There’s no question our skies are getting crowded. In addition to their use by recreational hobbyists, drones are supporting farming, construction, real estate, deliveries, and nearly every other major industry. They’re also being used for more nefarious purposes like smuggling and illegal surveillance.

A few nights ago, I had a dream about a security drone that dropped out of the ceiling of a store and proceeded to attack a gunman with disruptive flashing lights and noise. This started me thinking about all the ways drones may be used in future security systems.

We’re Moving Toward Civilian Drone Weaponization

Two trends are coming together that seem to indicate that in the future, law enforcement drones won’t just be used for search and rescue or crowd monitoring.

First law enforcement and private security are increasingly using drones in threat situations to find and track suspects engaged or suspected in a crime. In some cases, drone dispatching is so fast and automated, that it can have a deterrent effect on a crime in progress.

Second, the armed forces have rapidly militarized the use of drones – for nearly two decades they’ve been used in the Middle East to destroy terrorist targets for example.

Put those trends together and how long will it be before we have the weaponization of drones for domestic law enforcement and private security?

It’s not a huge leap from the today’s world of armed police officers and security professionals to a point where those same officers and guards use drones more proactively – and lethally, perhaps arming them with a gun, taser, laser, or large speakers that emits sonic bursts.

The Current Use of Drones by Law Enforcement

Drones quickly have built a track record of saving lives thanks to their ability to respond to scenes quickly and do methodical airborne searches at lower altitudes than planes or helicopters. Law enforcement drones are accompanied by optical and thermal sensors, spotlights, video cameras, and loudspeakers. Police drones and their operators have saved hundreds of lives.

Over the past decade, several states have considered authorizing police forces to use lethal weapon-armed drones, while others have proposed limiting them to non-lethal weapons like rubber bullets, tasers, or tear gas. Most major police departments around the country, though, haven’t taken steps to arm their drone fleet with lethal or nonlethal weaponry.

In recent mass shooting events, though, it would seem that even nonlethal drone weapons might be advantageous if only to slow down or distract the assailant. The challenge, of course, would be the cost of deploying them in advance in indoor settings, like in the store ceiling in my dream.

Law Enforcement Trying to Keep Up

Drones with greater range are becoming more commonplace and inexpensive, putting law enforcement, especially federal groups, on the defensive. Environmental organizations have demonstrated how easy it may be to infiltrate the airspace of a nuclear facility using a commonly available hobby drone.

Drones as personal weapons

This also raises the question of whether in the U.S., a citizen’s “right to bear arms” includes the right to own a drone that is armed?

In 2019, the Federal Aviation Administration said “no,” in no uncertain terms. The FAA specifically called out the illegality of drones armed with “attached guns, bombs, fireworks, flamethrowers, and other dangerous items.”

Violators are subject to a $25,000 fine. Apparently, word has not gotten around, though, and many of these weaponry/drone hobbyists are posting videos on social media of their creations in action.

Drone Defense

Given the potential for this kind of drone lethality or criminal mischief, drone detection is a thriving industry as well. Installations such as power plants, refineries, airports, and military bases have drone detection systems to notify security teams of an unauthorized drone in the vicinity.

A California company now offers a Cloud-based drone detection service that not only will spot a suspicious drone that enters a defined airspace, but it performs a risk assessment of the drone’s possible intentions. If the facility is authorized, the company’s other products can bring down the drone, not with an air-to-air missile, but with a “surgical mitigation” technology that safely brings the drone to earth.

Like most of today’s emerging technology, drones can be used for good and for evil – and there’s some shades of gray in between.

In 2015 I wrote a column talking through the issues that needed to be resolved before we would ever see a significant level of deliveries by drones. In that column, I brought up 37 issues that still needed to be resolved.

Not surprising, the evolution of drone technology has solved many of them, including some questions related to durability, range, and collision avoidance. Other issues, such as designated delivery landing spots, drone education, and a “flying drone bill of rights” were generally less technical and more system-related.

That said, we still have a long ways to go before drones are commonplace in our neighborhoods, suburbs, and cities. But the prospects for drone delivery are increasingly positive and closer than ever.

