When we stop owning our own vehicles, we’ll be forced to adopt whole new mindset!

Over the coming years the conversations about privacy in driverless vehicles will become a delicate balancing act between privacy, security, and convenience.

Let’s consider a typical morning commute in 2030.

After summoning a car, it arrives quickly, recognizes you, and opens the door. “Good morning Mr. Johnson, where are we heading off to today?”

With facial recognition it already knows your most common destinations, and the stops you like to make along the way. But today is different.

“I’d like to pick up Mr. Norbert from Doggy Daycare and take him to my sister’s house in North Willows.” (Mr. Norbert is the cocker spaniel that he hates leaving at home while he’s gone. The sister’s house is already a known destination.)

“Would you like to stop for your regular cup of coffee before going to Doggy Daycare? I see a Tim Hortons along the way, would you like to stop there?”

“Yes, that would be nice.” (In this situation, Tim Hortons was suggested because the company paid extra to get premium placement on the car’s recommendation engine.)

“Would you also like to purchase a doggie mat for the backseat as well?”

“No he’ll be fine sitting on my lap.” (Since the car is already aware of Mr. Norbert’s bladder problems, sensors under the floor mats and seats are given a “monitor closely” alert.)

“Very well, will you be planning any trips this weekend?”

“Perhaps, I was thinking about taking Sally to the Fire House Bistro on Saturday evening.”

“Would you like me to make reservations for you at the Fire House Bistro on Saturday?”

“Yes, that’ll work. Let’s set the arrival time at 6:30 pm.”

“Very well, I’ll contact them now.” Two minutes go by. “The only times available for the Fire House Bistro on Saturday are earlier than 5:30 pm or after 8:00 pm. Would you like me to reserve one of those time-slots?”

“No, see if you can get a 6:30 pm reservation at the Capitol Club? And also, make it a reservation for four because we’d like to take our grandkids Jonathan and Beverly along.”

“Very well, I’ll contact them now.” Two minutes go by. “Good news, I was able to make a 6:30 pm reservation at the Capitol Club on Saturday for a party of four. Will you be needing car seats for your grandchildren?”

“Yes, I’ll need one carseat for Beverly.” (Once again, this request triggers a sensor alert for possible spillage and other messes.)

After stopping to grab a cup of coffee at Tim Hortons, we drive by a grocery store and a list of sale items appear on my screen. With a few taps, he adds them to his grocery list and a delivery service will drop them off this evening.

Just like every morning, my regularly scheduled conference call comes up and he finds himself part of discussion about next generation security systems for the office.

In this age of self-driving cars, an era when much of the minutiae of daily life is relegated to a machine, we can be as busy or as relaxed as we want to be. But overall, they’ll free up people’s time and attention to focus on other matters while they’re moving from one place to the next.

But there can also be a darker side to all this if you’re concerned about privacy. So let’s take a closer look at the privacy side of the equation.

In a driverless vehicle, privacy becomes a delicate balancing act with security and convenience!

Competing Interests

Every trip we make in the future will have multiple parties interested in tracking our activities inside an autonomous vehicle.

Vehicle Owners – The company that owns the cars will want to know about any situation that could possibly compromise the ongoing operation of the vehicle. The list of possible “cleanup & repair” triggers will get more complicated over time:

• Spillage and trash
• Contagious diseases
• Known criminals
• Handicap people
• Illegal activities
• Terrorist activities

Governments – Since autonomous vehicles will be classified as “public transportation,” governments have an obligation to provide safe and efficient transportation while mitigating danger, and stopping harmful activities before they happen:

• Known criminals
• Handicap people
• Illegal activities
• Hackers
• Hijackers
• Terrorist activities

Passengers – Anyone riding in an autonomous car will want a safe and inexpensive form of transportation:

• Convenient
• Safe and secure
• Reliable
• Comfortable
• Easy to enter & exit

Advertisers – Having access to a captive audience is worth its weight in gold, however, it’s a delicate balance between being too intrusive and not enough. Contrary to what most people think, advertisers are not interested in spamming the world with ads. Rather, most are interested in specifically targeting only those people who will be interested in their products or services.

Loyalty Programs – Passenger rewards for being a frequent traveler will become a hot topic in the future. For this reason, having an automated system for logging trips and calculating mileage will become a critical feature.

