The future is here, and it’s filled with advanced technologies that are revolutionizing every aspect of our lives. From shopping and dating to education and travel, the possibilities are endless. But what does this mean for how we live, work, and play? Let’s take a closer look at some scenarios to see how AI and other technologies will shape our future.

Scenario 1 – Fred and Jessica Applying for a Home Mortgage in 2040

In 2040, Fred and Jessica were exploring the possibilities of applying for a home mortgage using both crypto and traditional currencies. They had been researching the benefits of using cryptocurrencies for mortgage payments and were excited to explore the options available to them.

Using advanced digital tools, Fred and Jessica were able to compare mortgage rates and terms offered by lenders that accepted crypto payments, as well as traditional lenders that only accepted fiat currencies.

They found that some crypto-friendly lenders offered lower interest rates and more flexible repayment schedules than traditional lenders while also allowing them to make payments in popular cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin.

After exploring their options, Fred and Jessica decided to apply for a mortgage using both crypto and traditional currencies. They submitted their application online and were pleased to find that the process was fast and efficient, thanks to the use of advanced digital tools and AI-powered assistants.

Their application was quickly approved, and they received a personalized mortgage offer that allowed them to make payments using either crypto or traditional currencies. They were able to review the terms and conditions of the offer, as well as the interest rate and repayment schedule, before accepting the mortgage.

Scenario 2 – Sarah Going Grocery Shopping in 2040

As Sarah walked into the grocery store, she was greeted by a friendly robot that offered to assist her with her shopping needs.

Sarah used her smartphone to scan a QR code on the robot, which immediately recognized her and provided her with a personalized shopping list based on her previous purchases, dietary restrictions, and preferences. The robot then handed her a sleek and modern shopping cart equipped with advanced sensors, cameras, and AI algorithms.

As Sarah made her way through the store, the shopping cart followed her around autonomously, offering personalized recommendations for complementary products based on her preferences. The cart also used its sensors to detect the items that Sarah placed in it, ensuring that she didn’t forget anything on her list.

When Sarah was finished with her shopping, she simply walked through a no-touch facial recognition payment system, which identified her and charged her account automatically. The shopping cart then autonomously returned to its charging station, ready to assist the next customer.

Scenario 3 – Sam and Tiffany Speed Dating in an Autonomous Vehicle in 2040

Sam and Tiffany had signed up for a speed-dating event and were picked up by a sleek and modern autonomous vehicle that had been specially designed for the occasion.

As they settled into the comfortable and futuristic interior of the vehicle, the AI-powered virtual assistant greeted them and explained the rules and format of the speed-dating event. The vehicle then started to drive them to their first date location, a trendy restaurant reserved exclusively for the event.

As they arrived at the restaurant, the autonomous vehicle parked itself, and the virtual assistant provided them with a brief overview of their first date. They had a great time getting to know each other over a delicious meal, and when it was time to move on to the next location, the autonomous vehicle drove them to their next destination.

Over the course of the evening, Sam and Tiffany were introduced to several potential matches, and they found themselves enjoying the unique and futuristic speed-dating experience. The autonomous vehicle provided them with a safe and comfortable environment in which to get to know each other, and the AI-powered virtual assistant ensured that the event ran smoothly and efficiently.

As the evening came to a close, the autonomous vehicle drove Sam and Tiffany back to their respective homes, and the virtual assistant asked them for feedback on their speed-dating experience. Sam and Tiffany agreed that the autonomous vehicle provided a unique and enjoyable setting for the event, and they both felt optimistic about the potential for a future relationship.

Scenario 4 – William and Bobbi Lynn Launching an Entertainment Business in 2040

In 2040, William and Bobbi Lynn decided to launch an entertainment business that leveraged the latest AI and VR technologies. They wanted to create a unique and immersive experience that would transport people to new and exciting worlds, and they had spent months planning and preparing for their business launch.

Their business, called “Virtual Worlds”, allowed customers to enter immersive VR experiences that were powered by advanced AI algorithms. These experiences ranged from adventurous and action-packed to serene and calming, providing something for everyone.

As William and Bobbi Lynn launched their business, they quickly found that there was a strong demand for their unique and innovative product. People were eager to escape into new and exciting worlds, and Virtual Worlds provided a safe and immersive environment in which to do so.

The business quickly grew in popularity, and William and Bobbi Lynn constantly innovated and improved their product. They invested in the latest AI and VR technologies, ensuring that their experiences remained cutting-edge and advanced.

As their business grew, William and Bobbi Lynn hired a team of skilled AI and VR experts who helped them create even more immersive and exciting experiences. They were constantly pushing the boundaries of what was possible with technology and became known as entertainment industry leaders.

In 2040, William and Bobbi Lynn’s Virtual Worlds became one of the most popular and successful entertainment businesses in the world, with a loyal following of customers who couldn’t get enough of their unique and immersive experiences.

Scenario 5 – Going to School for 10-Year-Old Ella in 2040

In 2040, going to school had become a truly futuristic experience, and for 10-year-old Ella, it was an exciting and enjoyable part of her daily routine. Ella’s day started when she woke up in her smart bed, which was equipped with sensors that tracked her sleep patterns and adjusted the temperature and lighting to optimize her sleep.

As she got ready for school, Ella used her smart mirror to get personalized recommendations for her outfit and makeup based on the weather, her schedule, and her personal preferences. She then walked to her autonomous school bus, which picked her up at her doorstep and drove her to school while she relaxed in the comfortable and futuristic interior.

When Ella arrived at school, she was greeted by friendly AI-powered robots that helped her find her way to her classroom and provided her with personalized recommendations for her daily schedule. Ella’s classroom was equipped with advanced AI algorithms that could personalize her learning experience based on her individual learning style and pace.

Throughout the day, Ella used advanced digital tools to enhance her learning experience, from VR simulations that allowed her to explore different parts of the world to interactive learning games that made learning fun and engaging. She also had access to advanced robotics and AI courses that allowed her to learn about cutting-edge technologies and prepare for the future of work.

When the school day was over, Ella’s autonomous school bus picked her up and drove her back home, where she could continue learning and exploring the world with the help of advanced digital tools and AI-powered assistants. For Ella, going to school in 2040 was fun and engaging and offered endless opportunities for personal growth and development.

Scenario 6 – John Checking into a Hotel in 2040

As John walked up to the sleek and modern building, he was greeted by a friendly robot concierge that welcomed him and checked him in using facial recognition technology.

The robot concierge provided John with a personalized digital key to his room, which would grant him access to his room and other areas of the hotel. As John made his way to the elevator, he was amazed by the advanced technology that surrounded him – from the digital displays that showed him personalized recommendations for local restaurants and attractions to the smart lighting and climate control systems that adjusted automatically to his preferences.

When John arrived at his room, he was greeted by an AI-powered virtual assistant that recognized him by name and asked him how his day was going. The virtual assistant provided John with a personalized tour of the room, showing him how to use the various smart devices and appliances that were controlled by voice commands or his smartphone.

Throughout his stay, John was impressed by the level of service and attention to detail provided by the hotel’s AI-powered systems. From personalized recommendations for local activities and restaurants to intelligent room service that could predict his food preferences and dietary restrictions, the AI hotel exceeded his expectations in every way.

