

1. Setting the Stage: A Calm Before the Chaos

The Missouri River glides silently beneath the warm glow of an early spring sunset, its surface undisturbed, almost tranquil. The vast Canyon Ferry Reservoir stretches to the horizon, a colossal body of water swollen to its limits by the seasonal snowmelt. Beneath its smooth facade, 134 billion cubic feet of water press against the towering Canyon Ferry Dam, a monolith of stone and steel standing guard over Montana’s rugged landscape.

Built in 1954, the dam is more than just an engineering marvel—it is a lifeline. Its hydroelectric turbines provide power to over 100,000 homes, its waters irrigate thousands of acres of farmland, and its reservoir draws boaters, anglers, and campers seeking escape into Montana’s wilderness. At 210 feet high and 3,280 feet long, it is a sentinel of progress, a testament to mankind’s ability to tame nature’s fury.

But below the surface, unseen and unforgiving forces are at play.

Downstream, the Missouri River winds its way through a chain of dams, each a critical link in the region’s infrastructure. The Hauser Dam, just 14 miles away, holds 5 billion cubic feet of water in check. Farther down, 30 miles from Canyon Ferry, the Holter Dam contains another 12 billion cubic feet. Together, these structures balance power and control, protecting Helena, Great Falls, and dozens of smaller communities nestled along the riverbanks.

Beyond them, the Missouri River Basin sprawls across the heartland, home to over 2.5 million people who depend on its waters for drinking, industry, and agriculture. While only a fraction of them live within the immediate floodplain, a catastrophic failure here would send shockwaves across the Midwest, disrupting power grids, supply chains, and entire economies.

Yet, on this serene evening, there are no warnings, no sirens—only a quiet, uneasy stillness. A handful of anglers cast their lines into the glassy waters, unaware that history is about to change.

Because at this very moment, a plan is in motion. A deliberate act of destruction has been set into place—one designed to exploit the river at its most vulnerable. The conspirators know the stakes. They understand the chain reaction that a single breach will unleash. And they know that within hours, this calm reservoir will become an unstoppable force of devastation.

For now, the only sounds are the splash of fish breaking the surface and the soft rustling of wind through the pines. The Canyon Ferry Dam stands, silent and unyielding.

But not for long.

The Canyon Ferry Reservoir has long been a hidden gem tucked into the mountains of Montana.

2. The Prelude to Destruction

Dressed in unremarkable fishing gear, two men unload a motorized raft on the quiet eastern edge of the Canyon Ferry Reservoir. To an untrained observer, they appear to be ordinary fishermen, blending seamlessly into the tranquil surroundings. But their actions—subtle, deliberate—betray their true intent. Weighted backpacks filled with explosives, carefully constructed to withstand the pressure and turbulence of deep water, are lowered into the raft. The payload, consisting of seven interconnected explosive packs, is designed to deliver a synchronized detonation capable of breaching even the most robust dam structures.

The dam’s spillway—its Achilles’ heel—is their target. The Canyon Ferry Dam, holding back 134 billion cubic feet of water, stands as a critical point in the Missouri River’s intricate hydrological system. A breach here would unleash catastrophic downstream consequences. The Hauser Dam, 14 miles downstream and containing 5 billion cubic feet of water, would likely fail within hours. Holter Dam, located 30 miles from Canyon Ferry and holding 12 billion cubic feet, would inevitably collapse under the combined pressure. Together, these three dams control the flow of water through a basin that directly supports over 300,000 residents in Montana while indirectly impacting millions across the Midwest.

Under the cover of nightfall, the perpetrators navigate their raft with care, steering away from any prying eyes or patrol boats. The reservoir, spanning 10 miles, offers them plenty of space to operate in relative isolation. As they approach the dam’s spillway—a point they meticulously identified as the structural weak spot—they move with precision.

Their explosives are tethered along a cable designed to span the height of the dam’s foundation. Each pack is carefully positioned at calculated depths to maximize the impact of the detonation, ensuring that the initial blast will penetrate the earth and concrete barrier holding back the massive reservoir. The tether is anchored securely to the spillway wall, and the waterproof timers are activated. The countdown begins, set to deliver devastation at precisely 12:02 a.m.

The two men work in silence, their practiced efficiency reflecting months of planning. They know the stakes: a breach at Canyon Ferry will initiate a chain reaction, leading to the catastrophic failure of dams further downstream. As they finish their task, the duo vanishes into the surrounding wilderness, leaving no trace of their presence.

This single act sets the stage for a disaster that will reshape the lives of millions. Helena, the state capital located 23 miles from Canyon Ferry, is home to over 30,000 residents who rely on the dam for water, power, and flood control. Beyond Helena, the floodwaters will race toward Great Falls, a city of 58,000, and eventually to the broader Midwest, where the economic and human toll will be felt by millions.

