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		<title>The History of the Office: From Medieval Scriptoriums to Today’s Hybrid Hubs</title>
		<link>https://futuristspeaker.com/future-of-work/the-history-of-the-office-from-medieval-scriptoriums-to-todays-hybrid-hubs/</link>
					<comments>https://futuristspeaker.com/future-of-work/the-history-of-the-office-from-medieval-scriptoriums-to-todays-hybrid-hubs/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Thomas Frey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Aug 2025 08:00:44 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Future of Work]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[covid]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[coworking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dual home office]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future of technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hybrid work models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[urbanization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wellness zones]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://futuristspeaker.com/?p=1041082</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The post <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com/future-of-work/the-history-of-the-office-from-medieval-scriptoriums-to-todays-hybrid-hubs/">The History of the Office: From Medieval Scriptoriums to Today’s Hybrid Hubs</a> appeared first on <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com">Futurist Speaker</a>.</p>
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					<h1 class="entry-title">The History of the Office: From Medieval Scriptoriums to Today’s Hybrid Hubs</h1>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><h2>A Journey Through Centuries of Workplace Transformation</h2></div>
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				<span class="et_pb_image_wrap has-box-shadow-overlay"><div class="box-shadow-overlay"></div><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="1200" height="674" src="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-the-history-of-the-office.jpg" alt="Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey Blog: The History of the Office" title="The History of the Office" srcset="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-the-history-of-the-office.jpg 1200w, https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-the-history-of-the-office-980x550.jpg 980w, https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-the-history-of-the-office-480x270.jpg 480w" sizes="(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1200px, 100vw" class="wp-image-1041084" /></span>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><p style="text-align: center;">Medieval monks used medieval scriptoriums comprised of a desk, chair, and storage shelves, very similar to today&#8217;s basic office setup.</p></div>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><h2>The Ancient Origins: Where Work Began</h2>
<p>The concept of the &#8220;office&#8221; is far older than most realize. The origins of the modern office lie with large-scale organizations such as governments, trading companies and religious orders that required written records or documentation. Medieval monks, for example, worked in quiet spaces designed specifically for sedentary activities such as copying and studying manuscripts. These early &#8220;workstations&#8221; in medieval scriptoriums comprised a desk, chair, and storage shelves—remarkably similar to today&#8217;s basic office setup.</p>
<p>Originating in Italy, the counting house was a central feature of commerce in the high Middle Ages and afterward. A counting house was a typing room, cash office, accounting hall and goods depot all in one. These Renaissance-era business centers were where all writing, calculating, cash collecting, accounting and correspondence were handled. The merchant&#8217;s desk became the most important item of furniture in the counting-house.</p>
<p>The term &#8220;office&#8221; itself traces back to Roman times, when &#8220;officium&#8221; described the administrative structure supporting magistrates. But it wasn&#8217;t until the 18th century that buildings with dedicated office spaces were constructed to meet the needs of expanding empires and global commerce.</div>
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				<span class="et_pb_image_wrap "><img decoding="async" width="936" height="526" src="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-birth-of-the-modern-office.jpg" alt="Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey Blog: Birth of the Modern Office" title="Birth of the Modern Office" srcset="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-birth-of-the-modern-office.jpg 936w, https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-birth-of-the-modern-office-480x270.jpg 480w" sizes="(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 936px, 100vw" class="wp-image-1041083" /></span>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><p style="text-align: center;">The British Empire required office space to handle paperwork and records related to office administration.</p></div>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><h2>The Industrial Revolution: Birth of the Modern Office</h2>
<p>The process started in London when the growth of the British Empire required office administration. Two buildings were designed to handle paperwork and records related to office administration, the Navy, and the increased commerce. These included the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admiralty_(United_Kingdom)" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="Admiralty (United Kingdom)">Admiralty Office</a>, a building for the Royal Navy, and a building for the East India Company.</p>
