After 3+ years of delay due to pandemic-related supply chain issues, Elon Musk has announced that the first deliveries of the Tesla Semi will happen before the end of this year. This truck is still an operator-driven vehicle, not fully autonomous yet, although the Tesla Semi will have semi-autonomous driving technology built in to improve safety and driving efficiency.

In spite of Musk’s statement, many industry observers believe the release date will be in 2023. He has a lot on his plate at the moment, but many of us watching this space hope his trucks hit the road sooner than later.

Regardless of the date, this is welcome news. The extraordinary economic and environmental benefits of this technology certainly suggest a rapid transition to electric semis in the very near future.

Tesla isn’t alone in this space. Volvo Trucks, Nikola, and others are preparing to deliver their own electric trucks and Daimler already has their version on the road.

The Operational Economics

A back-of-the-envelope calculations making the rounds in the blogosphere demonstrates the incredible economic benefits of the Tesla Semi, and by extension, Tesla’s competitors as well.

At today’s fuel prices, the cost to move a block of freight 200 miles in a diesel-powered semi is $170, compared to $28 in electricity costs for a Tesla Semi. That’s an 84% savings, which yields a payback period of around two years, according to the company.

Tesla claims that big rig maintenance and repair costs will be reduced as well, given Tesla Semi’s simpler, less-mechanical operating systems.

Tesla Semi batteries will initially provide a range of 500 miles and can be recharged in roughly 2 hours using Tesla’s Megacharger, a technology the company promises to deploy widely. By 2025, the range will likely double and the recharge time, cut in half.

Government Incentives Add to the Value

Musk claims he doesn’t need government incentives and tax credits to make his Tesla Semi cost-effective. But provisions in the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act certainly will make the economics even more appealing, provided the vehicles from Tesla and the other U.S. electric semi-truck manufacturers qualify with respect to their use of parts and batteries made in the U.S.

Under the new law, purchasers of a qualifying heavy-duty electric truck will be eligible for a $40,000 tax credit – which may represent as much as 15% of the cost of the typical diesel-powered semi-truck – although the sticker price for many of the electric versions still remains a bit murky.

Additionally, major states, including New York and California, are offering voucher programs to rebate a portion of the cost of heavy-duty electric semi-trucks purchased in their states.

Where Will All That Electricity Come From?

Some observers are skeptical about the environmental benefits of electric vehicles (EVs), and they may have a point … up to a point. How is generating the electricity to power an electric semi-truck necessarily less environmentally damaging than the operation of the diesel-powered big rig itself? That depends, of course, on how the electricity that’s charging the electric semi-truck is generated.

We dove deep into that issue in a future of energy column earlier this year. And since that time, given Russia’s increasing weaponization of oil and natural gas, I’ve become more convinced than ever that our future energy sources must be centered around nuclear power – especially the new technologies related to thorium-based reactor systems. If the electricity delivered from our vehicle charging stations comes from nuclear and other non-polluting sources, we truly will reap all the environmental benefits from shifting to electric semi-trucks.

Those benefits will be huge. Commercial freight and trucking account for one-fifth of the fuel used in the U.S., and that proportion is on the rise. This transportation mode is on track to account for 40% of the increase in demand for oil in the next 10 years, according to International Energy Agency, an international non-governmental organization.

Other Benefits from Electric Semi-Trucks

And if the economic and environmental benefits aren’t enough, consider these other advantages of electric semi-trucks:

1. We’ll have reduced noise pollution in urban areas, not to mention the highways.
2. With that reduction in noise, it will be possible to develop housing communities closer to city centers along highways and major routes. This will slow the encroachment of suburbs on vacant open spaces.
3. The Tesla Semi and its counterparts will be easier and more comfortable to operate, likely increasing the attractiveness of the truck-driving profession. According to the American Trucking Association, the U.S. was short 80,000 truck drivers in 2021, which is expected to double by 2030. Electric semi-trucks will slow and possibly reverse that trend.
4. The fuel efficiency and reduced operating costs of electric semi-trucks will put downward pressure on consumer prices since transportation costs can represent as much as 10% of the price of a consumer good.
5. Electric semi-trucks reportedly will have improved torque and acceleration, so they’ll keep better pace with personal vehicles along the highways and especially on hills. This will reduce traffic backups and make the highways safer overall.
6. Many municipalities prohibit diesel truck operations at night, including loading and unloading, because of noise. With the quieter electric semi-trucks, those noise restrictions won’t be an issue and trucking transportation will become a more efficient delivery option.
7. With these more flexible delivery and pickup options, retailers will be able to minimize inventories, to an extent, operating more efficiently to improve profits or allow for price discounts.
8. Given the massive amounts of energy electric semi-trucks can store, in the event of a disaster with power outages, truckers could band together to create microgrids to power hospitals, communication centers, and other essential services.
9. The new electric truck designs will have a lower center of gravity, resulting in fewer rollovers. This means improved safety and fewer accident-related road closures.