Scenario 7 – Linda Working as an Architect in 2040

In 2040, Linda became an architect who leveraged advanced AI and VR technologies to create stunning and innovative designs. She used advanced computer programs that could simulate the physics and materials of her designs, allowing her to create accurate and realistic models before beginning construction.

Linda also used advanced VR tools that allowed her to create immersive 3D models of her designs, which her clients could explore and experience before any physical construction began. This helped her clients to visualize better and understand her designs, making the design process more collaborative and efficient.

Linda also leveraged advanced AI algorithms that could analyze the surrounding environment and optimize her designs for factors such as energy efficiency, sustainability, and accessibility. This allowed her to create designs that looked beautiful, functional, and environmentally friendly.

As Linda worked on her designs, she collaborated with a team of skilled AI and VR experts, who helped her to bring her visions to life. She constantly pushed the boundaries of what was possible with technology, and she became known as an architectural industry leader.
With the help of advanced AI and VR technologies, Linda had created some of the most stunning and innovative buildings and structures in the world.

Scenario 8 – David going through an Airport to Catch his Flight in 2040

In 2040, going through an airport had become a completely different experience with the help of advanced technology. David arrived at the airport and checked in his luggage with the help of an AI-powered robot that could scan and verify his identity using advanced facial recognition algorithms.

As he made his way through security, David used his biometric data to quickly pass through the checkpoints without the need for traditional security checks. The security system used advanced AI algorithms to detect any potential threats or risks, making the security process much more efficient and effective.

After passing through security, David walked through a duty-free store that was equipped with advanced augmented reality displays, providing him with personalized recommendations and offers based on his preferences and purchase history.

David then made his way to his gate, where he boarded a futuristic airplane that was equipped with advanced AI-powered systems. The airplane could adjust its altitude and speed to optimize its fuel consumption, making the flight more environmentally friendly and cost-effective.

During the flight, David used advanced in-flight entertainment systems that offered personalized recommendations based on his preferences, providing him with a truly immersive and enjoyable experience.

When the airplane landed, David used his biometric data to quickly pass through the customs and immigration checkpoints without the need for long queues or manual checks.

Closing Thoughts

The future is a fascinating and sometimes scary place, but it’s also full of possibilities and opportunities. The scenarios we explored today are just the tip of the iceberg; we can only imagine what else the future has in store for us. As we continue to push the boundaries of technology, we must also remember to approach these innovations with caution and mindfulness, always keeping in mind the potential risks and dangers. By doing so, we can ensure that the future is not only exciting but also safe and sustainable for generations to come.

As the global banking system experiences increasing turbulence, a growing number of influential individuals have begun asking crucial questions about 2040 and the future of the banking industry.

What will the landscape of banking look like in 2040? Will physical branches still be relevant? What will be the primary functions and services of banks? And, is there a future where banks may no longer be necessary?

What if Banks Disappeared?

The scenario of banks disappearing completely is highly unlikely, but let’s consider the possibility. If banks ceased to exist, how we handle financial transactions would change drastically. That said, there are some alternatives that could potentially replace the traditional banking system.

One possibility is a peer-to-peer (P2P) lending system. In this system, individuals or businesses could borrow money directly from other individuals, bypassing the need for a bank. This type of system already exists, with platforms like LendingClub and Prosper offering P2P lending services. The loans are typically unsecured and have higher interest rates than traditional bank loans. Still, they can be a viable option for those who do not qualify for traditional loans or who want to avoid the fees and bureaucracy associated with banks.

Another option is using digital currencies, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum. These currencies are decentralized, meaning any central authority, like a bank, does not control them. Transactions are verified through a public ledger called the blockchain, ensuring they are secure and transparent. Digital currencies are still relatively new and not widely accepted, but they can potentially revolutionize how we handle financial transactions.

Mobile payment systems could also play a role in the absence of banks. These systems, such as Apple Pay and Google Wallet, allowing users to pay using smartphones. They are convenient and easy to use but rely on traditional banks to process transactions.

Although it is highly unlikely that banks will cease to exist, there are alternative systems that could potentially replace them. These include P2P lending, digital currencies, and mobile payment systems. However, each of these systems has its own strengths and weaknesses, and it remains to be seen which will emerge as the dominant force in the future of financial transactions.

Strengthening the Role of Banks

While many people are trying to reduce our dependence on traditional banks, the banking industry itself is looking for ways to strengthen its role in society:

Increase transparency and accountability:

One of the main criticisms of the banking industry is its lack of transparency, which has led to mistrust among customers and the public. Banks can strengthen their societal role by being more transparent about their operations, fees, and practices. They can also increase accountability by implementing stronger regulations and penalties for unethical or illegal behavior.

Focus on social responsibility:

Banks can strengthen their role in society by being more socially responsible. This includes supporting community development initiatives, investing in sustainable projects, and promoting financial literacy.

Embrace technology:

The banking industry has been slow to embrace technology, but this is changing. Banks can strengthen their role in society by investing in innovative technologies that make banking more accessible, efficient, and secure. For example, mobile banking apps, online banking, and digital wallets can make banking more convenient for customers.

Improve customer experience:

Banks can strengthen their role in society by improving the customer experience. This includes offering personalized services, simplifying the account opening process, and providing better customer service.

Foster diversity and inclusion:

White men have historically dominated the banking industry, but this is changing. Banks can strengthen their role in society by fostering diversity and inclusion in their hiring practices and leadership teams.

The Impact of Cryptocurrencies?

Cryptocurrencies have had a notable impact on the banking system in various ways, and this influence is likely to continue and expand before 2040. Here are some key areas where cryptocurrencies have affected the banking sector and how they might continue to do so:

Digital payments and remittances:

Cryptocurrencies have introduced a new way of transferring value across borders with reduced fees and faster transaction times compared to traditional banking channels. Banks have started recognizing this potential and are exploring blockchain technology and digital currencies to improve their payment services. By 2040, banks could adopt or develop their own digital currencies to facilitate more efficient cross-border transactions.

Decentralized finance (DeFi):

DeFi platforms built on blockchain technology have provided an alternative to traditional banking services, including lending, borrowing, and earning interest. This has led some banks to explore partnerships with DeFi platforms or develop their own blockchain-based financial products. By 2040, banks may integrate DeFi solutions into their offerings, providing customers with more innovative and flexible financial services.

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs):

The rise of cryptocurrencies has prompted central banks to explore the development of CBDCs. These digital currencies have the potential to reshape the banking landscape by offering faster, cheaper, and more secure transactions. By 2040, CBDCs may become widely adopted, leading to significant changes in how banks operate and interact with central banks.

Enhanced security and transparency:

Blockchain technology, the foundation of cryptocurrencies, offers improved security and transparency compared to traditional banking systems. Banks have started to explore and adopt blockchain technology to improve their operations, from streamlining back-office processes to enhancing the security of transactions. By 2040, banks may widely adopt blockchain-based systems, resulting in a more secure and transparent banking infrastructure.