By midnight, the tranquility of the Montana night will give way to an engineered catastrophe as the first moments of destruction begin to unfold.

At precisely 12:02 am, the stillness of the Montana night is shattered.

3.) The Midnight Call: Emergency Crews Mobilize

At precisely 12:02 a.m., the stillness of the Montana night is shattered. A deep, concussive explosion rips through the base of Canyon Ferry Dam, sending shockwaves through the massive concrete structure. The once-unyielding wall of reinforced concrete and earth buckles, and within seconds, a catastrophic breach opens.

The reservoir, swollen with 134 billion cubic feet of water, unleashes its fury, carving a violent new channel through the canyon walls. A roaring, frothing wave surges downstream at over 30 mph, erasing roads, bridges, and homes in its path.

The Midnight Alarm: Emergency Crews Awaken

Within minutes of the explosion, emergency dispatch centers across Montana light up with frantic calls.

• Montana Highway Patrol officers jolt awake to the shrill ring of their radios, orders crackling through the speakers:
  “Evacuate all communities along the Missouri River. The dam is gone.”
• Firehouses scramble to respond, their crews grabbing gear in a blur of movement as sirens scream through sleeping towns.
• National Guard units, roused from their beds, are ordered to immediate deployment, their convoys speeding toward the rising disaster.

The news spreads in waves of disbelief and urgency.

• Dispatchers struggle to relay information, overwhelmed by a flood of 911 calls from terrified residents.
• Mayors and emergency coordinators in Helena, Great Falls, and beyond are jolted awake by emergency briefings—what they hear defies belief.
• Hospitals activate mass casualty protocols, clearing emergency rooms for an influx of injured evacuees.

As the first reports filter in—Canyon Ferry is gone, Hauser is failing, Holter is next—one thing becomes clear: this is no localized disaster. This is a national catastrophe in motion.

The First Domino: Hauser and Holter Collapse

By 12:30 a.m., emergency responders in Townsend, East Helena, and Helena are already in the streets, pounding on doors, screaming at people to evacuate. But the flood moves faster than they can warn.

• The Hauser Dam, just 14 miles downstream, is overwhelmed within 45 minutes. The 5 billion cubic feet of water behind it surges free, adding fuel to the already unstoppable wave.
• By 2:00 a.m., Holter Dam (holding 12 billion cubic feet) collapses, its concrete walls buckling under the relentless force.

The Missouri River has now doubled in volume, multiplying its destructive power with each collapse.

A Night of Chaos: Emergency Crews Race Against Time

With every hour that passes, the flood picks up speed, debris, and lives.

• State troopers in helicopters broadcast evacuation orders over loudspeakers, their voices barely audible over the roaring flood.
• Firefighters and medics stage along higher ground, awaiting the injured—but knowing their numbers will quickly overwhelm resources.
• National Guard engineers race to reinforce bridges and levees, but it’s already too late for many.

The entire state of Montana is now in a state of emergency.

Great Falls: The Next City in Line

Located 75 miles downstream, Great Falls (population 58,000) braces for the inevitable. The Missouri River is now a runaway force of destruction, fed by three dam failures.

• At 4:30 a.m., city sirens wail, warning of the incoming wall of water.
• Military helicopters circle above, lighting up the darkness with searchlights as they pull stranded residents from rooftops.
• Highway patrol officers form human chains, dragging people from stalled vehicles on submerged highways.

The Missouri River is no longer a river—it is a weapon, carrying the flood toward even more densely populated regions.

Dawn Brings a Grim Reality

By 6:00 a.m., the rising sun reveals a transformed landscape. The waters now stretch for miles beyond the riverbanks, swallowing entire towns like an advancing ocean.

• Over 500,000 residents across the Missouri River Basin are without power, clean water, or escape routes.
• Railroads, highways, and supply chains are severed, cutting off vital aid to affected areas.
• Rescue crews, exhausted and overwhelmed, begin marking buildings with spray paint, signaling where survivors have been found—and where bodies remain.

The nation wakes up to the biggest disaster in modern American history—and it is only just beginning.

Over the coming days, over 300 bridges will be destroyed!.

4. The Domino Effect: From Montana to the Midwest

The Cascading Failure of Missouri River Dams

As the breach at Canyon Ferry Dam unleashes 134 billion cubic feet of water, a deadly chain reaction begins, overwhelming the Missouri River’s system of dams and reservoirs. The surging flood quickly overcomes the Hauser Dam (14 miles downstream, holding 5 billion cubic feet) and then slams into the Holter Dam (another 15 miles downstream, containing 12 billion cubic feet). Each failure amplifies the flood’s destructive force, accelerating its deadly march across Montana.