Context

The commercial use of drones is already fairly widespread. Maybe their most visible manifestation is their use in news coverage and how they’ve replaced blimps at major sporting events. That’s just scratching the surface, though. Behind the scenes and above our heads drones are supporting:

• Law enforcement – surveillance and investigations
• Insurance – reviewing property damage
• Construction – conducting safety inspections
• Agriculture – monitoring crops
• Military – reconnaissance

Until now, though, commercial drones have been used as “flying cameras.” The next growth phase for commercial drone usage will be for delivery services. That’s when they’ll really catch our attention – literally – and become an integral part of our lives.

That won’t be too far off. Analysts estimate that the global drone delivery service industry will stand at more than $9.5 billion by 2027.

The Current State of Drone-Based Delivery

How far have we come in six years? The Federal Aviation Administration seems on board with drone deliveries in theory, which is an important next step. Late last year the FAA approved Amazon’s use of drones to deliver packages in remote, rural areas. Alphabet’s (parent company of Google) Wing Aviation and UPS’s Flight Forward service had also received similar approvals.

These companies are certified as “air carriers,” but apparently, regulators are still concerned about drones and packages falling from the sky in more urban areas. It appears that for the time being at least, the FAA wants humans closely monitoring each one … if not flying them remotely.

It’s interesting to note that, according to one consultant in this area, the FAA isn’t taking the approach of telling companies exactly how to operate safely. Instead, they’re evaluating the safety measures these companies propose and describe.

Presumably, these three companies have already addressed several of the safety issues I mentioned six years ago. We can’t know for sure, though, since the manuals and the other information they’ve supplied to the FAA are confidential due to their proprietary technology. Experts suggest these safety solutions include parachutes; self-destruct capabilities; and other controlled, emergency descent failsafe features.

Future Trends in Drone Technology and Applications

Technology will continue to improve in ways that will make drones an even more viable delivery vehicle.

The evolution of single-charge lithium-metal batteries to replace larger lithium-ion batteries will give drones greater range. And enhanced autonomous navigation will enhance their maneuverability to the point they can navigate their way within a residence or a building to deliver more sensitive material.

As with so many aspects of our lives, the pandemic sped up certain technology applications that were already trending. One of those is the use of drones in healthcare, including for delivery of vaccines in remote, third-world areas. This experience has made healthcare providers eager to not only explore prescription delivery options but to provide a system to collect certain, easier-to-obtain human tissue and fluid samples for analysis in conjunction with a telehealth house call.

This calls for drones with fly/drive capabilities that can enter a residence, navigate the rooms, and perhaps even park itself on the dining room table, delivering medications while the patient telecommunicates with the physician and loads up the drone with samples to carry back on the return flight.

Researchers at the University of Cincinnati have developed a prototype drone to do exactly that, including outfitting it with cameras and a display screen to facilitate direct communication between the patient and the healthcare professional.

The possibilities are endless. Last year, NATO tested a system in which drones could resupply isolated troops in response to requests from individual soldiers.

Specialized Delivery Sectors

The different players in drone-based delivery will make advances that support their respective business models. Alphabet’s Wing Aviation is likely to reflect Google’s strength in small business and local retail.

The company is exploring drone delivery for retail purchases, food, and otherwise, for example. UPS is expected to continue to extend its legacy of prescription medicine delivery using drones. Amazon will take advantage of its localized warehouses and use their drones for short-distance delivery of smaller packages, taking some of its fleet of vans off the road.

Drone Traffic Control

And speaking of roads, we can expect early drone delivery services to resemble vehicles traveling on a road system 400 or so feet in the air. Think of it in terms of drones on a road grid with major arteries connecting to minor streets, rather than a flock of birds flying wherever they wish. In fact, to facilitate residential deliveries and minimize nuisance, these drone routes may very closely mirror our current street maps.

The big breakthrough, though, will be when the FAA approves autonomous operating drones – not piloted and not supervised. That’s when companies will be able to scale their operations tremendously.

At that point, drones will become flying robots, doing their jobs better than we can, which we should be getting used to by now.

We’ve made a lot of progress on the 37 delivery drone-related challenges I raised six years ago. But according to my calculations, there are at least 14 more to go, even if I’m grading our progress generously.

The now-familiar models of commercial drones first came on the scene15 years ago. It wasn’t too long until aeronautical entrepreneurs shifted their sights to scaling the technology to make these vehicles large and powerful enough to transport people over short distances.

Today, we’re quite a bit further along in that area than many people are aware. Prototypes are already flying and China seems to be taking the lead in the field.