<p>The rise of industrialism, urbanization, and world trade in the 18th and 19th centuries brought about a sea change in the development of the workplace. Factories, mills, railroads, banking, oil, shipping, and insurance companies needed an increasing amount of space to house operations, executive offices, and clerks.</p>
<p>The late 19th century introduced scientific management principles that would define office culture for decades. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="Scientific management">Taylorism</a>, a scientific method of production management used for maximizing the efficiency of machines and workers espoused by industrial engineer Frederick Taylor, was universally applied to office layouts. Linear rows of desks were packed tightly to maximize efficiency and overseen by management in private offices.</p></div>
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				<span class="et_pb_image_wrap "><img decoding="async" width="936" height="526" src="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-the-typewriter-revolution.jpg" alt="Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey Blog: The Typewriter Revolution" title="The Typewriter Revolution" srcset="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-the-typewriter-revolution.jpg 936w, https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-the-typewriter-revolution-480x270.jpg 480w" sizes="(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 936px, 100vw" class="wp-image-1041086" /></span>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><p style="text-align: center;">The typewriter revolutionized office work in the late 1800s—accelerating productivity, replacing handwritten ledgers, and opening the door for women to enter the professional workforce in unprecedented numbers.</p></div>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><h2>The Typewriter Revolution: Technology Changes Everything</h2>
<p>The invention of the typewriter in the 1860s fundamentally transformed office work. Until refillable fountain pens were introduced in 1884, handwriting was a cumbersome process accomplished with pens dipped in ink. The ease and speed of communication on paper increased dramatically when typewriters became available in the late 1800s.</p>
<p>For business, though, it was an intoxicating improvement and uptake was rapid, with typewriters being ubiquitous by 1900 and produced by a wide variety of manufacturers. They transformed not only the output but the staff too, enabling rapid growth in the number of women working in offices.</p>
<p>The typewriter didn&#8217;t just change how documents were created—it revolutionized who created them. The typewriter, for better and for worse, has changed the women&#8217;s workplace since its inception, and though the typewriter has been swapped out for desktops and laptops, its legacy continues to define the world of work for women to this day. Typewritten documents, in the business world, began to supplant the old handwritten ledgers toward the end of the 19th century.</p>
<p>Women entered the workforce en masse as typists, with 94.9% of stenographers and typists were unmarried women according to the 1900 census. This created new opportunities but also established gender-segregated roles that would persist for decades.</p>
<h2>The Skyscraper Era: Reaching for the Sky</h2>
<p>At the end of the 19th century, the invention of the light bulb, typewriter, dictaphone, and telephone changed how the workplace functioned. The first steel-framed office towers with elevators were constructed, providing multi-floor offices.</p>
<p>With the invention of iron frames in 1860 and elevators in 1870, offices began expanding upwards. Chicago&#8217;s Home Insurance Building is often considered the first &#8216;skyscraper&#8217;. Multi-storeyed buildings quickly replaced the old-fashioned counting houses.</p>
<p>The 1930s saw the completion of iconic structures like the Empire State Building, while architects like Le Corbusier began reimagining office design with innovations like glass exteriors. This development necessitated new technologies: offices heated up to unbearable temperatures during summer. Carrier Corporation tackled the problem by introducing the first air-conditioning. Soon, fluorescent light bulbs entered the office, allowing spaces far away from windows to be properly lighted.</p>
<h2>The Computer Revolution: Digital Transformation</h2>
<p>The 1980s marked another seismic shift in office design and function. In the 1980s, the computer started to gain popularity in the workplace, which marked the beginning of a new technological era, changing the workplace forever.</p>
<p>The IBM 5150 PC, released in August 1981, is widely considered ground zero of the personal computing revolution. Business productivity soared thanks to specialized programs finally making it simple for employees to analyze data, create documents and manage projects right from their own office desks on PCs.</p>
<p>Jobs wanted to revolutionize the workplace by making computers more affordable and easier to use. In addition to phasing out typewriters, Apple also eliminated the job title &#8220;secretary&#8221; at the company, replacing it with &#8220;area associate&#8221; — a term the company felt better represented the wider range of job duties employees could perform with a personal computer.</p>
<p>The computer revolution had profound implications beyond just technology. To a substantial extent, the computer revolution explains the increasing wage gap that started to develop in the 1980s between those with a college education and those with a high-school education or less.</p>