Yet, this is just the beginning. The water, now a roaring deluge of over 150 billion cubic feet, is propelled downstream by the Missouri River’s rapid elevation drop—a geographical feature that turns a disaster into a catastrophe.

From Canyon Ferry to Fort Peck Dam, the Missouri River plunges more than 1,000 feet in elevation over a 300-mile stretch. This steep decline transforms the flood into a fast-moving torrent, exponentially increasing its power. The river, normally controlled by a series of hydroelectric projects, is now an unchecked, relentless force.

The Final Stand: Fort Peck Dam

Located nearly 300 miles northeast of Canyon Ferry, Fort Peck Dam is the largest dam on the Missouri River and one of the most massive earthen dams in the world. Completed in 1940, it stands 250 feet high and 21,026 feet long, forming the Fort Peck Reservoir, which stretches 134 miles and holds an astonishing 19 million acre-feet (825 billion cubic feet) of water. This dam plays a critical role in regulating the Missouri River’s flow and preventing catastrophic floods.

But as the floodstorm barrels toward Fort Peck, engineers at the dam realize the terrifying reality: the dam’s current outflow system cannot release water fast enough to compensate for the incoming surge. Fort Peck is already at near-capacity from spring runoff, and with the combined floodwaters from Canyon Ferry, Hauser, and Holter, the reservoir’s levels begin to rise at a staggering rate.

At 10:45 a.m., the reservoir has exceeded emergency spillway levels. The earthen dam, never designed to withstand such an overwhelming surge, starts showing signs of structural failure. Engineers scramble to increase controlled releases, but it’s futile.

By 11:12 a.m., a massive section of Fort Peck’s earthen embankment gives way. Within minutes, the entire eastern section collapses, sending a 150-foot-high wall of water racing downstream at over 30 mph.

The Cataclysm Unleashed

With Fort Peck’s 825 billion cubic feet of water now joining the flood, the torrent has become an unstoppable inland tsunami, moving relentlessly toward Garrison Dam in North Dakota. The elevation drop between Fort Peck and Garrison spans over 300 feet, adding even more momentum to the water’s deadly charge.

By 3:30 p.m., the Garrison Dam, one of the largest hydroelectric facilities in the U.S., collapses under the onslaught. This final breach sends a surge of over 2.5 trillion cubic feet of water cascading down the Missouri River, obliterating towns, cities, and infrastructure across Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and the Midwest.

While most people have been warned to evacuate, the destruction of property is unfathomable.

5.) The Slow March of Disaster: A Nation Watches in Horror

By daylight, the unstoppable wall of water has already consumed much of Montana and North Dakota, and now it creeps—agonizingly slow yet inescapable—toward the heart of the Midwest. The disaster does not strike all at once. Instead, it unfolds in slow motion, a grinding inevitability that emergency crews and news helicopters track in real time, broadcasting the destruction hour by hour to a stunned nation.

Bismarck Overwhelmed: The Water Rises, and Hope Fades

From the air, Bismarck looks like a city under siege by nature itself. The once-mighty Missouri River has swollen to five times its normal width, and levees that held through the night are now visibly bulging, crumbling, then failing altogether.

Helicopters hover over the stranded residents, capturing footage of entire neighborhoods gradually vanishing beneath the encroaching flood. The footage is surreal—people wading through waist-deep water, clutching their children and whatever belongings they can carry.

On the ground, emergency responders battle exhaustion as they ferry stranded families to safety in boats. Some neighborhoods are completely cut off, leaving rescue crews to make impossible choices about who to evacuate first.

• Bismarck’s flood stage is typically 16 feet, but by noon, the water has risen past 35 feet—and it keeps climbing.
• Highway 83, the last major evacuation route, is swallowed in slow motion.
• National Guard troops coordinate rooftop rescues while power stations spark and fail.

The collapse of Garrison Dam upstream means that Bismarck’s fate is sealed—the city will not be spared. Residents flee to higher ground, watching their homes become part of the ever-widening floodplain.

Oahe Dam Teeters on the Brink: The Clock Runs Out

Further downstream, Pierre, South Dakota, waits in agonizing silence. Residents have been watching the rising water for days, knowing the Oahe Dam stands between them and annihilation.

Live news feeds capture the moment the colossal structure gives way. At 9:40 a.m., an earthen section of the dam cracks, buckles, then collapses. The dam’s 102 billion cubic feet of water explode outward, sending a new tidal wave racing toward South Dakota’s capital.

From above, helicopters capture the moment the surge hits downtown Pierre. Streets become rivers, cars float like toys, and entire buildings dislodge and drift away. The bridge spanning the Missouri River collapses, cutting off all hope of escape for those still trapped on the wrong side.