Clean energy is all around us. It won’t be long until the range for an electric semi-truck is augmented with solar panels arrayed on the trailer and the top of the cab. That energy will also be tapped to maintain refrigerated trailers.

The challenge for the EV industry today is the demand for more range and more and faster-charging stations. But this is no different than what we have today.

Until then, electric semi-trucks will have to remain on shorter, closer-to-home runs and roundtrips, the same dilemma their smaller EV siblings face today.

Two recent developments will speed up the world’s transition to all-electric cars … and the demise of automobile/light vehicle internal combustion engines (ICE).

1. At the recent COP 26 conference in Glasgow, more than 100 entities signed the Glasgow Accord on Zero Emissions Vehicles to phase out ICE vehicles by 2035. Signatories included Ford and General Motors. Canada and the U.K. signed on, along with California, New York, Washington State, and the City of Dallas.
2. The recently enacted $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill in the U.S. includes $7.5 billion in funding for electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. The goal is to have 500,000 stations nationwide by 2030. We have roughly 100,000 at this time.

A Tipping Point

Politics aside, of these two developments, the infrastructure bill funding will have the biggest impact on our complete transition to EVs.

Most automakers have been offering at least one EV model for several years. But several technological and infrastructure issues have hurt their sales: the limited range for these vehicles on a single charge, the dearth of charging stations, and the fact that charging an EV even to 80% can take as long as 30 minutes. In the eyes of many consumers, these make an EV impractical as an “only car.”

However, new innovations in batteries and rapid charging are on the horizon. We’ll also see the proliferation of promising, on-the-go charging technologies that we’ve explored recently. I’ve been predicting a 1,000-mile range and 10-minute recharge time by 2025. We’ll need a couple more breakthroughs for that to happen but we’re quickly moving in that direction.

Along with that, when rapid-charging EV stations are as commonplace as gas stations, consumer hesitancy will fade away fast – well before 2035.

How Close Are We?

In 2020, electric vehicles made up 4.5% of new vehicle sales worldwide and represented roughly 1% of all the vehicles on the road. European countries led the way.

Let’s state the obvious, though. The transition to EVs will not happen at the same pace and by the same time in every country and region in the world.

Infrastructure and other resources are not and will not be equally distributed to make that happen. The transition also may not be as big a priority for countries that are facing far more serious challenges – like wars, coups, famines, and other imminent threats. So, we’ll see secondary markets for used ICE vehicles within less-developed countries for a decade or two. Localized auto manufacturers in those locations and others might even continue to produce ICE vehicles for local sale.

What’s the latest from the major international automakers on their transition to zero emission vehicles (whether battery or hydrogen fuel cell technology)? Here are a few details about their current plans:

• Audi – All new models released after 2026 will be EVs. However, the company will continue to build their current gas, diesel, and hybrid models until the early 2030s.
• Volvo – By 2025, 50% of their car sales will be EVs and 50% will be hybrids. After 2030, the company will only produce EVs.
• Ford – By 2025, 40-50% of their global sales will be EVs, and within Europe that figure will be 100%.
• Nissan – All their new cars sold in Japan, China, the U.S., and Europe will be EVs by the early 2030s.
• Volkswagen – All of their sales in Europe will be EVs by 2035, and shortly after that in the U.S. and China.
• General Motors – The company will sell only EVs by 2035.
• Honda – The company will sell only EVs in North America, China, and Japan by 2040.
• Hyundai – All of their models will be fully electric by 2040.

Bringing up the rear is Toyota, which is reportedly taking a heavier hydrogen battery approach and whose models will all be zero emissions by 2050.

The End of the ICE Age

Whatever the exact date, we’re rapidly nearing the final days of gas-powered cars, which will be a significant disruption to life and the current world order. While local government mandates may affect the timing for certain companies by a year or two, a world-wide shift to EVs won’t be driven by these edicts; the post-ICE world will be delivered by a handful of innovations.

When we get there, our world will look much different – and I’m not just talking about charging stations and sleek, quiet cars.

• Oil and gas sectors will decline.
  Currently, light duty vehicles – passenger cars and small trucks – consume about 40% of the petroleum produced in the U.S. The demise of these ICE vehicles will significantly disrupt the oil and gas industry over the next decade. Combine this with the current trends toward greater utilization of solar, wind, thermal, hydropower, and nuclear and fossil fuel exploration and production will be niche industries rather than driving the economy.
• Our changing economy.
  Remember how the deindustrialization of the 1970s and 1980s led to economic disaster in Detroit and across the “Rust Belt”? If energy companies continue to overly invest and rely on fossil fuel extraction and if governments don’t find a way to transition away from dependence on energy production taxes and fuel taxes, we’ll see similar localized economic busts in states like Texas, North Dakota, and New Mexico.
• Foreign policy will look different.
  The U.S., Russia, and China are three of the top five oil producing nations in the world. Others in the top 10 include Iraq, the UAE, Iran, and Kuwait. The clout of these countries is bound to shift, and the strategic diplomacy objectives of every country on earth will shift too. Countries that can offer the world the best energy technology will have the diplomatic edge.