<h2>The COVID-19 Watershed: Everything Changes</h2>
<p>March 2020 represented the most dramatic transformation in office culture since the Industrial Revolution. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted labor markets globally during 2020. The short-term consequences were sudden and often severe: Millions of people were furloughed or lost jobs, and others rapidly adjusted to working from home as offices closed.</p>
<p>A recent study highlighted that, before COVID-19, 2.9% of the total US workforce and around 2% of that in Europe engaged in emergency remote working. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, most workers had limited familiarity with remote working.</p>
<p>The pandemic forced an unprecedented experiment in remote work. Although 6.5 percent of workers in the private business sector worked primarily from home in 2019, the pandemic was the start of a massive experiment in full-time remote work for most workers and firms.</p>
<h2>What We Lost and What We Gained</h2>
<p>What We Lost: The pandemic fundamentally altered workplace dynamics, with significant losses in traditional office culture. After years of improvement, employee engagement took a turn for the worse in 2021. By 2024, the percentage of employees who are engaged at work fell to a 10-year low. In 2019, 55% of employees fully knew what was expected of them. This number plummeted when the pandemic hit and fell to a new record low in 2024 (44%).</p>
<p>Some companies are already planning to shift to flexible workspaces after positive experiences with remote work during the pandemic, a move that will reduce the overall space they need and bring fewer workers into offices each day. A survey of 278 executives by McKinsey in August 2020 found that on average, they planned to reduce office space by 30 percent.</p>
<p>What We Gained: Despite challenges, the shift also brought measurable benefits. Total factor productivity growth over the 2019–22 period is positively associated with the rise in the percentage of remote workers across 61 industries in the private business sector, even after accounting for pre-pandemic trends in productivity.</p>
<p>Today, more workers say they are doing this by choice rather than necessity. Among those who have a workplace outside of their home, 61% now say they are choosing not to go into their workplace, while 38% say they&#8217;re working from home because their workplace is closed or unavailable to them.</p></div>
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				<span class="et_pb_image_wrap "><img decoding="async" width="936" height="526" src="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-residential-architecture-reimagined.jpg" alt="Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey Blog: Residential Architecture Reimagined" title="Residential Architecture Reimagined" srcset="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-residential-architecture-reimagined.jpg 936w, https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-residential-architecture-reimagined-480x270.jpg 480w" sizes="(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 936px, 100vw" class="wp-image-1041095" /></span>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><p style="text-align: center;">Blending work and home life, the modern residence is being reimagined with multifunctional spaces that seamlessly integrate offices into everyday living.</p></div>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><h2>The Home Office: Residential Architecture Reimagined</h2>
<p>The shift to remote work has fundamentally transformed not just office design, but <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com/future-trends/11-thoughts-on-designing-homes-for-2040-and-beyond/" title="11 Thoughts on Designing Homes for 2040 and Beyond">residential architecture</a> itself. As homes continue to evolve, so does the need for spaces that serve multiple purposes. One of the key 2025 home office trends is the creation of multifunctional spaces. Your home office can double as a guest room, a library, or even a workout area.</p>
<p>Today&#8217;s home designs increasingly center around the reality that the house must function as both sanctuary and workplace. The project was designed for a designer couple who wanted their workplace to be an integral part of their daily routine. Catering to the two functions, a home office is located on the ground and semi‐basement floor, whereas the residential area is placed on the level above it.</p>
<h3>The Rise of Dual Home Offices</h3>
<p>Perhaps the most telling shift in residential design is the emergence of homes built around multiple work spaces. The traditional &#8220;3 bedroom, 2 bath&#8221; model is increasingly giving way to &#8220;3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 offices&#8221; as couples both work remotely and need dedicated, separate work environments.</p>
<p>Flexible workstations are a key component of the 2025 home office trends, featuring modular furniture that can be easily rearranged. Whether you need a standing desk for focused work, a cozy corner for brainstorming, or a large table for projects, adaptability is essential.</p>
<p>Modern home offices incorporate sophisticated technology and design principles that rival corporate workspaces. Smart technology is set to redefine home office design trends in 2025. Start your home office inspiration with a desk that automatically adjusts to your preferred height or lighting that shifts color temperature based on the time of day.</p>
<h3>Wellness-Centered Design</h3>