AI Operating System Companies – The heart and soul of every autonomous vehicle operation will be an AI operating system that becomes increasingly anticipatory over time. Having the right cars in the right parts of the city at the right time will prove to be the first benchmark for performance. Beyond that, every AI operating system will get to know their passengers quite intimately, offering movies, games, music, recommending products, goods, and services, making accommodations for changes in jobs, lifestyles, and even working with quirky new passenger demands.

With driverless technology, our expectations will dramatically change!

Eight Scenarios

Surveillance inside a vehicle will take many forms – visual surveillance with cameras, audio surveillance through microphones, GPS, sensors, air quality monitors, and much more.

As fleet owners offer customers a smooth, clean, comfortable ride from point A to point B, there are a staggering number of things that can go wrong along the way.

Whenever serious problems are detected, vehicles will be taken out of service until the problem has been resolved. However, any time a vehicle is removed from operation – either for cleanup, repair, spills, contagions, police activity, or any number of situations – expenses start mounting.

At the same time companies want to monitor what’s happening inside their cars, customers have many reasons why they don’t want anyone watching them.

Here are a few quick scenarios to highlight the size and scope of issues these companies will be dealing with.

1. Terrorist Scenarios

Autonomous vehicle companies will quickly become targets for hackers, hijackers, and any number of devious minded schemers. All parties involved – governments, passengers, and vehicle owners – will want to minimize these kinds of problems. When it comes to terrorist scenarios, problems will range from bombs, to poison, toxic cars, infectious diseases, spying on conversations, and more.

2. Divorce Scenarios

Many of those going through a divorce tend to have heightened levels of paranoia. With many worried that their qualifications and worthiness of being a parent will be called into question, many recently divorced people will want to travel incognito with their messy, unruly kids, dogs, and toys.

3. Celebrity Scenarios

At a certain point, fame becomes the arch enemy of being seen in public, and many will worry about word getting out at the driverless command center about their whereabouts. Paparazzi, stalkers, and even autograph junkies become a problem for those who just want a peaceful trip across town. These types of problems are quickly exacerbated when viral media stars and rapidly unfolding news stories focus a huge spotlight on anything they do.

4. Business Exec on Phone Scenarios

Many business executives routinely have phone conversations that, if overheard by those in competing businesses, could jeopardize the long-term competitiveness of their own company. Corporate espionage is alive and well, and operating at far more sophisticated levels than ever before.

5. Pets and Support Animal Scenarios

As the number of people living with pets continues to climb, pet owners increasingly expect their pets will be as welcome as they are wherever they go. With pets ranging from potbelly pigs, to chickens, dogs, cats, snakes, rats, miniature horses, parrots, and iguanas, the overall messiness of animals enclosed in tiny mobile spaces becomes a significant issue. Fleet operators will insist on specific “rider insurance policies” that will kick in whenever an animal is onboard.

6. Contagious Disease Scenarios

No one wants to contract a virus, infections, lice, allergens, or any other kind of transmittable illness inside a driverless vehicle. For this reason, fleet owners will have air quality monitors that continuously sniff and test air particles for anything remotely dangerous.

7. Messy Kid Scenarios

Even though you may love kids, few passengers want to climb into a car where an explosive diaper has been changed, a 32 ounce Big Gulp has been spilled, projectile vomiting is coating the seat-backs, or magic markers have turned the interior into a Picasso-wanna-be.

8. Wealthy People Scenarios

While rich people are willing to pay for absolute privacy, where all cameras, sensors, and recording devices are turned off, things will still go wrong, and fleet owners (and police) will want to know who is responsible. What if passengers get into a fight, blood everywhere, someone dies, or is thrown from the vehicle, how are these issues resolved?

The more personalized driverless vehicles get, the more conveniences they’ll offer!

Final Thoughts

When it comes to self-driving cars, the price of convenience is surveillance.

Massive amounts of data will be collected, as a natural extension of a driverless car’s functionality. These cars will rely on high-tech cameras, both internal and external, along with ultra-precise GPS data. This means cars will collect reams of information about the people they transport around, similar to the data Uber has amassed about its customers’ habits, but down to a level of detail that’s far more granular.

For self-driving cars to work, an enormous amount of data has to flow through their onboard sensor networks to be able to keep track of every car, person, or animal on the road.

The more personalized these vehicles get, and the more conveniences they offer, the more data they’ll have to incorporate into their operation. The future I described might be a few years away, but there’s no reason to believe it’s too far-fetched.