Regulatory changes:

The rise of cryptocurrencies has led to increased scrutiny and regulation from financial authorities worldwide. Banks have had to adapt to these changing regulatory requirements, which may impact their operations and risk management practices. By 2040, banks will likely need to continue adapting to new regulations concerning digital assets and blockchain technology.

Competition and innovation:

Cryptocurrencies and related technologies have introduced new competition for traditional banks, pushing them to innovate and adapt to stay relevant. As a result, banks have begun to explore new business models and technologies, such as digital wallets, robo-advisory services, and blockchain applications. By 2040, banks may operate in a more competitive and innovative landscape, focusing more on digital services and customer-centric solutions.

Financial inclusion:

Cryptocurrencies offer the potential to increase financial inclusion, providing access to financial services for unbanked and underbanked populations. Banks may choose to leverage digital currencies and blockchain technology to reach these underserved markets, expanding their customer base and promoting financial inclusion. By 2040, banks may be more significant in fostering financial inclusion through digital financial services.

By 2040, banks may need to adapt to a more digitized and competitive landscape, incorporating blockchain technology, digital currencies, and innovative financial solutions to serve their customers better and stay relevant in the evolving financial ecosystem.

The Rise of Digital Nomads

The rise of digital nomads will likely significantly impact the banking system in 2040. As more people work remotely and travel worldwide, they will likely require more flexible banking solutions to accommodate their lifestyles. This could include online banking services that are accessible from anywhere in the world, as well as mobile banking apps that allow digital nomads to manage their finances on the go.

In addition, digital nomads will likely require more flexible payment solutions to accommodate their global lifestyle. This could include digital currencies, such as Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, that can be used to make payments across borders without the need for traditional banking intermediaries. Additionally, digital nomads may rely on peer-to-peer payment platforms like PayPal or Venmo to send and receive money from other digital nomads worldwide.

When it comes to paying taxes, digital nomads are likely to face a number of challenges. Because they work remotely and travel frequently, they may not have a fixed tax residence, which can make it difficult to determine where they should pay taxes. In addition, they may be subject to tax laws in multiple countries, which can be complex and difficult to navigate.

To address these challenges, some governments are exploring new tax laws and regulations specifically designed for digital nomads. For example, some countries are considering the introduction of a “digital nomad visa” that would allow digital nomads to work and pay taxes in that country for a set period of time. Other countries are exploring new tax laws allowing digital nomads to pay taxes based on the number of days they spend in that country rather than their fixed tax residence.

Are CBDCs a Direct Competitor to Cryptocurrencies?

CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) and cryptocurrencies are not direct competitors as they have different purposes and characteristics. CBDCs are digital versions of fiat currencies that are issued by a central bank and regulated by government authorities with strict anti-money laundering rules in place. CBDCs are centralized, meaning that access and alteration of the blockchain are controlled by central entities and can only be used as a means of payment, with hoarding or investment activity is openly forbidden.

On the other hand, cryptocurrencies are decentralized digital assets hosted by a public and permissionless blockchain network that anyone can access. Cryptocurrencies can be used as payments or investments and can be transferred between users without the need for intermediaries.

Therefore, CBDCs and cryptocurrencies have different use cases and functionalities and can coexist without being direct competitors. However, the debate about CBDCs versus cryptocurrencies will likely become louder in the years ahead.

Final Thoughts

The future of banking in 2040 will vastly differ from what it is today, driven by factors such as evolving technologies, changing consumer behavior, and the growing influence of cryptocurrencies.

While the disappearance of banks altogether is highly unlikely, the industry must adapt and innovate to stay relevant in an increasingly digital and competitive landscape.

By 2040, banks may emphasize digital services, customer-centric solutions, and blockchain technology while promoting financial inclusion and integrating DeFi solutions into their offerings. Central bank digital currencies, cryptocurrencies, and peer-to-peer lending platforms are poised to play an increasingly significant role in the financial ecosystem, with the potential to reshape traditional banking operations.

As the financial landscape evolves, banks must continue to embrace new technologies, improve customer experiences, and foster diversity and inclusion, ensuring they remain an essential part of the global economy in 2040 and beyond.

For many supporters of cryptocurrencies, the key appeal lies in their ability to provide a currency and financial system that is open, borderless, decentralized, neutral, anonymous, immutable, and censorship-resistant.

Openness refers to the fact that cryptocurrencies are typically based on open-source software, which means that anyone can access and modify the code. This fosters a culture of transparency and collaboration and allows for rapid innovation and development in the industry.

Borderless refers to the fact that cryptocurrencies can be used to send and receive payments anywhere in the world without being subject to the restrictions and fees imposed by traditional financial systems. This makes them a powerful tool for people who need to make cross-border transactions or send money to countries with less developed financial systems.

Decentralization refers to the fact that any central authority or institution does not control cryptocurrencies. Instead, they are maintained by a distributed network of nodes that work together to validate transactions and secure the system. This helps to ensure that cryptocurrencies are not subject to the same risks and failures as traditional financial systems, and makes them more resistant to censorship and control by governments and other powerful institutions.

Neutrality refers to the fact that cryptocurrencies do not discriminate based on factors such as race, gender, or nationality. They are designed to be accessible to anyone with an internet connection and do not require users to have a bank account or other form of traditional identification.

Anonymity refers to the fact that cryptocurrencies can be used to make transactions without revealing the identity of the sender or recipient. While not all cryptocurrencies are completely anonymous, many offer a high degree of privacy and anonymity compared to traditional financial systems.

Immutability refers to the fact that once a transaction is recorded on the blockchain, it cannot be altered or deleted. This provides a high degree of security and transparency and makes it difficult for bad actors to manipulate or corrupt the system.

Censorship resistance refers to the fact that cryptocurrencies cannot be easily censored or shut down by governments or other institutions. This is because they are decentralized and distributed, which makes it difficult for any single entity to control or manipulate the system. This is particularly important in countries with authoritarian governments or restrictions on free speech and expression.

While these are the key attributes that have defined crypto, here are five key events that have driven the need for a decentralized system.

1. 2008 Financial Crisis

The aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis saw a growing distrust in traditional financial institutions and a desire for a more decentralized and transparent financial system. This desire was largely driven by individuals who were distrustful of the government and financial institutions, including a group of early adopters known as the “cypherpunks,” who were drawn to the potential of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Among these early adopters were the “libertarian quants,” individuals with a background in quantitative analysis who saw the potential for cryptocurrencies to disrupt traditional financial systems and provide an alternative to government-backed currencies. However, the introduction of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in 2010 brought new regulations to the financial industry, which some argue have made it more difficult for new banks to be formed and could limit competition and innovation in the financial sector.

The financial crisis of 2008, also known as the Great Recession, was a global economic downturn that led to widespread economic instability, job losses, and foreclosures. The crisis was triggered by a housing bubble and the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States, which spread to the global financial system.

When a system becomes too comfortable with itself, the seeds of its own destruction are sown

The financial crisis led to a loss of trust in traditional financial institutions, particularly banks and investment firms, due to their perceived role in causing the crisis. This loss of trust, coupled with the increasing centralization and control of the financial system, created a desire for a decentralized and transparent financial system that governments or large financial institutions did not control.