<p>The integration of wellness features into home office design reflects our deeper understanding of work-life balance. One of the standout home office trends in 2025 is the inclusion of wellness zones. These areas are dedicated to activities that promote physical and mental well-being, such as yoga, meditation, or simply taking a break with a cup of tea.</p>
<p>One of the most exciting home office trends for 2025 is the continual rise of <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com/future-trends/11-thoughts-on-designing-homes-for-2040-and-beyond/" title="11 Thoughts on Designing Homes for 2040 and Beyond">biophilic design</a>. This time, it incorporates natural elements—like plants, sunlight, and organic materials—into your workspace design. This residential transformation represents a complete reimagining of domestic space, where the boundaries between living and working have become permanently blurred, requiring architects and designers to create homes that serve as both productive workplaces and restorative living environments.</p></div>
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				<span class="et_pb_image_wrap "><img decoding="async" width="936" height="526" src="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-the-office-of-the-future.jpg" alt="Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey Blog: The Office of the Future" title="The Office of the Future" srcset="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-the-office-of-the-future.jpg 936w, https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/futurist-thomas-frey-the-office-of-the-future-480x270.jpg 480w" sizes="(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 936px, 100vw" class="wp-image-1041085" /></span>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><p style="text-align: center;">The office of 2025 blends physical and virtual worlds, with hybrid models, decentralized spaces, and immersive tech redefining how and where we work.</p></div>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><h2>The Office of the Future: Hybrid and Beyond</h2>
<p>Looking ahead, the office isn&#8217;t disappearing—it&#8217;s evolving. One of the most significant remote work trends we have been tracking in our research for the Demand for Skilled Talent report is the growth in hybrid job postings from 9% in Q1 2023 to nearly a quarter (24%) of new jobs at the start of 2025.</p>
<p>In early 2025, 61% of full-time employees were completely on-site, while 13% were fully remote, and 26% worked a hybrid arrangement. This hybrid model appears to be stabilizing as the new normal.</p>
<p><strong>The Reimagined Office Space:</strong> Office spaces in 2025 will be reimagined to reflect new working realities brought about by shifts in employee expectations and the widespread adoption of hybrid work models. Instead, companies are prioritizing designs that foster creativity, team interaction, and personal comfort.<br />The era of centralized headquarters is giving way to decentralized office spaces and remote work hubs designed for distributed teams. By 2025, more companies will adopt this flexible approach, creating smaller, strategically located offices or shared workspaces that cater specifically to remote employees.</p>
<p><strong>Technology as the Great Enabler:</strong> Future offices will be defined by their technology infrastructure. Collaboration has gone virtual, with many offices designed to support in-person workers and remote employees. Meeting rooms have immersive video conferencing setups with speakers, cameras, and smart screens to close the gap between geographically dispersed colleagues.</p>
<h2>Will We Still Have Offices? The Verdict</h2>
<p>The office isn&#8217;t dying—it&#8217;s being reborn. 98% of remote workers would work remotely for the rest of their careers and recommend remote work to others. 66% of respondents worldwide believe that working from home should be a legal right. Yet 47% of employees who work remotely at least some of the time say they&#8217;d be unlikely to stay at their job if they were called back to their offices full time.</p>
<p>The future office will serve different purposes than it did in the past. Rather than being a place where all work happens, it will become a destination for collaboration, creativity, mentorship, and company culture. The office is an important factor in communicating the necessary cues of leadership, not to mention enabling collaboration and communication.</p>
<p>The Bottom Line: COVID-19 was indeed a major turning point—perhaps the most significant workplace transformation since the Industrial Revolution. We lost some elements of traditional office culture, including spontaneous collaboration and clear hierarchical structures. But we gained unprecedented flexibility, global talent access, and new models of productivity.</p>
<p>The office of the future will be smaller, smarter, and more purposeful. It will coexist with home offices, coworking spaces, and digital collaboration platforms in an ecosystem designed around human needs rather than industrial efficiency. As we look ahead, one thing is certain: the centuries-long evolution of the office continues, shaped by technology, social change, and our ever-adapting understanding of how and where great work gets done.</p>
<p>The office may have started in medieval monasteries, but its future lies in hybrid flexibility—a fitting evolution for a concept that has always adapted to serve the changing needs of human enterprise.</p></div>
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<p>The post <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com/future-of-work/the-history-of-the-office-from-medieval-scriptoriums-to-todays-hybrid-hubs/">The History of the Office: From Medieval Scriptoriums to Today’s Hybrid Hubs</a> appeared first on <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com">Futurist Speaker</a>.</p>