And now that the drone passenger technology seems well in hand, futurists and city transportation planners are studying the logistics and implications of localized drone commuter and taxi systems, along with the land-based infrastructure that will support it.

Back to the City

Back in the late 1960s, as passenger jet aircraft were quickly replacing propeller-based commercial fleets across the country, municipalities moved airports outside the city limits so that they could provide adequate room for runways and terminals.

Ten years from now, it’ll be just the opposite, passenger drone systems will spur the development of central city mini airports. Lots of them.

Baby Steps – Drone Commuting and Drone Ports

The first stage of passenger drone commercial transportation will be to provide service between fixed points along specific corridors – such as from a central city hub to a nearby suburb, or between the central city locations of two nearby cities. This will essentially serve as an alternative to automobile or mass transit travel between those two points.

At either end of those flights will be “airports for flying cars” envisioned by Urban-Air Port to support a “highway in the sky” system – in this case, commercial air taxi or “flying car service” between cities in the UK.

If you look closely at the artist’s renderings of their drone airport, it’s reminiscent of a small general aviation terminal. However, in real life, it may look more like the lift lines on a January weekend in Vail!

This back-and-forth commuter transportation model with its terminal facilities provides proof of concept for the subsequent generation of passenger drone commercial service – drone taxis, and all the surface structures that we’ll need to support them.

But before we go into that, let’s take a moment to think through the terminology. Will they be called “mini airports,” “air taxi ports,” or “droneports?” We can do better than “flying car airports,” when we’re referring to these high-volume mass transit systems. In all likelihood, someone like Elon Musk will come up with a name like “giga-ports” and it’ll catch on. But for this column let’s stick with “droneports” to get more familiar with the concept!

Giant Leaps – Drone Taxis and Drone Depots

Compared to drone commuting, there will be no regular routes between endpoints for drone taxis, just travel between a fixed set of departure/destination sites, or what I call “drone depots.” Think of drone depots in terms of today’s auto-based taxi stands. The difference is that drone taxis will only pick up and drop off at one of those depot locations – there will be no stopping at a point in between.

And unlike the commuter drone ports envisioned in the Coventry image, drone depots for taxi service will be less extensive. Since urban land is limited and expensive, they’ll resemble today’s helipads with minimal accompanying building infrastructure – just enough to keep the passengers out of the elements while they wait.

As an aside, large companies will maintain or contract with a fleet of passenger drones, analogous to today’s private company car services. Their drone depots will be in private locations, somewhere on their campuses or on top of their buildings.

In contrast, public drone depots will take over portions of parking lots, for example. They’ll be strategically scattered throughout the city adjacent to light rail stations, office parks, medical centers, and art districts. As demand increases, each location will have more and more pads.

What will our future drone taxi experience be like? Will passengers simply queue up in the “lift line,” enter the next available vehicle, select a destination from the fixed list, pay, sit down, and buckle up? As with today’s surface taxis, drone taxi passengers will indicate if they’re willing to share a drone or not. Pricing will likely vary based on that decision.

With passengers in place, a central navigation operating system will plan the route and
sequence the drone into the airspace, and it will safely and efficiently fly to the requested destination(s). Upon arrival, passengers will exit, and others will board. With no driver fatigue or bio-breaks to account for, a drone could conceivably operate 24/7 except in the worst of weather or for periodic scheduled maintenance. During their limited time on the ground, the drones will take advantage of automated, rapid energy charging.

Will Drone Taxis Replace Ground-Based Taxi Services?

Drone taxi services will grow over time, but the number will still be small. I don’t see how drone taxi services can operate in the same way as automobile taxis do, with pick up and drop off at any conceivable address.

Walmart or Amazon may find a way to do this for home-based package deliveries, but it will be more difficult to fit all those larger drone taxis into our urban skies traveling to tens of thousands of locations in a city. In the distant future’s three-dimensional, Jetson’s-type cities, though, it might be feasible.

What Does This Mean for Flying Cars?

Can we now check “flying cars” off the “finally-here list” of future inventions? Yes, even though drone commuters and drone taxis don’t exactly match everyone’s past vision of an aero car in every driveway.

Drone taxis are quickly morphing into the prototype for personal flying cars, which will certainly need to be self-flying. In reality, we’re still several years away from that, as most people today still struggle with the idea of riding in a self-driving car.