In 2009, an individual or group using the pseudonym “Satoshi Nakamoto” released a whitepaper outlining a decentralized digital currency called Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on blockchain technology, which allows for decentralized and transparent record-keeping of financial transactions.

The creation of Bitcoin was largely driven by the desire for a decentralized and transparent financial system that traditional financial institutions did not control. This desire was fueled by the financial crisis of 2008 and the loss of trust in traditional financial institutions.
The success of Bitcoin led to the creation of other cryptocurrencies, which further expanded the cryptocurrency industry. The cryptocurrency industry has grown rapidly in recent years, with a wide range of cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based applications being developed for a variety of purposes.

In the early days of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry, the majority of early adopters were a group of individuals with backgrounds in computer science, mathematics, and cryptography. This group was often referred to as “cypherpunks” and was largely made up of libertarian-leaning individuals who believed in personal freedom and privacy.

These early adopters were drawn to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies due to their decentralized nature and ability to operate outside of traditional financial institutions and government control. This was particularly appealing to those who were distrustful of the government and financial institutions and who believed in the importance of personal freedom and privacy.

2. The Rise of the Libertarian Quants

The libertarian quants were a subset of these early adopters who had a background in quantitative analysis, such as computer programming, mathematics, and finance. These individuals were often drawn to the potential for arbitrage and trading opportunities that existed in the new cryptocurrency market.

They were also attracted to the technical aspects of cryptocurrencies, such as the blockchain technology that underpins them. They saw the potential for blockchain technology to disrupt traditional financial systems and create a more decentralized and transparent financial system.

The libertarian quants were also interested in the potential for cryptocurrencies to provide an alternative to traditional government-backed currencies. They believed that cryptocurrencies could serve as a form of decentralized currency that was not subject to the whims of governments or central banks.

3. Dodd-Frank Act

The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) was signed into law in 2010 in response to the 2008 financial crisis, which was caused in part by risky behavior by large banks that were deemed “too big to fail.” The Act was intended to address some of the issues that contributed to the crisis by imposing new regulations on the financial industry and creating new oversight bodies.

One of the key provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act was the creation of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which is tasked with identifying and monitoring risks to the financial system. The Act also created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which is responsible for protecting consumers from abusive financial practices.

However, some critics of the Dodd-Frank Act argue that the regulations imposed by the law have made it much more difficult for new banks to be formed. The regulations are seen as particularly burdensome for smaller banks, which may not have the resources to comply with them.

According to Marc Andreessen, the number of new banks that have been started since Dodd-Frank is zero.

Early adopters, including the startup entrepreneurs who would have started their own bank, were instead drawn to the potential of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to disrupt traditional financial systems and provide an alternative to government-backed currencies.

While the Act was intended to address the issues that led to the financial crisis, it has also had unintended consequences, highlighting the complex nature of financial regulation and the challenges of balancing stability and innovation in the financial sector.

4. Silk Road

Silk Road was a harbinger of the cryptocurrency revolution, paving the way for a new era of anonymous and decentralized financial systems.

Founded by Dread Pirate Roberts — who would later be revealed as Ross Ulbricht — the promise of Silk Road was also essentially libertarian. The proposition was that anything could be traded, regardless of whether the state viewed it as legal.

Silk Road played a significant role in the emerging cryptocurrency industry, particularly in the early years of Bitcoin’s development. The platform was a dark web marketplace that facilitated the buying and selling of illegal drugs, fake IDs, and other illicit goods using Bitcoin as the primary form of payment.

For many people, Silk Road provided the first real use case for Bitcoin outside of traditional financial transactions. It demonstrated the potential for Bitcoin to be used for anonymous and untraceable transactions, which made it an attractive option for people engaged in illicit activities.

Silk Road also played a crucial role in the development of early Bitcoin communities. The platform was home to a vibrant community of users who shared information and tips on using Bitcoin and helped to drive the adoption of the cryptocurrency among a wider audience.

However, the closure of the Silk Road in 2013 was a significant turning point for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency industry. The seizure of the platform by the US government highlighted the risks and challenges associated with using Bitcoin for illegal activities. It also underscored the need for better security and custodial practices in the cryptocurrency industry, as many people lost significant amounts of Bitcoin that had been held in Silk Road’s escrow accounts.

Despite these challenges, Silk Road played an important role in the emergence of the cryptocurrency industry. It helped to establish Bitcoin as a viable alternative to traditional currency for anonymous transactions and helped to drive the adoption of the cryptocurrency among a wider audience.

5. Launching Ethereum

In 2015, Vitalik Buterin, a Canadian-Russian programmer, along with a team of cutting-edge crypto developers, launched Ethereum to help expand the capabilities of the emerging crypto industry.

Ethereum is a cryptocurrency that was designed to be more than just a digital currency. It is a decentralized platform that allows developers to build and deploy decentralized applications using smart contracts. Smart contracts are self-executing programs that run on the Ethereum blockchain and allow for creating complex applications that can automate many different types of transactions.

Ethereum reinforced the need for cryptocurrency in several ways. Firstly, it demonstrated the potential for blockchain technology to be used for more than just financial transactions. While Bitcoin was originally designed as a digital currency, Ethereum showed that blockchain could be used as a platform for building all kinds of decentralized applications, from supply chain management to voting systems.

Secondly, Ethereum helped to make cryptocurrency more accessible to non-technical users. The smart contract functionality of Ethereum made it possible for developers to build user-friendly applications that could be accessed and used by anyone with an internet connection.
Finally, Ethereum helped to promote the values of decentralization and transparency that are central to the cryptocurrency movement. By creating a platform that was free from centralized control and censorship, Ethereum demonstrated the potential for blockchain to create a more open and democratic world.

Final Thoughts

The emergence of cryptocurrencies has been driven by a desire for a more open, decentralized, and transparent financial system. The financial crisis of 2008, the rise of the libertarian quants, the introduction of the Dodd-Frank Act, the launch of Ethereum, and the closure of Silk Road were all significant events that cemented the need for cryptocurrencies.

While the cryptocurrency industry has faced numerous challenges and setbacks, it will continue to grow and evolve. As the industry continues to mature, it is likely to become an increasingly important part of the global financial system, offering new opportunities and challenges for businesses, governments, and individuals alike.

During the 1980s and 90s, I owned a couple of Baskin Robbins stores which were mostly cash businesses during that era. On its way to our commercial bank account, the cash got counted a minimum of seven times: during the customer transaction, at shift changes, at the end of the day, when preparing the deposit, when making the deposit, etc.

Cash is certainly not always “king,” and when you think about it, cash can seem downright archaic.

Cash is still hanging in there

Yes, cash may someday go away, and in fact, it’s already close in a few countries around the world, but there’s something to be said about cash being the only survivable form of money in the event of a disaster like a giant solar flare or WWIII.

By “cash,” I mean bills and coins – not checks or debit cards, even though they’re tied directly to cash accounts. Those, in fact, are cashless options.

In many situations, cash may still be the only option for a transaction at our favorite store. Small retailers often don’t want the hassle of accepting credit cards or paying merchant fees that accompany these transactions. Further, in a cashless society, it may be difficult to pay the neighborhood kids running their lemonade stand or throw in $10 at an impromptu pass-the-hat charity event?