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		<title>Deurbanization Part 2 &#8211; Ten New Predictions</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Thomas Frey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 May 2022 11:45:34 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Future Trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[housing industry]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[urbanization]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://futuristspeaker.com/?p=38425</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The post <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com/future-trends/deurbanization-part-2-ten-new-predictions/">Deurbanization Part 2 &#8211; Ten New Predictions</a> appeared first on <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com">Futurist Speaker</a>.</p>
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					<h1 class="entry-title">Deurbanization Part 2 &#8211; Ten New Predictions</h1>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><p>While some of my columns are global in nature, this one is focused primarily on the U.S. even though many of these trends may be applicable to other areas of the world.</p>
<p><a href="https://futuristspeaker.com/future-trends/deurbanization-how-will-this-new-trend-affect-you-in-the-future/" title="Deurbanization – How Will this New Trend Affect You in the Future">I first wrote about deurbanization in February of last year</a>, when we all were just starting to imagine an end in sight for the pandemic. We observed the tremendous opportunity for employees to move, given the lenient work-from-home and work-anywhere business models companies adopted out of desperation.</p>
<p>Freed from commuting requirements (and with stock market gains in their pockets and housing market gains just waiting to be realized), millions of people were empowered to move and log in to work remotely. A few moved into cities. Far more moved to escape them. Hardly any will be moving back to them.</p>
<p>Prior to the pandemic, 17% of U.S. employees worked remotely full time. <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122987/change-in-remote-work-trends-after-covid-in-usa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="Change in remote work trends due to COVID-19 in the United States in 2020">During the pandemic, that figure increased to 44%</a>. The number won’t stay that high, but I believe it won’t drop much below 30% moving forward in our new normal, nearly doubling the previous rate.</p>
<p>Many people thought deurbanization was temporary, just a wild pendulum swing that would right itself on the rebound. While I have no doubt it will rebound slightly or at least slow down, the die has been cast and certain trends and impacts won’t be reversed.</p>
<p>As we discussed early last year, deurbanization had the incredibly positive potential of “stirring the pot” from a sociological perspective. Cultures, viewpoints, and resources would flow along with these urban transplants. The former urbanites, in turn, would gain perspectives and sensitivities, along with a 20-point reduction in their blood pressure and 30% larger floor plans.</p>
<p>Before we explore whether that might be happening, let’s look closer at the relocation data.</p>
<h2>Who’s moving?</h2>
<p>According to a Redfin report, San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. were the top metro areas homebuyers chose to leave in January 2022, which was unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2021. That’s based on the net outflow, a measure of how many more <a href="https://www.redfin.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="Redfin.com">Redfin.com home searchers</a> looked to leave a city than move into it.</p>
<p>An analysis of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/04/metro-areas-shrinking-population-loss/629665/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="Why Americans Are Leaving Downtowns in Droves">U.S. Census data clearly indicates that remote work opportunities are pulling people out of the downtown areas specifically</a>. We should point out that the relative decline in population in the central urban areas is not completely due to relocation decisions. Declining birth rates in those areas and the slowing of immigration overall are limiting the kind of natural growth big cities historically have experienced.</p></div>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><h2>Why are they moving?</h2>
<p>Motivations are pretty apparent when you consider that each of those five urban centers ranks among the <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/most-expensive-us-cities-and-metropolitan-areas-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="What is the Real Value of $100 in Metropolitan Areas?">15 most expensive places to live in the U.S.</a> And four out of the five (Seattle was the exception) rank in the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2021/06/29/worst-traffic-los-angeles-new-york-newark/7803449002/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="A new study reveals which US city has the worst traffic, and it's no longer Los Angeles">top 10 for worst traffic congestion</a>.</p>
<p>Also, according to a fascinating survey from Move.com, finances, career, and personal/family considerations were among the primary reasons urbanites cited for their recent move, but “politics” and “culture” were commonly mentioned as secondary factors influencing their destination decisions.</p>
<p>For those hoping to “stir the pot” and break down polarization, that’s a bad sign. People tend to be drawn to their tribes and corresponding comfort.</p>
<h2>Where are they moving to?</h2>