That said, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this topic.

The impact of driverless vehicles will be profound, touching almost every aspect of our lives, and the level of disruption will be staggering.

It will not only change the way we get from point A to point B, but also how we think about shopping, entertainment, dining out, as well as the design of our buildings, houses, hospitals, churches, and shopping centers.

It will shift how we manage our businesses, how we schedule our time, how we interact with our friends, and what we should invest in.

Virtually every facet of society, in every country around the world, will be touched by driverless technologies, and the vast majority of it is destined to improve our global standard of living.

Yes, there will be job losses, but they will be offset by job creation. Businesses that disappear will be replaced by innovative new businesses.

As transportation becomes faster, cheaper, and easier, we will simply do more of it. We will become a very fluid society, and all this movement will seem natural and effortless.

However, the path to progress is strewn with countless land mines and pitfalls. Many things will go wrong as every new tech journey is never smooth.

Vehicle design will rapidly iterate from one design to the next.

28 Reasons

Here are a few of my latest thoughts on the impact of driverless tech.

1. People will still own their own cars in the future, but it will be a rapidly declining number.

Transportation-as-a-service companies will first spring up in large metro areas and expand into small towns and rural communities. But few of the early fleet owners will be interested in small-town-small-profit communities, even though they might serve as a far more manageable proving ground. With both human drivers and autonomous vehicles sharing the same highways, a number of complications will crop up to impede progress.

2. Car manufacturers will most likely be the early fleet owners.

While software and tech companies are taking over many industries (i.e. some of the biggest banks in the future will be tech companies), car manufacturing still requires unique skills and companies such as Tesla, Toyota, and Ford will be in a deciding position as to how their cars will be used. They will also have the greatest potential for responding to rapidly shifting market demands. Self-driving cars will be heavily used, 24-7 if possible, and fleet owners will learn the nuances of customer preferences first hand, translating quickly evolving expectations into next generation design details in a matter of months. For this reason, it will be in the manufacturer’s best interest to eliminate every possible barrier between design teams and end users as they rapidly iterate from one design to the next, and grapple with emerging business models in the process.

3. One autonomous car will replace roughly 30 traditional cars.

There are roughly 273 million registered vehicles in the U.S. and replacing them all will be a long drawn out process. But here’s the math most people don’t understand. For a city of 2 million people, a fleet of 30,000 autonomous vehicles will displace 50% of peak commuter traffic. During off-peak times, 30,000 autonomous vehicles will handle virtually all other transportation needs. Peak traffic times will naturally be the hardest to manage.

4. Vehicle design will rapidly iterate from one design to the next.

Car companies have spent so much time in the race to get the technology safe and functional that they haven’t taken time to understand the evolving expectations of driverless customers. As an example, people will still pay more to ride in luxury vehicles, but our definition of luxury will change. Ease of entrance and exit will become important issues. So will lighting, visibility, noise levels, entertainment option, seating arrangements, and cleanliness. The operating systems for driverless tech will also evolve quickly as use cases grow and adaptive self-learning AI-based neural networks respond to every new situation. Eventually all technology to support human drivers will disappear, including steering wheels, dashboards, gas pedals, and brake pedals. Instead, vehicles will be designed around comfort, conversations, entertainment, project spaces, desktops, power outlets, and snacking/eating.

5. Child seats will be the most challenging feature to design in self-driving cars.

For parents, the safety of their children takes priority over virtually every aspect of their life. The elaborate process of strapping kids into their seat and buckling each of them into a five-point harness has become a routine way of life for moms and dads everywhere. Let’s face it. Kids are messy, dirty, get sick, throw up, toss things, and find ways to turn a perfectly clean vehicle into a waste management problem in a matter of seconds. At the same time, fleet owners will not want to ignore kids because they represent a significant percentage of the marketplace.

6. Other major design issues will include dealing with pets, service animals, handicap people, elderly, and politicians.

What if a daycare center needs a vehicle with six car seats? What if a dog trainer has to pick up four dogs? What if an assisted care center has three people in wheelchairs that want to travel together? What if politicians pass a law requiring fleet owners to accommodate all of these situations?

7. Next generation storage cells will mean that batteries will never have to be changed on autonomous vehicles.

If Tesla’s latest claims holds true, they will soon have a battery that lasts a million miles. This means the rest of the car will wear out before the batteries.