What about Heavy Trucks and Equipment?

Heavier, diesel-powered vehicles – e.g., farm and construction equipment as well as Class 8 trucks and military vehicles – will outlive ICE light-duty cars and trucks. But their time is coming, too. Tesla (of course!) has introduced an electric semi-tractor, reportedly with better performance than diesel trucks. Major interstate ground shippers like DHL and Walmart are very interested in making the shift to EV trucks once additional battery innovation catches up.

Adjusting Our Perspective

That’s the interesting thing about the future and it’s various time horizons. Will we see widespread flying cars? A comprehensive metaverse? Asteroid mining and widespread drone delivery systems? Yes, we will. But these concepts probably seem as futuristic and far-fetched as the idea that we’d all be driving zero-emission EVs did to a rational person in 1960.

Several major automakers have recently announced they intend for 100% of their vehicles to be all-electric within the next two decades. That’s terrific and remarkable. Electric vehicle (EV) technology has come a long way. The EVs I’ve driven recently have great acceleration and overall performance.

Limiting Factors – Capacity and Charge Times

Achieving those EV production goals, though, will have to go hand in hand with innovations in charging and battery technology. For the average long-distance driver, if charging their EV isn’t ultimately as easy as pulling into a gasoline filling station, there will still be significant barriers for EV buyers. And this driver will still want to be able to cover 600 miles a day on a cross-country trip … and not spend more than 10-15 minutes in a recharging station, just as we do on today’s interstate fuel stops.

The state of the art is improving rapidly in both of these areas – range and charging speed. Tesla’s top-performing EV gets close to 400 miles per charge. Ford and Chevy models get 300+ and 250+ respectively.

Charge times are also improving, but these same companies still have a long way to go in that regard. Even the fastest DC charging systems, including the proprietary ones from Tesla, can require up to two hours for a full recharge. At that rate, I would estimate that every gas pump, especially along the interstates, will have to be replaced by at least 40 charging stations.

Of course, by 2035 or 2040, we’ll have seen continued improvements in EV battery and charging technology. EV ranges will be greater, and recharging will be faster than today. Charging stations will be much more common, either standalones or right alongside traditional gas stations.

Put Away the Nozzle

But we need to think outside the box regarding future technology for charging our EVs. We shouldn’t necessarily settle for the nozzle plug-in approach, the sit-and-wait solution that’s a carryover from auto fueling.

Researchers are exploring some fascinating alternatives to plug and charge. Imagine not having to stop to recharge your EV at all. Recent breakthroughs fall into two categories – EV charging by air and by land.

Other processes will need to be developed or adapted in conjunction with this, including a pretty big one: wireless charging technology for EVs, most likely using electromagnetic transmission.

On-The-Go Electric Delivery

A team in South Korea is designing an energy delivery drone called Nebo that will refuel an EV as it rolls down the road. They liken it to mid-air refueling of a military plane. The system would track the charge level of the vehicle and the location of the vehicle itself. When the charge is low, it would dispatch the Nebo drone – essentially a flying battery – to rendezvous with a car on the move, attach to its chassis, and deliver the charge.

Road Power

Another approach to powering EVs on the go is to supply the charge from where the rubber meets the road – the surface itself. Several of these systems are under development.

The first utilizes magnetized concrete, or ferrite, produced by the German company, Magment. Ferrite is concrete that contains recycled magnetizable particles. These particles can conduct electricity which can be drawn upon by automobiles driving over it through inductive charging plates on the car. Ferrite concrete reportedly costs the same as standard concrete.

The Indiana Department of Transportation is teaming with Purdue University on ferrite pilot projects and pavement tests. The energy transfer is very efficient, up to 95%, which means that one challenge for the researchers is to make sure the remaining 5% won’t cause harm to the vehicle or the passengers.

Researchers at Cornell University are taking a similar but slightly different tack. They’re exploring how to embed insulated metal plates under the pavement that create alternating electric fields to produce a high-frequency current that can be sent to an EV passing over it. They envision lanes with EV charging strips. This technology could also be deployed above the surface in urban areas, with units attached to stop signs, for example. This would allow nearby EVs to pick up a small charge while they’re stopped.

It’s reasonable to expect, though, that all of these systems would be applied at least initially on interstate routes and highways. Local EV traffic will still get by with ever-improving battery capacity and quicker and quicker recharging technologies.

What Will it Be?

I’m pulling for the drone-power delivery system.

At first glance, the road-based technologies seem more practical … until you consider that the changeover would entail tearing up thousands of miles of lanes, and then either repaving them with ferrite or installing the charging plates and then repaving. In either case, given the lane closures or even the construction of adjoining lanes, the transition would be a nightmare with construction closures and slowdowns confronting interstate truck and passenger vehicle travel for many years. The cost would be considerable, to say the least.

The most remarkable future of all, one we should all be striving for, is one that combines Nebo, or either of the road surface charging systems, with self-driving vehicles. In this scenario, we’ll have passenger and manned or unmanned commercial vehicles traveling nonstop, even 24/7, for 365 days a year..