• Pierre’s population of 14,000 has less than 30 minutes before the entire city is underwater.
• The flood, now carrying the force of three dam failures, picks up even more speed as it descends into South Dakota.
• Livestock in nearby fields struggle in the churning water, helpless as their pastures become part of the widening disaster.

Sioux City: The Evacuation Race Against Time

As the water thunders southward, Sioux City, Iowa, watches and waits, its people glued to live updates of Pierre’s destruction. They know they are next.

The city’s levees, reinforced only hours earlier, are now visibly weakening. Military convoys rush thousands toward higher ground, but the roads are choked with traffic, a slow-moving panic.

By mid-afternoon, the inevitable happens—the Missouri River breaks through. The flood arrives not as a single towering wave, but as a relentless surge, rising inch by inch until the entire city is drowning.

• Families abandon vehicles on flooded highways, scrambling for higher overpasses.
• Shelters overflow as tens of thousands are displaced.
• A power station explodes in a shower of sparks, plunging half the city into darkness.

Omaha’s Nightmare: The Flood Becomes a Monster

By midday, news helicopters focus on Omaha, where 800,000 residents brace for catastrophe. The Missouri River, swollen with the combined forces of multiple dam collapses, now carries nearly 1.5 trillion cubic feet of water—a surge that no levee, no floodplain, no emergency response can withstand.

The flood’s arrival is agonizingly slow, creeping into the city’s outskirts first, submerging suburbs before engulfing downtown. The city watches in horrified silence as the skyline disappears behind an advancing wall of water.

• Interstate 80 vanishes beneath the flood, severing the Midwest’s supply chains.
• The airport shuts down as runways disappear, grounding the last evacuation flights.
• Helicopters circle above as families wave for rescue from rooftops.

As the afternoon drags into night, the floodwaters continue their unrelenting advance—and the worst is still to come.

The Midwest Crumbles as the Nation Watches in Horror

Further south, Kansas City and St. Louis brace for impact. Residents watch in real-time as cities upstream are swallowed whole. Evacuation orders extend into Missouri and Illinois, but for many, it’s already too late to flee.

The Missouri River, now completely unrecognizable, converges with the Mississippi in St. Louis, triggering a national-scale catastrophe. The flood is no longer just a Midwestern disaster—it is an American disaster, one that will ripple through the economy, food supply, and energy infrastructure for years to come.

In newsrooms across the country, broadcasters struggle to put words to what they are witnessing. The flood, broadcast live in real-time, has become the most documented catastrophe in history. A nation watches, helpless, as its heartland disappears underwater.

As the disaster unfolds, the nation is literally cut in half.

6.) A Nation Divided

In just 12 days, the Missouri River Valley is wiped from the map, replaced by an unstoppable inland sea. The floodwaters—swollen with the combined force of 2.5 trillion cubic feet of unleashed destruction from the Canyon Ferry, Hauser, Holter, Fort Peck, Garrison, and Oahe Dams—have consumed entire cities, erased farmlands, and redefined the geography of the American heartland. What was once a network of dams, towns, and industries is now a churning expanse of devastation, stretching from Montana to the Gulf of Mexico, swallowing everything in its path.

Entire cities are drowned, farmlands turned into unbroken lakes, and the infrastructure that once connected east and west has been obliterated.

The Collapse of Transportation and Supply Chains

• Bridges, highways, and railroads are washed away across multiple states. The Union Pacific and BNSF rail networks, which move billions of dollars in goods across the Midwest, are completely shut down.
• Major crossings in Kansas City and St. Louis are impassable, severing supply chains and isolating entire regions from relief efforts.
• Interstate 70, a critical artery from Denver to St. Louis, is swallowed by the flood, cutting off transport of goods and people.
• Airports in Omaha, Kansas City, and St. Louis are submerged, halting evacuations and emergency flights.

With the nation’s transportation backbone in ruins, emergency response teams cannot reach the hardest-hit areas, leaving millions stranded without aid.

Millions Displaced, Entire Cities Lost

The flood has now displaced over 5 million people.

• Sioux City, Omaha, and Kansas City are reduced to wastelands of submerged homes, collapsed infrastructure, and stranded survivors.
• St. Louis braces for the worst, as the flood meets the Mississippi River, triggering an uncontrollable deluge that will sweep southward toward Memphis, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans.

In St. Louis alone, over 300,000 people are left without power, while more than 2 million across the Midwest lose access to clean drinking water as treatment facilities are submerged.

Economic and Global Fallout

The agricultural and industrial heartland of the United States is in ruins.

• Millions of acres of farmland—the source of 40% of America’s corn and soybean supply—are under water.
• Meat and dairy farms across Nebraska and Iowa are wiped out, triggering nationwide food shortages.
• The floodwaters obliterate manufacturing hubs, crippling industries in cities like Kansas City, St. Louis, and Des Moines.
• The global economy trembles, as the collapse of U.S. supply chains sends shockwaves through energy and food markets worldwide.