Some consider society’s cashless goals to be elitist. Pre-pandemic, an estimated 7% of the U.S. population was “unbanked,” i.e., with no bank accounts and with cash as their only option for daily purchases. In addition, many people are under-banked without access to banking tools like credit cards or online payment apps.

Solutions to some of these challenges are pretty clear. In time, lemonade stand kids will utilize social media-based payment accounts. Crowdfunding apps like GoFundMe and others provide on-the-spot options to support a good cause when the impromptu giving spirit moves us. Stubborn retailers will lose out on business to the point where they’ll need to provide electronic payment options.

The challenge of the unbanked and underbanked population, though, will be the last one solved as we’ll see below.

COVID Propelled the Cashless Migration

We certainly took a huge step toward a “less-cash” system during the pandemic. In 2020 we were concerned about contact transmission of the virus from currency and coins or any surface for that matter. Much of our commerce shifted to online. Many people began making all of their in-store transactions, no matter how small, with credit or debit cards because it seemed like a safer option.

Cash transactions were still possible, but soon we started seeing posted signs at store checkouts requiring an exact change or stating it might not be possible for the cashier to provide exact change due to coinage shortages. Pocket change was stacking up in containers at home instead of being kept handy in a change purse or pocket.

If it weren’t for the desire to give well-deserved, cash-based service provider tips during this period, few of us would have carried or used any cash at all during much of 2020 and 2021.

What Will Replace Cash?

A good question to ask is, are we better off without cash? And why?

In 50 years, greenbacks and coinage may indeed be relics and collectors’ items.

Our purchases are certainly tending toward digital money – carried out in a number of forms. What each of our transactions will look like will depend on what’s in our electronic wallet (e.g., a bank account, a crypto account, or a line of credit in either of those denominations) and our preferred method of linking to our accounts (credit cards, debit cards, and online payment apps).

Cryptocurrency will be the e-currency behind an increasing number of these transactions. Crypto’s foundation in distributed ledger technology makes it extremely secure and private. As of now, we’re not quite at the point where we can pay for an ice cream cone with bitcoin, but cryptocurrency debit cards tied to a crypto account are showing great promise for e-commerce and to a growing extent for in-person retail purchases, at this time mostly for high-end items like jewelry, cars, electronics, and some services.

Crypto-based revolving lines of credit in the form of credit cards are also available and soon we’ll be at the point where the distinction between crypto- and fiat currency-based cards will be blurred and we’ll have the option to choose one or the other at the time of purchase.

Online payment apps and mobile device services, like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, and others, will flourish as well. These accounts (either crypto or fiat currency-based) will continue to be tied to an increasing variety of bank accounts and credit card accounts or linked directly to balances we maintain on those apps. Venmo even adds a social media element to the transactions: Spending money with friends is fun!

What About Checks?

Checks are one of the earliest forms of cashless transactions in modern times, but their use is rapidly declining. Fewer stores accept checks these days and even fewer Gen Z’ers even know how to write them … or have had to write them! Check fraud recently is way up as well. Most of us write only a handful of checks each year – for unique circumstances and not at all for day-to-day transactions.

Still, checks, or something with a similar look and feel, will always be an option for drawing on an account of any type. There will be significant fees attached to these transactions, though, given the extra steps involved in processing these payments.

Cashless Implications on Criminal Behavior

Cash, for all of its inherent inefficiencies, has the benefit of being an anonymous facilitator of commerce. Cash transactions leave no trail except maybe a fingerprint or serial number on a $50 bill. For that reason, going cashless will be bad for the business of crime. Digital footprints are almost always trackable with enough effort, especially when the user creates a vulnerability or is targeted for hacking.

Certain aspects of law enforcement will change dramatically. Rather than patrolling or seeking informants regarding drug trafficking, for example, cyber expert police officers will be safe at their computers uncovering and tracing now-discoverable money flows. “Following the money” to uncover the crime and catch the criminal will be the daily norm.

Learning from Sweden … and what I call the 100% Certainty Conundrum

Sweden is often held up as a groundbreaking nation when it comes to going cashless. Remarkably, only 1% of the country’s GDP is held in cash, compared to 8% in the U.S. Swedish retailers are allowed to refuse cash for purchases and the country is exploring developing an electronic version of their national currency (e-krona), which is a 1:1 equivalent of the cash version of their krona.

It’s important to know, that the e-krona isn’t a cryptocurrency and it’s not blockchain-based. Citizens can hold their e-krona on a card or in an app.

Recently, though, the seemingly inevitable shift to going completely cashless in Sweden is becoming significantly less inevitable. Like any kind of “all-or-nothing” technology transition, utopia inevitably meets reality, in this case, the unbanked and underbanked, who make up the last few percent of users.

The 100% Certainty Conundrum creates gates to the future in a number of ways. We see it, for example, in the “need” for 100% safety when it comes to self-driving car technology. We may be 99% there, but the technology won’t be fully embraced until that elusive 1% is accounted for (even though human-driver safety rates will never achieve that 100% standard).

In the case of Sweden’s and any other country’s cashless utopia, it won’t happen until we can achieve 100% usability and acceptance of a combination of e-currency and other cashless options. The issue of the unbanked and underbanked, the last 1-2% of the population, must be solved before any government will dare enforce a cash-free system of national commerce.

Keep in mind, that solving the equation for the final 1% becomes exponentially more difficult as we approach zero.

And the onus for a cashless economic system is truly on the government. In the U.S., some small retailers have gotten too far out ahead of the curve on going cash-free and ended up having to reverse course in the face of disgruntled customers and lost sales. Some states and major cities, in fact, have passed laws prohibiting businesses from operating cash-free, citing the concerns of unbanked and underbanked citizens.

For those people who don’t trust banks, and that becomes a much greater percentage during a recession, having cash stocked away in a secret place at home, is a comforting form of security.

For now, that means that in Sweden, Norway, Finland, and other countries, the best we can hope for is going mostly cash-free.

Does that mean we’ll never go completely cash-free? Perhaps! Progress comes in fits, starts, and occasional backward steps. If nothing else, progress is virtually always messy.

“These are the times that try men’s souls!” Over the past few days, I’ve heard several people use this Thomas Paine quote!

A crash in cryptocurrency prices has wiped away countless billions in value over the past few days as the price of Bitcoin plunged to its lowest point since 2020. While the crypto markets had been experiencing considerable volatility over the past few months, it all came to a head this week, all triggered by the crash of the Terra stablecoin, and the cryptocurrency, Luna, that it is linked to. Terra failed to maintain its dollar peg which, in turn, triggered a collapse in Luna’s price, causing the entire crypto ecosystem to take a nosedive.

Rest assured, cryptocurrencies are not going away, but this market readjustment is causing people to reevaluate why they’re important, and part of this rethinking involves the strategies behind their mainnets.

What is a Mainnet?

Every cryptocurrency needs a blockchain network in order to function … but not all cryptocurrencies have their own blockchains.

Digital currencies that maintain their own unique blockchain network, referred to as a mainnet, are more likely to be the ones that last into the future, providing unique value and service.

Why is a Dedicated Mainnet Important for a Cryptocurrency?