<p>Still, even with an increasingly mobile society, people aren’t moving terribly far to save money, avoid traffic, and advance their careers. The Move.com survey found that only 20% of moves in 2021 were to a different state, 43% were within the same city, and 48% were less than 100 miles away.</p>
<p>But with regard to the more adventurous relocators, data from the Move.org survey hints that four cold-weather states are clearly net population losers. Oregon, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Illinois – were among the Top Ten states in terms of people leaving but they were outside of the Top Ten in terms of people moving in. Only three states that could be considered “cold weather” states were among the Top 10 for people moving in – Colorado (#5), Washington (#8), and New York (#9).</p>
<h2>Ten Predictions for the Future</h2>
<p>What do all of these trends add up to and how will this affect our future?</p>
<h3>1. The decline of the Northeast will continue</h3>
<p>States in that region will need to continue to reinvent themselves to compete for residents.</p>
<h3>2. There’ll be continued rapid business growth in the South and West and especially in the Southwest</h3>
<p>Major manufacturers especially will shift to these regions to be closer to markets and employees. Their materials and parts suppliers will follow close behind since supply chains in the future will be shorter (a topic to be addressed in a future column) and U.S. companies will choose to work not only with U.S.-based suppliers but those within their region. Blue-collar jobs follow employees and employees follow blue-collar jobs. The cycle will ratchet up.</p>
<h3>3. Politics will be homogenized&#8230;to a point</h3>
<p>Most political maps show Democratic concentrations in urbanized locations and Republican majorities in most rural and ex-urban areas. The outmigration of urbanites won’t be sufficient to turn many districts from blue to red, but political concentrations will be reduced. A politician representing a 55– 45 district will need to take a different approach than if the district had a 65-35 voter split.</p>
<h3>4. There’ll be a resurgence in regional train travel</h3>
<p>Passenger trains will make a comeback across the country and citizens of midsized cities that haven’t seen a passenger train or the inside of a train station in decades will have this option once more.</p>
<h3>5. Big cities will embrace tourists</h3>
<p>There will be no more ridiculing of people “looking at the tall buildings.” Given the declining populations and diminishing corporate presence, a city’s cultural and event offerings will be more important economic engines than ever before. Folks may not want to live there, but they’ll take a weekend in the Big City to see some shows, watch a professional sporting event, and enjoy some fine dining before slipping out of the city once more to go back home.</p>
<h3>6. Cities will struggle to serve those that can’t escape</h3>
<p>Not everyone is mobile or can work remotely. Those left behind in the downtowns will struggle as tax bases and services dwindle.</p>
<h3>7. We’ll hear more about filtering</h3>
<p>As urbanization shifts to counter-urbanization, the <a href="https://marketurbanism.com/2015/01/27/gentrification-in-reverse/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="Filtering: Gentrification in Reverse">gentrification of inner cities will reverse as well, leading to filtering</a> – the transition of existing higher-end housing stock to lower-income properties.</p>
<h3>8. Birth rates and family size will increase</h3>
<p>With better access to family-suitable housing, more couples will choose to form families. Many couples that find themselves surrounded by other families will join the club!</p>
<h3>9. News and sports coverage will become less coastal-focused</h3>
<p>Enough said.</p>
<h3>10. Wildfires and hurricanes will take larger human tolls</h3>
<p>Every region has its own categories of natural disasters and weather-related risks. But with more people living in the west and south, additional people and developments will be in the path of wildfires and coastal hurricanes, respectively.</p>
<p>The pandemic was a turning point in our history. Its repercussions caused seismic shifts in our society and sent us down some new paths while accelerating other trends already underway.</p>
<p>There’s no reason to think that deurbanization won’t continue, even if at a slower pace for the near term. Eventually, the pendulum will swing back and urban centers will begin to thrive, but the isolation of Covid is still firmly implanted in our memories.</p>
<p>Deurbanization doesn’t necessarily mean the actual population number declines. After all, New York City and San Francisco aren’t shrinking in raw population numbers but few would argue that it’s far more common to hear about people leaving those cities behind. In fact, though, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/media/12-major-american-cities-that-are-shrinking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="12 major American cities that are shrinking">many major cities are facing an actual declining population</a>, including many in the Northeast and Midwest, like Chicago.</p>
<p>These trends will impact and influence our future for years to come.</p></div>
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<p>The post <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com/future-trends/deurbanization-part-2-ten-new-predictions/">Deurbanization Part 2 &#8211; Ten New Predictions</a> appeared first on <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com">Futurist Speaker</a>.</p>