8. Car death and accident rates will plummet.

In 2018, roughly 40,000 people lost their lives in car crashes, and about 4.5 million people were seriously injured in crashes. Over the next three decades we will see a constantly shifting ratio of human drivers vs. autonomous vehicles. As human drivers decline, death and injury rates will fall. Our safest form of transportation is the airline industry. If we can get car safety even close to that of airlines, we will save tons of lives and lifelong injuries in the process.

9. We currently spend over $500 billion per year repairing people after car accidents.

This amounts to one out of every six dollars in the healthcare industry. Cars are taking a huge toll on our society.

10. How will autonomous cars affect retail?

In a big way! Over time there will be no more customer-facing mechanics, tire shops, brake shops, car washes, auto parts stores, or gas stations. Over 10% of retail is car related and likely to disappear.

11. Autonomous vehicles will be used to create driverless mobile businesses.

As we removed the driver from the equation driverless tech opens the door to completely different ways of doing business, ones that separate themselves from a permanent location. The number one challenge of traditional retail has always been driving customers to the store. As we move into a highly mobile marketplace, this type of business will soon be able to drive to where the customers already are.

12. Over 80% of driverless cars will be one-passenger vehicles.

Since 85% of cars on the road only have one person in them, and since one-person vehicles will be cheaper, it’s very likely that upwards of 80% of autonomous fleets will be designed around single passenger occupancy. Naturally larger vehicle can be summoned whenever necessary. It may be counter intuitive, but people will actually prefer to one-person cars.

13. Cities will lose over 50% of their current revenue streams.

When we combine the loss of sales tax, retail stores, income from traffic violations, gas tax, vehicle licensing, parking meters, and parking garages, the total loss of revenue to a city becomes a very large number. Keep in mind, cities will undoubtedly develop new forms of revenue but that will require considerable foresight and planning.

14. Driverless tech will likely trigger a city pension crisis.

Numerous cities have made overly generous long-term commitments to fund staff pensions, a commitment that will be especially hard to manage when revenues begin to drop. With increased longevity, most pension funds were never adequately funded in the first place. Since driverless tech will undermine many of our city’s existing revenue streams, the challenges they’re facing today will transition into a full-blown pension crisis for many of them in the future. There will be no easy solutions for bailing out these super expensive pension plans.

15. We will reach the peak demand for oil before 2040.

Once we reach peak demand for oil, stemming from a surge in wind, solar, and nuclear, prices will start to plummet. Driverless tech will hasten the shift to electric cars. There are many geopolitical implications that will accompany this change. Petroleum will continue to be valuable for making plastics and other materials, but will not be burned for energy at any scale. Many companies, countries, and investors have already started making plans for what comes next.

16. Location will no longer matter.

In the past, being in business was all about “location, location, location.” However, as the driverless world evolves, passengers will become much more involved in working, watching movies, and playing games throughout the commute. As a driver, we become very invested in the landmarks along the way, and understanding the context of our location. But once drivers become passengers, they will be paying far less attention to local landmarks. As a result, it will be far easier to just ask your car to take you to whatever store or business you want to go to, regardless of proximity to your current location. Perhaps a better way of thinking about this is that location will still matter, but it will matter differently.

12. Over 5 million acres of parking lots will soon become available for redevelopment.

Currently 14% of Los Angeles is dedicated to parking. We have an amazing amount of land dedicated to parking – over 5 million acres to be precise. Demand for parking will begin to dwindle over the coming decades and this property will be sold as prime real estate for redevelopment.

18. Owning a car will soon become a very expensive hobby.

Autonomous vehicles will cause car ownership to evolve from a necessity to a luxury, to an expensive hobby. As dealerships and gas stations begin to dwindle, the overall cost of owning and maintaining a car will begin to ratchet upwards. Once autonomous vehicles reach 20-50% of commuter traffic, the cost of traditional car ownership will skyrocket.

Entertainment options inside cars will grow exponentially.

19. Roughly 25% of today’s jobs will disappear as a result of autonomous vehicles.

Over the next 2-3 decades, driverless technologies will be either directly or indirectly responsible for the loss of 25% of all of today’s jobs. But that’s only part of the story. Virtually every aspect of society, in every country around the world, will be touched by driverless technologies, and the vast majority of it is destined to improve our global standard of living. Job losses will be offset by job creation. Businesses that disappear will be replaced by innovative new businesses built around the ingenious new capabilities autonomous vehicles provide.