The Heartland is Gone—And America is Divided

By the time the waters reach Memphis and beyond, America is no longer whole—not just geographically, but socially and economically.

• Insurance companies collapse under the sheer volume of claims, leaving millions without financial recourse.
• Power grids fail across multiple states, sending entire regions into permanent blackout.
• Federal relief efforts buckle, unable to keep pace with the unprecedented scale of destruction.

The once-thriving Missouri River Valley—the backbone of the American heartland—has ceased to exist.

The challenge ahead is unlike anything in history. Rebuilding will take decades. But for now, America is crippled, left to grapple with the enormity of a disaster that has forever changed its landscape, its economy, and its future.

The disaster unfolds at an agonizing slow pace over 8-10 days, but there is nothing humanly possible to stop it.

7.) Lessons in Fragility

The Canyon Ferry Disaster exposes the perilous balance of modern civilization—a system built on interwoven infrastructure, where a single failure can ignite a cascade of destruction. What began with the breach of one dam, releasing 134 billion cubic feet of water, escalated into the collapse of six, culminating in a flood of over 2.5 trillion cubic feet. Entire cities were erased, farmland drowned, and the backbone of the American heartland shattered.

The Chain Reaction That Changed Everything

The disaster unfolds at an agonizing slow pace over 8-10 days, but there is nothing humanly possible to stop it. From Canyon Ferry to Oahe, the distances between dams—some as short as 14 miles, others over 100 miles apart—offered little defense against the relentless surge. Cities like Helena (30,000), Great Falls (58,000), and Bismarck (73,000) were swallowed in the horrors of time. Further downstream, the flood reached Kansas City (2 million residents) and St. Louis (2.8 million residents), where its effects will linger for months, reshaping both landscapes and lives.

Beyond the immediate flood zone, the indirect consequences spiraled outward:

• Power grids collapsed, leaving 3 million people in darkness as hydroelectric plants at Canyon Ferry, Garrison, and Oahe failed.
• Highways and railways vanished beneath the flood, severing supply chains and leaving entire regions cut off from aid.
• Millions of acres of farmland were destroyed, wiping out crops and livestock, triggering food shortages across the U.S. and beyond.
• Railroads Severed: Major freight lines including Union Pacific, BNSF, and Norfolk Southern would suffer massive disruptions, halting goods movement across the country.
• Interstates & Highways Cut Off: I-90, I-80, I-70, and I-55, all major east-west routes, would be washed out for months.
• Supply Chain Failure: With bridges out, detours impossible, and rail corridors severed, food, fuel, and emergency supplies would take weeks to reroute—if alternate routes even exist.

The Long Road to Recovery

For survivors, the receding waters did not bring relief, only the beginning of an impossible task—not just rebuilding homes and cities, but restoring faith in the institutions that failed them.

• Insurance companies crumbled, overwhelmed by a tsunami of claims, leaving thousands with no financial safety net.
• Government disaster relief faltered, its response dwarfed by the sheer scale of need.
• Entire industries collapsed, as agriculture, manufacturing, and energy sectors struggled to recover from historic losses.

A Warning for the Future

The Canyon Ferry Disaster laid bare the vulnerability of interconnected systems—power, water, transportation, communication—designed for resilience, yet prone to catastrophic failure when one weak link snaps.

In the aftermath, urgent questions loom:

• How can we fortify critical infrastructure against cascading failures?
• What safeguards can prevent a single breach from triggering a national catastrophe?
• How do we better prepare for and respond to disasters on this scale?

Are we staring at the future of our own destruction?

Final Thoughts 

The Canyon Ferry Disaster is more than a tragedy—it is a warning. A single point of failure unraveled the entire Missouri River Basin, leaving millions displaced and the heartland in ruins. The disaster underscores the fragility of our systems and the urgent need for innovation, resilience, and vigilance.

As communities embark on the long road to recovery, one truth is clear: we must redesign our world to prevent such catastrophic chain reactions from ever happening again. The lessons of this tragedy must shape the future, ensuring that our civilization does not crumble under the weight of its own complexity.

Fifty years ago, very few people talked about globalization. Cross-border travel was both difficult and expensive. Communication requires human translators. Transporting goods and services across borders and oceans was complex and uncertain.

The Internet helped change our feelings about globalization because it put diverse cultures and customs in front of our eyes and vast amounts of international commercial information at our fingertips.

Businesses and individuals responded accordingly, forging relationships and genuine interest with institutions and people outside our borders. Thanks to information and transportation technology, companies could outsource jobs and develop new sources of supply that helped their bottom lines.