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		<title>Deurbanization &#8211; How Will this New Trend Affect You in the Future</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Thomas Frey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2021 09:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Future Trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[environmental issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pandemic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[urbanization]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://futuristspeaker.flywheelsites.com/?p=34273</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The post <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com/future-trends/deurbanization-how-will-this-new-trend-affect-you-in-the-future/">Deurbanization &#8211; How Will this New Trend Affect You in the Future</a> appeared first on <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com">Futurist Speaker</a>.</p>
]]></description>
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					<h1 class="entry-title">Deurbanization &#8211; How Will this New Trend Affect You in the Future</h1>
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				<span class="et_pb_image_wrap "><img decoding="async" width="1200" height="675" src="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/futurist-speaker-thomas-frey-deurbanization-impact-on-future.jpg" alt="Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey Blog: Deurbanization Impact On Future" title="Deurbanization - How will it Impact the Future " srcset="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/futurist-speaker-thomas-frey-deurbanization-impact-on-future.jpg 1200w, https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/futurist-speaker-thomas-frey-deurbanization-impact-on-future-980x551.jpg 980w, https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/futurist-speaker-thomas-frey-deurbanization-impact-on-future-480x270.jpg 480w" sizes="(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1200px, 100vw" class="wp-image-34303" /></span>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><p>The longstanding trend towards urbanization – urban areas growing faster than non-urban areas – was proceeding unabated until it turned on a dime in 2020 due to the COVID epidemic. The trend for the foreseeable future is now in exactly the opposite direction – deurbanization.</p>
<p>Those who doubt this – primarily commercial real estate property holders – are left to rebut it only by saying things along the lines of: “People have predicted the decline of cities in the past, but the lure of city life always proves too strong.”</p>
<p>I don’t think that will bear out this time because technology is the difference-maker.</p>
<p>Regardless, the short-term data supports the current reality of de-urbanization. Full service and self-service moving companies report that household move volume in 2020 was heaviest out of New York and California and into Idaho, North Carolina, and Maine.</p>
<p>And if people weren’t making interstate transitions, they were <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/on-common-ground/return-to-the-suburbs" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="Return to the Suburbs">moving to nearby suburbs</a>. This was especially apparent in New York City and all three of Texas’ major cities, according to national realtor data found in that same report.</p>
<p>The trend is continuing. According to the real estate website Zillow, residents of Los Angeles and New York City are still pursuing housing availability primarily in Boise, Phoenix, and Atlanta.</p>
<h2>It’s driven by work-from-home</h2>
<p>Until recently, work-from-home was viewed as a perk or an exception. It’s been the norm for nearly a year now, and many service companies have indicated it will be available for a sizable portion of their workforce for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>And why not? Communication and information technology strongly support it. Many workers really like it. And many more will like it once they don’t have to balance work with monitoring their children’s homeschooling.</p>
<h2>Trends vs. future implications</h2>
<p>Trends are easy to observe and somewhat easy to predict until things like a pandemic happen. But assuming de-urbanization is not a passing fad, what does this mean for our future? How will society change? What could a less dense (from the spatial perspective!) population mean for our economy, environment, political dynamic, and much more?</p>
<p>That’s where the futurist in me kicks in. Here’s what I see as the long-term implications of deurbanization:</p>
<h2>Broadened perspectives</h2>
<p>One of the benefits of de-urbanization is the economic “sprinkling effect,” in which higher-income workers move to outlying locations and support their local economies and tax bases.</p>
<p>I would take that a step further and predict that these transplants will also sprinkle other positive things – like ideas and diversity. This isn’t to say they won’t learn or benefit from the ideas and lifestyles of the long-time residents of their new hometowns as well.</p>
<p>I’m pretty certain that a transplant moving from downtown Seattle to Boise will encounter more people with a wider range of viewpoints in their new hometown. Granted, the differences might not be as pronounced as when the relocation is from Manhattan to the Hamptons.</p>
<p>Tribalism fades as people are exposed to more lifestyles and new ways of thinking. While you can certainly find diverse viewpoints within a major city, in an urban setting you may also be less likely to “have to” engage with “others” since your own tribe is so readily nearby.</p>
<h2>Weakened geography-based political densities</h2>