Many factors can help determine whether a cryptocurrency might be valuable and worthwhile in the long run. Visibility, wallet accessibility, acceptance, market cap, circulating supply, community size, team experience, and the management team’s commitment to making ongoing upgrades or revisions are all important things to consider when looking at the ongoing viability of a cryptocurrency.

And so is the uniqueness of the coin – the protocols, tokenomics, and business strategy behind it that make the transactions faster and less costly and that provide special functionality. Related to this is the blockchain’s reliability and security.

These features are best proven in the context of a rigorous testing environment. The gold standard for this is the testing that happens in a safe “testnet” setting within another existing mainnet.

Governing Structures for Mainnets

Since Mainnets operate outside the boundary of a single country, and outside the purview of any existing authority, it has become customary to establish a non-profit Foundation as the governing entity to both help develop strategies and manage the inner workings of the Mainnet.

Since blockchains are a relatively new technology, we still haven’t seen the full extent of their capabilities, and these capabilities will continue to grow as we incorporate more tools, precision, scalability, and extensibility into the mainnets.

The Birth and Emergence of New Utility Tokens

At any given time, there are over 20,000 developers working on cryptocurrency platforms.

Most new cryptocurrencies are developed on top of another existing mainnet, in a safe “testnet” environment. The testnet development is walled off from the active functions running on that mainnet by use of a unique genesis block – the first block on the testnet’s blockchain – to avoid disruptions or worse of that mainnet if issues occur during this testing phase. Testnets are commonly used for new blockchain testing as well as smart contracts, NFTs, DAOs, DeFi, DEXs, dApps, and other features.

In the case of blockchain development, developers typically choose a mainnet “host” for their testnet activity that’s similar in function and design to its own project. Mainnets like Ethereum and Polkadot are the most popular networks for testnet activity, while Terra, Solana, and NEAR have shown the most recent growth in that area.

As developers evaluate and refine the features and functions of their testnets, they use fake crypto coinage with no value to simulate transactions.

When testing is complete, and the testnet’s features have proved to live up to the functionality promised in the developer’s white paper, the project team can transition their testnet platform and launch its own mainnet, often with published code.

Its status as a mainnet provides an added level of proof that the blockchain project is functional and ready for participation. As time goes on, developer teams will continue to refine their mainnet, an indication of a vibrant and possibly more future-proof cryptocurrency.

Implications for Quality and Longevity

This testnet-to-mainnet process is thorough, but investors who get involved early in a cryptocurrency blockchain development often do so at greater risk. Functionality promises found in a white paper can seem exciting and groundbreaking, but until the blockchain successfully emerges from the “sandbox” testing environment, nothing is certain.

However, once their mainnets are released at the conclusion of this testing process, developers are essentially stating that now their blockchain can be trusted – they’ve tested it in realistic conditions and refined it within that space before releasing it.

The Maturing of the Crypto Industry

As I stated earlier, cryptocurrency is the logical next stage of development for currency and mediums of exchange around the world.

Because crypto represents the privatization of currency, it will often struggle to compete with traditional government-backed currencies used in everyday kinds of commerce – there is no FDIC, no safety nets, and no Federal Reserve Bank to plug the leaks. So no, it’s not easy to transition a nation’s economy from a national currency to a cryptocurrency, and having a few hiccups along the way should naturally be expected.

At the heart of this revolution are the mainnet’s blockchain engines that are forging new inroads into business and industry. Thought leaders are beginning to realize that blockchains cannot succeed over the long run simply by imitating others.

For this reason, it’s the operation of mainnets that’s separating the crypto-men from the crypto-boys.

And if worse comes worse, and by some stretch of the imagination the entire crypto industry were to collapse, it would collapse forward. Just as the dot com world survived the brutal Y2K implosion of 2000, the crypto implosion of 2022 could become the launching pad for our golden future over the years ahead.

A few days ago, I was listening to episode 597 of the Bad Crypto Podcast and it was rather insightful listening to how Joel Comm and his co-host Travis Wright randomly picked cryptocurrencies from listings on CoinGecko and evaluated them on the spot using a variety of techniques and standards.

With just a cursory glance at key data points, they assessed the cryptocurrency’s market cap, years in business, professionalism of the website, underlying business model, blockchain capabilities, leadership team, major engagers, and historic fluctuation. It’s a lot of data, and once combined, can tell a pretty good story about the coin’s past and future.

The last I checked there were 13,660 different coins listed on CoinGecko, and from a newbie’s perspective it’s incredibly challenging to weed through the hype and make sense out of everything that’s taking place.

Before I continue, let me make it clear; nothing in this article is to be taken as financial advice. I am simply stating my observations and experiences. Past performance is not a guarantee of future return, nor is it indicative of future performance. Investing involves risk and the investment will fluctuate over time, and you may gain or lose money. As with all financial decisions, you should consult a licensed professional.

What’s Different About Crypto?

Cryptocurrency is the next evolution of currency and mediums of exchange in our world. We’ve already progressed from barter systems to tradeable certificates of value, to printed notes, to currency that’s based on the full faith and credit of governments, and to electronic manifestations of these notes and currencies.

What’s different about cryptocurrencies of course is they represent the privatization of currency, and thus they often struggle to compete with traditional government-backed currency in the everyday kinds of commerce. It’s not easy to transition a global or even a nation-state’s economy and commerce from a traditional national or regional currency to cryptocurrency, which has been very apparent in El Salvador.

That’s why cryptocurrencies still only fill a relatively tiny niche. But still only being a tiny niche is because of many more things than just that. They are still too geeky, too complicated, too hackable, too confusing, and too risky for the average person on the street. In short, they’re not user-friendly.

From a usability standpoint, cash is easy to understand. The denominations are clearly printed on the bills, it’s widely accepted, you don’t need a device like a phone or a computer to work with it, and even a third-grader can understand the basic elements of a transaction. But the crypto universe has a long way to go to make its coins and tokens as stupidly simple as cash.

For example, most first-time users have conventional payment systems in mind when making a transaction, similar to online banking. They instantly assume transactions have fixed fees, are reversible, and can easily be canceled, none of which are true in reality.

Most are confused about the terminology and the fundamental building blocks of crypto, including blockchain, public-key cryptography, recovery mechanisms, how to perform a transaction, and even the role of a wallet.

So far, crypto has managed to carve out a niche as an alternative investment asset. They can also be used for metaverse-based commerce (e.g., for NFTs), smart contracts, and DeFi engagement. Some retailers in the physical world are willing to accept them, but usually, as a way to enhance their brand or to entice a specific customer demographic. Outside of the metaverse, our economies still need both options.

Why So Many?

We’re still in the early days of cryptocurrency, and there’s a lot of weeding out that will happen. Cryptocurrencies are plentiful because they’re new, trendy, easy to create, and relatively unregulated – especially at the global level.

It’s also important to note that there are many different categories or types of cryptocurrencies.

For example, some are intended to serve as a global currency for mainstream transactions and investments. Within that category, we also have stablecoins, cryptocurrencies that are tied to a fixed asset (like a national currency or a commodity), which theoretically protects them and their holders from extreme price fluctuations.