We seemed willing to accept the tradeoffs that came with commercial globalization. For every job that went overseas, a local person lost their livelihood. When a manufacturer taps an overseas supplier for raw materials, components, or services, a local company loses an opportunity.

Additionally, commercial globalization required relatively open borders and seamless movements of capital goods and human resources – an ideal state that we have taken for granted in recent decades.

Globalization Comes Tumbling Down

In reality, commercial globalization is a high-stakes, tenuous balancing act at the micro (company) level and the macro (nation-state) level. Disruptions can topple things in either case. And macro/global disruptions hit with a vengeance in the last three years with the conflict in Ukraine, concern about China’s global intentions, and, of course, COVID-19.

Suddenly globalization was a liability. Global supply chains snapped due to shipping snafus and overseas company closures. Collaboration and commerce with Chinese companies raised concerns about trade secrets and national security.

The New Trend Toward Localization

At this time, companies are trying to develop and maintain shorter domestic supply lines. Governments are incentivizing companies to source domestically rather than rely on high-tech components suppliers in a country that may be a potential adversary and could turn the spigot off.

Are we merely seeing a short-term pendulum swing toward localization? That would mean we either expect the current global situations to disappear or that we’ve chosen to live with them. And even if we magically were to go back to something that resembled the days of wine and roses (i.e., circa 2018), would governments and business leaders put their blinders back on, revert to their generous risk tolerances, and ignore the possibility of future disruptions?

I hope not, and I don’t think we’ll need to worry about that. Disruption will be a way of life in the future, and with it, we’ll all maintain our current tendency to protect and isolate national and local economies.

Future Disruptors

These disruptions will come in all varieties, some in the form of increasingly ominous trends and others arriving overnight. Here are four future disruptions I see that will keep globalization at arm’s length:

1. Militarist regimes are in ascendancy, and the resultant conflicts in important regions of the world will cut off commerce and markets.
2. Worker shortages and political alliances will enhance labor’s clout. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but labor actions are designed to cause pain and disruption, and this will be the case in essential industries ranging from agriculture to transportation.
3. We’ll likely (over)react to the next perceived pandemic, erring on the side of safety, isolation … and disruption.
4. Climate change activism will give companies another reason to source locally and reduce their reported carbon footprint related to shipping.

The Inevitable Conclusion – Less Globalization

Commerce’s natural tendency is toward economic globalization, thanks to the cost reductions and efficiencies it offers. Humankind’s recent natural tendency is toward mistrust and pessimism because human beings tend to be crisis-oriented – cognizant of calamity but less aware of positive trends and events. That tendency will be reflected in our policymakers, who will adopt “hunker down” policies to keep globalization at bay. dddd

This tug of war will continue to play out. To the extent they can, companies will look for globalization opportunities, but a disruption or policy action will pull the rug out from under them. Over time, disruptions, perceived or real, will come with increasing frequency until business leaders resign themselves to localization for the long term.

What Will Localization Look Like?

How will that shift play out in certain aspects of our lives and the world?

1. The U.S. will be constrained from serving as the global police force and the on-the-ground deterrent of bad national actors. Other countries will continue to ramp up their own security capabilities. This doesn’t preclude collective action through NATO or other alliances, but each country will be sufficiently armed and empowered, and they’ll be more circumspect regarding the extent of their engagement.
2. We’ll have tighter labor markets and better job opportunities at home. The primary benefit of sourcing functions to workers in other countries has been to take advantage of lower labor costs. Those differentials have been diminishing and will even more so as labor’s clout ascends worldwide. That clout will be employed to encourage policymakers to incentivize companies to bring/keep those jobs at home.
3. With less international collaboration of the best minds, technology breakthroughs will slow. The future we’ve been exploring for many years in this space will slip a bit further into the future.
4. Inflationary pressure will increase. The watchword for business owners will be “redundancy” for every one of their key inputs, from raw materials and components to labor and service providers. Redundancy increases costs, and those higher costs will be passed on to customers.

Cultural Globalization

While we tend to think about globalization mainly in a commercial sense, on another level, the concept is also about personal and cultural interconnectedness. Here, too, I see us becoming more localized, but this time just for the short term.

Yes, thanks to technology and transportation, “it’s a small, small world,” but the phrase presently lacks the warm and fuzzy feelings the Richard Sherman song elicited when it was introduced at the New York World’s Fair in 1964. Terrorism. Tribalism. Takeovers. It’s a little scary out/over there, and we have enough of that to deal with at home, it seems.

I also sense that citizens of most countries currently feel on the spot to have to defend, explain, or bemoan their national identities to people in foreign countries who only have a caricatured view of their country and its citizens.