<p>Political affiliations vary dramatically when you compare major <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-reveals-the-downsides-of-urbanization/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="Coronavirus and Urbanization City Downsides">urban centers</a> to the suburbs and then to rural America. Regional differences mute this somewhat (e.g., Houston vote tallies will look different from those in Los Angeles), but relatively speaking there is a measurable difference.</p>
<p>De-urbanization will diffuse those geographic voting densities, if only by degree. We’ll have less-polarized districts – even states. The red-blue congressional district maps on election night will be somewhat more blended. The further implication? A shift toward the center by our leaders who must appease a more diverse body of constituents.</p></div>
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				<span class="et_pb_image_wrap has-box-shadow-overlay"><div class="box-shadow-overlay"></div><img decoding="async" width="700" height="246" src="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/futurist-speaker-thomas-frey-deurbanization-an-increased-environmental-impact.jpg" alt="Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey Blog: Deurbanization An Increased Environmental Impact" title="Deurbanization will have an increased Environmental Impact" srcset="https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/futurist-speaker-thomas-frey-deurbanization-an-increased-environmental-impact.jpg 700w, https://futuristspeaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/futurist-speaker-thomas-frey-deurbanization-an-increased-environmental-impact-480x169.jpg 480w" sizes="(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 700px, 100vw" class="wp-image-34300" /></span>
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				<div class="et_pb_text_inner"><h2>An increased environmental impact</h2>
<p><a href="/global-trends/15-global-challenges-changing-times-changing-priorities/" title="Global Challenges - Changing Times">Environmental issues</a> are a national challenge. Unfortunately, a shift to the suburban areas to experience rural life will not help on that front.</p>
<p>City-dwellers who used to count on mass transit will drive more. They’ll live in larger homes with a bigger footprint. The energy needed to heat and cool these homes will be significantly more than it was for their smaller city dwellings and apartments.</p>
<p>This will move us one step back in achieving our pollution abatement goals. We’ll need to adopt more significant, dramatic emission reduction policies if we’re going to reduce emissions to the level most experts call for.</p>
<h2>Improved corporate efficiencies</h2>
<p>Today’s news is full of accounts of tech and other companies in B2B industries who had strong years in 2020, despite the pandemic. That’s due in part to the efficiencies they implemented during that period, including maintaining smaller inventories and benefitting from more productive people working from home.</p>
<p>This employee productivity was enhanced thanks to the absence of commuting snags, fewer work-related distractions, more tightly run meetings, and a dramatic reduction in travel. No doubt some of those practices will continue to some degree post-pandemic, even in office settings, as travel and meetings will need to pass an “essentialness” test. And home-based employee productivity will soar even higher in the months and years ahead, when their children are back in school.</p>
<p>There’s one other corporate trend that will enable de-urbanization, instead of just reacting to it. Companies will continue to move away from major high-rise headquarters in Tier 1 cities and shift to multiple regional offices and campuses in Tier 2 locations.</p>
<h2>Diffusion of the arts</h2>
<p>Some have argued that de-urbanization will lead to a loss of cultural vibrancy – as they presumably focus only on the loss of vibrancy for residents who remain behind in big cities. That strikes me as somewhat elitist, and I would encourage those observers to think about the other side of this zero-sum tradeoff.</p>
<p>When it comes to culture and the arts, a Dallas socialite’s loss is an Omahan’s gain. What could possibly be wrong with urban transplants bringing additional resources and artistic expertise to support the arts in smaller cities and rural areas? In the future, the arts will flourish – for many more people.</p>
<h2>De-Urbanization is De-Homogenization</h2>
<p>The common theme in all of this is that voluntary de-urbanization will stir the pot. It’s like knocking over the Monopoly board once someone has accumulated most of the money and properties. “Whoops! Now we have to start over!” De-urbanization isn’t as dramatic as that of course, but it is a small step in an invigorating new direction.</p>
<p>COVID is a horrible disease. If a family member, friend, or loved one of yours suffered or lost their life because of it, no one can expect you to consider any silver lining.</p>
<p>But COVID has triggered macro-level changes in our world – multiple distinct adjustments that will play out and forever change the trajectory of certain trends into our future.</p>
<p>De-urbanization will be one of those changes for the better – right along with 2020’s other positive divergences in healthcare, pharmaceutical research, corporate social responsibility, are others.</p></div>
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<p>The post <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com/future-trends/deurbanization-how-will-this-new-trend-affect-you-in-the-future/">Deurbanization &#8211; How Will this New Trend Affect You in the Future</a> appeared first on <a href="https://futuristspeaker.com">Futurist Speaker</a>.</p>
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