Other cryptocurrencies are “project tokens” tied to specific DeFi platforms to provide ownership stakes and as a tool for governance within those spaces.

Still, others are considered “meme coins,” designed and marketed as trendy, serving primarily as speculative investments.

Moving forward, all of these types of cryptocurrencies will continue to be offered, but many individual ones will fail, putting a damper on the impulse to start new ones.

How to Choose

Here are some of the common approaches people will use to evaluate a cryptocurrency, regardless of the category:

1. Check the market listing and review data points such as Project Ranking, Market Cap, Price History, Trading Volume, Liquidity, Circulation Supply, Total Supply, Today’s Price.
2. Visit the Website for information about who’s on the Team (founders, executives, developers, partners, advisors), Roadmap, Vision, Investors, and Tokenomics.
3. Assess the cryptocurrency’s White Paper and review its information related to Objectives, Details on open-source code, Target Demographic, Roadmap, Tokenomics, and Distribution Scheme.
4. Review the cryptocurrency’s social media profiles and commentary (especially on Twitter, Telegram, Reddit, and LinkedIn) to get a feel for the experience.
5. Understand the utility and use case.
6. Check for scam alerts.
7. Assess the competing cryptocurrencies in that space.

Learning from History

In fact, roughly 1,000 cryptocurrencies have failed or were ended by their owners, including OneCoin, BitConnect, GetGems, SpaceBIT, and The DAO.

Why did they fail? Some were publicity stunts. Others were the victim of unregulated, Wild West markets at their worst, with massive fluctuations that caused investors to lose confidence. Others were mismanaged, and still, others were done in by hacker thieves. 

The breathtaking fluctuations in the significant global cryptocurrencies seem to be getting more under control and are less concerning to investors. But some experts say that a broader economic crash, possibly due to geopolitical events, could bring many more of them down. At this time, 75 cryptocurrencies are worth more than $1 billion.

How Many Cryptocurrencies Do We Need? 

In the future, we’ll need as many types of cryptocurrencies as it takes to satisfy all the purposes for cryptocurrencies, and we’re still a long way from all of the potential uses. For example, some cryptos may carve out a unique niche for specialty insurance, financing land on Mars, or funding eldercare, medical tourism, childcare, or barter networks.

Additionally, we should expect limited-time business-specific cryptos to fund startups during their initial growth phases.

We will also see a number of cryptocurrencies that will both complement and replace national currencies. These will be designed to support specific geographical constituencies. 

Token-based cryptocurrencies will continue to be developed to match metaverse and other DeFi experiences, the number of which will naturally consolidate over time reflecting normal market forces. 

There will always be room for meme-type, hyper-speculative cryptocurrencies offered in an appropriately regulated environment.

To the extent that stablecoins are tied to a national hard currency, they’ll be offered primarily as investment options. Those that are based on a global commodity, for example, gold or possibly a globally accepted national currency like the Euro or U.S. Dollar, might serve as a (not “the”) global currency.

And in the last category, the truly global cryptocurrencies are used for investment and for international commerce. In all likelihood, we’ll see just 3-4 win out in the end. 

Keep in mind, that today’s use of widely accepted credit cards emerged in the 1950s, and today consumers and market forces have caused us to settle on just a handful of companies – Visa, Mastercard, Discover, AmEx, etc. The same will happen with global transactional cryptocurrency options. The strongest global cryptocurrencies will squeeze out the rest as merchants choose which ones to accept.

Lately Bitcoin and the blockchain have been occupying more and more of my attention and I recently found myself watching Andreas Antonopoulos’s excellent talk “Introduction to Bitcoin: what is bitcoin and why does it matter?”.

It does such a terrific job of encapsulating Bitcoin’s transformative potential and I wanted to translate this into some likely futurist scenarios in the years ahead.

Andreas has become a world-famous advocate of Bitcoin-related technologies, and he’s published five books on the subject, but it took time for him to become convinced enough to turn his obsession and advocacy into his vocation.

His experience followed a now-familiar two-part process. First, he dismissed Bitcoin as “nerd money” for gamblers and drug dealers. Then he grasped its potential and became completely obsessed with it.

What makes Bitcoin so captivating? It’s much, much more than what it appears to be.

Bitcoin is not a traditional currency, or a company, or a product. Rather, it’s a platform of trust.

All forms of currency are based on trust. Not just those that are commonly referred to as fiat money, which means “trust,” but absolutely every form of currency is based on some level of trust.

Phrased more philosophically, Bitcoin is the concept of decentralization applied to the exchange of value.

To get our minds wrapped around this idea, it helps to take a step back and ask, “what is money?”

What is money?

A common economic definition of money is “any good or asset that is accepted on one side of every exchange”.

If I’m buying something, the seller will almost always accept money. And if I’m selling something, I will almost always accept money.

This characteristic of money means that simply possessing it lets you purchase a near-infinite variety of goods, services, and experiences.

Money itself typically isn’t valuable, though commodity money like gold might have industrial uses. But since money is tradable for things that are worthwhile, such as the goods or services we actually want to purchase, it opens up whole new opportunities for specialization, trade, and mutual profit.

If you don’t find this point fully convincing, consult the first few chapters of any introductory economic textbook. Economics 101 almost always has a setting-the-stage section talking about all the ways in which money is superior to barter.

For most people it’s difficult to grasp all the nuances of money because it’s one of the oldest technologies in existence, so deeply embedded in our lives that we take it for granted.

However, today’s monetary systems are old and tired, with so many patches in place that even the patches have patches.

Why is decentralized money potentially revolutionary?

Over its long history, the human race has had to struggle through five major paradigm shifts in money:

1. The emergence of barter
2. The first abstractions of value (e.g., shells and beads)
3. The move to metallic monies, like gold and silver
4. The move to paper fiat money
5. The move to plastic money (e.g., credit cards)

Andreas maintains that the 6th revolution in money started with the introduction of #Bitcoin and the creation of the first network money.

Like the Internet, the Bitcoin blockchain is completely decentralized and allows for currency to run as an application.

Approaching it from another perspective, Bitcoin isn’t “money for the Internet,” it’s the “Internet of money.”

This line of thinking is more than a clever soundbite; it’s a profound truth that gets at the heart of why so many people are excited about this space.

What the decentralized properties of the Internet made possible for communication, the decentralized properties of the blockchain make possible for money.

Bitcoin has emerged as the first open, global currency not beholden to any nation state, institution, or central authority.

It is also programmable. Anyone can write applications on top of it and launch them, without asking permission from gatekeepers.

Why do decentralization and programmability matter?

Decentralization and programmability are the same attributes or characteristics that have made the open-source movement so exponentially innovative. From out of the late-night musings and buzzing of programmers that contributed to the confusion of that community have emerged staggering examples of emergent order that has irrevocably changed the world, almost always for the better.

Tons of software, including most of the code powering your computer, your access to the Internet, and even the pixels displaying on your screen right now, was written by decentralized open-source communities.

And now, there’s a monetary system that can be used and modified in the same way.

Putting it all together, we have:

1. An ancient technology (money) that forms part of the core stack that civilization is running on.
2. The first protocol which allows for experimenting with that technology at the scale and speed of open-source software.