I believe this personal localization is short-term, a reflection of the most significant current disruptions and historical events in our nations and our world. We’re amid a unique but short era. European wars and pandemics don’t last forever, and we’ll soon be back to our global ways personally, if not commercially.

If you ask ten different people what were the most important inventions in all history, you’ll likely get ten different answers.

Here’s one pretty good list from National Geographic that would be hard to argue with:

1. Printing press
2. Light bulb
3. Airplane
4. Personal computer
5. Vaccines
6. Automobile
7. Clock
8. Telephone
9. Refrigeration
10. Camera

Here’s another that includes several of the same items plus the nail and the compass, and it even goes a bit further back in time to give credit to the inventor of the wheel – a very good addition. And here’s one more, this one remembering to include the gas-powered tractor and anesthesia. Good catch.

Now, I’m not saying it’s easier to be a historian than a futurist, but it’s probably less complicated to look backward at one’s leisure to acknowledge breakthrough technologies than it is to predict new ones at a time when so many technologies are on the cusp.

Debates about the significance of historical breakthroughs are academic exercises or something one does with friends over a glass of wine.

But consideration of the merits and ultimate utility of pending and future breakthroughs takes place in boardrooms with billions of dollars on the line. After all, things that seem destined to be extraordinary and ultimately commonplace may prove to be a bust. Supersonic transport comes to mind, even though it’s probably too early to give up on that.

But I don’t mind going out on a limb in predicting what the most significant emerging technologies will be over the next ten years. These are the twelve I’m watching, and I think you should be as well:

1. Autonomous Transportation

I’ve become convinced that autonomous transportation will be the most disruptive technology in all of history. On this topic, most people right away think of cars and trucks as a first step. In fact, those may be the last autonomous vehicles to be fully developed and embraced due to the relatively complex and unpredictable environment they’ll be operating in.

But we’ve already come a long way in other modes of transportation. Unmanned rockets are delivering satellites to space orbit and supplies to the international space station. Soon we’ll see unmanned cargo ships plying the oceans. Submarines will follow shortly. Commercial jets are nearly autonomous now and under computerized control for much of each journey.

And, yes, eventually we’ll see wide-spread autonomous, dry land transportation – especially once we get past the mindset that perfect safety is the only acceptable option.

Add all of this together and not only will transportation be turned on its head, but we’ll also have massive redesign of our buildings, airports, seaports, highways, and cities themselves to accommodate it.

2. Artificial Intelligence

AI certainly isn’t an emerging technology, but what will be new is the extent it will be a part of nearly every other emerging technology. AI is the basis of computer learning. Faster computers with access to more data will enhance nearly every aspect of our lives: transportation, healthcare, business, national security, entertainment, and more.

We’ll begin to view AI as a commodity – almost like a utility – that’s delivered into every home, office, device, car, and highway in our world.

I’ve done multiple interviews on the Futurati Podcast with AI experts like David Jilk, Kristinn Thórisson, and Roman Yampolskiy which have greatly informed my thinking on the transformative potential of this technology.

3. Blockchain

Blockchain technology will soon become an element of our behind-the-scenes infrastructure for nearly every kind of transaction (defined in the broadest sense) that requires the secure transfer and maintenance of assets or information. It’s hard to imagine any industry that won’t be impacted as they strive to becoming more secure and efficient. If an industry relies on contracts, financial transactions, personal identification information, or asset management, for example, blockchain technology will be working in the background.

Is blockchain the final word in IT security? Unfortunately no. Blockchain can be hacked, but it’s not worth losing sleep over. As long as we rely on technology, i.e., computers and the internet, we’ll have cyber thieves. We need to accept that we’ll always be in a cycle of smart people developing secure systems that other smart people quickly learn to exploit. But, we’re continually raising the bar in the process.

4. Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency is one of the primary applications and earliest adopters of blockchain technology. Soon, you won’t need to understand blockchain to use cryptocurrency; it will be as easy and natural and using a credit card. The currency behind it, though, will be blockchain-based. Bitcoin was the first, but the emerging crypto economy is now valued at over $2 trillion. This means over $2T in economic expansion, with no governmental strings attached, and we’re just getting started.

Regulators will eventually accede to this inevitability and implement buffers and guideposts to prevent the kind of valuation volatility and scams that have caused most people to stay away from engaging in cryptocurrency. Increasingly, nations will transform their currencies to digital, doing away with pesky paper and even peskier coinage. Our personal cryptocurrency wallets will typically have a variety of currencies at our disposal.

5. CRISPR

That’s “clustered regularly interspersed short palindromic repeats,” by the way, the emerging science of genetic manipulation using DNA splicing. We looked at this several weeks ago in the context of de-extincting a version of a Woolly Mammoth by splicing its preserved DNA into an Asian elephant.