20. The automobile insurance industry will dwindle to a fraction of its current size.

Total personal automobile insurance premiums in the U.S. stood at about $173 billion in 2018. According to KPMG, accidents will decline 80% by 2040 due to autonomous transportation. While the cost per accident may rise substantially because new cars and their parts are more expensive, once driverless tech hits its stride, the decline will be dramatic and result in sizable reductions in loss and premiums. More than 90% of accidents each year are caused by driver error.

21. The number of taxi and truck drivers will drop, eventually to zero.

In its place we will see many of the same people working at truck and transport command centers. Someone born today might not understand what a truck driver is or even understand why someone would do that job — much like people born in the last 30 years don’t understand why someone had ever been employed as a switchboard operator.

22. Lobbying efforts surrounding autonomous vehicles will get ugly.

The biggest losers in driverless tech will be insurance, banks, and auto dealerships and they will spend heavily to muck up the political playground for this emerging industry.

23. Driver’s licenses will start to dwindle as will the Department of Motor Vehicles in most states

. People will start using other forms of ID but biometrics and face recognition will pave the way for the inevitable digitization of all personal identification.

24. No more DUIs. Traffic tickets will dwindle and disappear altogether

along with traffic court, lawyers, DAs, and all the revenue streams they perpetuated. This will happen relatively soon since all driverless vehicles will operate at the correct speed and there will be fewer options for slipping between vehicles and racing down an open stretch. Speed junkies, for the most part will go away since few people will even care how fast they’re going.

25. Police departments will shrink dramatically.

With up to 80% of today’s police forces focused on traffic control, cops that survive the transition will soon have a far less visible presence and a substantially different daily routine.

26. Alcohol and cannabis consumption will rise.

Restaurants and bars will sell more because people will consume more, as they no longer need to consider how to get home and will be able to consume inside vehicles. Many self-driving vehicles will come equipped with their own mini-bars.

27. Tech companies will study every little detail inside each car.

Companies like Google and Facebook will accumulate data on everything related to customer movements and locations. Unlike GPS chips that only tell them where someone is at the moment, autonomous vehicle systems will know where people are going in real-time and how they’re preparing for what comes next.

28. Privacy mode for the inside of vehicles will be an upsell feature.

Privacy mode will be designed for those having business discussions, arguments, sex, affairs, doing illegal drugs, and much more. But it will come with heavy fines if the vehicle is somehow damaged or trashed during the blackout period.

As we enter the “driverless era,” the focus will shift to the passenger experience

Final Thoughts

My goal in writing this has been to spark your imagination about the dramatic changes that will soon take place.

Car designers today spend the vast majority of their time trying to optimize the driver experience. After all, the driver is the most important part of the ownership equation.

As we enter the “driverless era,” the focus will shift to the passenger experience. Very soon, cars with steering wheels will seem as outdated as dial telephones!

Fancy dashboards displaying dazzling amounts of information for the driver will become a thing of the past as riders fuss over on-board movies, music, and massage controls.

Some fleet owners will offer car experiences that are more conversational in nature, pairing socially compatible riders in a way to maximize conversations and improve the social environment. Others will stress the benefits of alone-time, offering a peaceful zen-like experience for those wishing to escape the hustle and bustle of work-life.

However, as we navigate our way towards a safer, more efficient society, we still have a few bumpy roads to go down before we see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Final Thoughts

As I’ve said many times, driverless technology will be the most disruptive technology in all history. And it will also come with it’s own complicated set of design issues.

Fleet privacy will become a huge issue. Is it ok to have cameras monitoring the inside of the car 24/7? Fleet owners will argue that it’s necessary to prevent vandalism and to know when the car is dirty. Riders will hate the idea of being spied on.

Business people, who would rather not deal with anything left behind by kids, pets, or the elderly will have the option of ordering higher-priced, but more business-friendly vehicles.

In fact, fleet owners will face constant challenges to have the right style and selection of vehicles to meet the ever-changing demands of their customer base.

In general, adoption rates will depend heavily upon pricing, which in turn will be determined by market forces and the overall level of competition between fleet owners.

Autonomous vehicles will pave the way for an exciting new wave of transportation, but it will take several iterations of change before we truly understand the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.