That’s just the tip of the CRISPR iceberg, though. The emerging CRISPR toolset will expand our capabilities to customize embryos to optimize human beings in many ways. In just a few years, a pregnant woman will have the option of going to a geneticist to discuss certain “enhancement options” for her unborn child. They’ll also be able to remove problematic genes in order to reduce the likelihood of certain diseases and physical conditions.

6. Metaverse

This is one of the most fascinating advances I’ve had the opportunity to explore in a long time. The metaverse is essentially Internet 3.0, maybe even 10.0, based on an increasingly robust infrastructure that can support the presence of an alternate reality we can experience for ourselves. We see bits and pieces of it now, with concerts, online gaming, and virtual offices.

But ultimately, we’ll have metaverses that are as real and expansive as any Matrix or Ready Player One scenario. It’s not a stretch to say that in the future, we’ll be taking virtual vacations in the metaverse – spending a week’s salary with a metaverse agency to experience an African safari or an Alaskan cruise, enjoying the sights and sounds and the company of our fellow travelers.

7. Touchable Mixed Reality

This is an evolutionary development with metaverse implications. First, there was virtual reality (VR) – a virtual world, complete with sights and sounds (and only sights and sounds) experienced with the specialized headset. Next was augmented reality (AR) – in which we experienced the real world with virtual objects overlaying them (e.g., Pokémon Go). The next step is mixed reality (MR) – in which real and virtual worlds are combined. MR allows us to overlay physical items into the virtual environment.

MR will be a gamechanger in … well, games of course, and also in numerous entertainment and learning environments from engineering to medicine.

8. Living Robots

Despite the name, this innovation isn’t as creepy or eyebrow-raising as it sounds. While this phrase may conjure up the image of human clones, remember that a “robot” is simply a controlled, programmable machine that can carry out a complex task.

But instead of metal casings and hard-wired circuitry, they’re made with biological tissue. The earliest versions of living robots can best be characterized as “programmable organisms,” blobs of tissue made from biological stem cells that are manipulated and shaped to be living organisms that perform tasks. Initially, we’ll program them, for example, to deliver medicine within a human body or clean up radioactive waste in hazardous sites. Beyond that, though, who knows!

9. Hyper-individualized Education

Education is a $2 trillion annual business that operates in much the same way it did 200 years ago with large classrooms filled with students who are all taught the same way and, for the most part, the same thing. But classroom technology has been advancing rapidly, especially during the pandemic.

Ultimately, we’ll have massive databases of teachable material from which students and their advisers can craft a unique curriculum and even a unique degree. The material will be delivered in a way that the student can best relate to. Lectures. Virtual field trips. Group discussions (see metaverse discussion above). One-on-one tutorials with an AI teacher bot.

Degrees will be obtained more quickly, and graduates will have a much better-defined specialty that will minimize the time spent by their first employer in on-the-job training.

10. Hyper-individualized Medicine

This is also known as personalized medicine. Doctors in the near future will collaborate with us on prevention, diagnosis, and treatment options based on our own unique genomic profile. With the benefit of this information, they’ll know what conditions we’re susceptible to and that must be monitored closely. And when a condition presents itself, they’ll know which drugs or other treatments will be effective, ineffective, or even harmful.

We’ve seen some early successes with personalized medicine with oncology therapies, and it will ultimately extend significantly beyond that.

11. Internet for Everyone

With communication satellites filling our low-Earth orbit, people in more and more of the far corners of the Earth will have access to information through the internet. As long as local regimes don’t try to limit citizen access, information will be more widespread and transferrable – for better or worse, but hopefully more for the better.

Who knows how many 21st century potential Einsteins and Mozarts will emerge when there is greater exposure to information and ideas? With a truly World Wide Web, we’ll see tremendous growth in global GDP, and maybe as I call it, in GNK – global net knowledge that will drive mankind’s progress forward, bringing light and enlightenment where it’s needed most.

12. Lab Grown Everything

While lab-grown meats have gotten all the attention, we’ll soon have similar processes for lab-growing construction material, fabrication materials, and much more. Our labs will make tremendous progress in speed-growing natural materials that have the same cellular structure as the “real” items that have previously only been grown at the rate of nature.

This will be a huge ecological and social win as we no longer will need to mine diamonds, clear cut forests, or maintain massive cattle feedlots, for example. We’ll also have new sources for medical and health products like breast milk, nutraceuticals, ointments, and more. This will cause short-term employment issues for sure, but once the science is worked out, the labs will essentially become factories and the workers there won’t need PhDs.

100 Years from Now

I can’t imagine a more fantastic future than if these technologies come to fruition and play out fully! And if this blog is somehow discoverable in 100 years, I hope another futurist will see it and chuckle about our simplicity or, even better, note how we identified 2021 trends that did indeed shape the world they’re living in.