From this vantage point, you don’t need much imagination to see the potential.

What’s the future of Bitcoin?

Of course, we’re still in the very early days of the blockchain and trying to predict where it’ll be in fifty years is like trying to foresee the emergence of Amazon from the crude Internet of 1975.

Still, there are indications, and as the co-host of the Futurati Podcast noted, we are being exposed to a variety of insightful glimpses of what’s in the pipeline.

The decentralized, anonymized nature of the major cryptocurrencies will prevail.

Many people, especially in the older generation, will remain confused by cryptocurrency. They’ll stick to national currencies, giving traditional banking a bit of staying power. Increasingly, though, these people will miss out on investment opportunities and efficient financial services.

It may become harder and harder for them to find retailers that accept their dollar-based credit cards without adding a surcharge.

At the same time, cryptocurrencies are seen as “geeky,” and it will take a serious upgrade to their user interfaces for them to reach mass adoption.

Speaking with noted crypto-evangelist Joel Comm, he helped us understand the possibilities of using non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to store documents like property deeds and driver’s licenses. This could substantially reduce the red tape involved in many routine activities while reducing the likelihood of fraud and legal disputes.

Corey Hoffstein, of Newfound Research, talked to us about the burgeoning market for NFTs and the challenges of applying traditional financial concepts to the crypto asset ecosystem.

And of course, famed Bitcoin podcaster Peter McCormack had a lot to say about the double spending problem, Bitcoin versus gold, and Bitcoin versus every other major cryptocurrency.

There are going to be a number of monumental new experiments with this technology, and I’m thrilled to be here to see them happen.

We’re seeing a lot of predictions about the future of cryptocurrency, but most of them have to do with their price, finding ways to mine them using less energy, and the possibility of taxing and regulating various types of cryptocurrency transactions.

All the while, most people are on the sidelines, still in the dark about the nature of cryptocurrency and the mechanics of blockchain technology that make it possible. They may be assuming they’ll never have to really grasp these concepts because they believe and even hope that cryptocurrencies won’t last, that they’ll fail under the weight of all this confusion and instability. These doubters are sadly mistaken.

A big source of their confusion no doubt is that the terms and concepts of “blockchain” and “cryptocurrency” are often and mistakenly used interchangeably. It’s important to understand that blockchain is the enabler for the formation of secure digital currencies, but it’s also a technology that can be built upon and used to underpin other secure financial transactions like purchases and loans.

What is currency?

According to Economics 101, a currency must serve two functions: to store value and serve as a medium of exchange. With regard to cryptocurrency, that first standard has been proven. Granted, cryptocurrencies can fluctuate dramatically in value based on a number of factors, but you can buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrency. They have a market-based value.

The concept of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange has been slower to develop. In the last year, though, we’ve seen a tipping point in that regard. More and more companies and institutions are accepting cryptocurrency for purchases and financial transactions.

That’s due in part to the fact that financial institutions are enabling customers to make crypto-based transactions without necessarily having to master all the details – like maintaining crypto wallets and managing Bitcoin keys. As one astute analyst describes, it’s the difference between BlockFi (financial transactions that are based on blockchain but that are centralized and managed) and DeFi, or decentralized finance (financial services and transactions that are analogous to the currently unregulated and more anonymized cryptofinance we all think of).

The Normalization of Cryptocurrency

I see DeFi and BlockFi as the mainstreaming of cryptocurrency/blockchain-based transactions. Average people don’t have to necessarily understand things like cryptocurrency mining or blockchain ledgers to participate and benefit.

And along with this mainstreaming, we’re on the verge of at least partially transitioning from fiat currency (which is backed by a trust in governing entities) to cryptocurrency (which is backed by the trust in security and trust in blockchain technology).

Just like the credit card industry has settled into a handful of dominant companies (Visa, Master Card, etc.), the market will end up supporting a limited number of cryptocurrencies that reach mainstream status (Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum, etc.).

Blockchain will be normalized in similar ways. Currently the technology is powering secure financial products like savings accounts and loans outside of the traditional financial world. But traditional institutions like banks and savings & loans will increasingly embrace blockchain as the underpinning of their own processes as well.

Digital Dollar

What about the idea of government-backed, blockchain secured, digitized currencies, known as central bank digital currency or stablecoin? We’ll still see a “crypto dollar,” a digital, blockchain-enabled dollar that’s tied in some way to the U.S. dollar. But given that stablecoins are still subject to a relatively larger amount of central bank control, they’ll ultimately lose out in day-to-day transactions and personal financial services to the non-government-endorsed cryptocurrencies.

The decentralized, anonymized nature of the major cryptocurrencies will prevail.

Here’s how I see the relationship between consumers, blockchain, cryptocurrencies, and financial institutions like banks play out over the next 15 years.

1. Many people, especially in the older generation, will remain confused by cryptocurrency. They’ll stick to national currencies, giving traditional banking a bit of staying power. Increasingly, though, these people will miss out on investment opportunities and efficient financial services. It may become harder and harder for them to find retailers that accept their dollar-based credit cards without adding a surcharge.
2. Within 3-5 years, most major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, and Costco will begin directly accepting cryptocurrencies as payment. When these “Big Four” and others take that step, there will be no turning back on cryptocurrency.
3. Within 3-5 years, mainstream banks will offer a number of cryptocurrency services, including exchanges, savings accounts, and payment accounts. They’ll structure these as much as possible to make the “new” feel like the comfortable “old” currency systems.
4. By 2030, major credit cards like Visa and Mastercard will fully support and back multiple crypto currencies. Visa has already taken major steps in this direction.
5. By 2030, most banks will be working with both digitized fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies.
6. By 2030, blockchain-based credit approval processes will make traditional credit bureaus irrelevant.
7. By 2030, most banks will offer the option of cryptocurrency loans for houses, cars, and other purchases. For people trying to buy a home with either a crypto or traditional loan, whichever one comes through the quickest, offering the best deal, will win. By their nature, crypto will prevail in those scenarios.
8. By 2030, the majority of home sales will use blockchain technology to secure titles.
9. By 2030, the majority of all loans worldwide will use blockchain technology to secure transactions.
10. By 2030-2035, 25% of banks in business today will fail or be absorbed. The losers will be the ones that resist crypto-banking and other blockchain-based transactions.
11. By 2035, 25% of national central banks around the world will fail. Regional economic blocs will form around some of the surviving stablecoin currencies.
12. By 2035, banks will earn the majority of their income from cryptocurrency and blockchain-based services.
13. By 2035, 25% of all money lent to individuals will be cryptocurrency loans.
14. By 2035, one cryptocurrency (likely Bitcoin) will emerge as the world’s first global currency, supplanting the U.S. Dollar – even in its digital, stablecoin form – as the default currency for international trades and purchases.
15. By 2035, most cryptocurrencies will fade away. Less than 10 dominant cryptocurrencies will remain, even though there will be hundreds, if not thousands, of special use.
16. Because of the alternative playing field on which cryptocurrencies operate, by 2035, most countries will transition away from a national income-tax to a national sales-tax or some alternate taxation scheme as the primary form of taxation.

Naturally, any number of issues could arise that may derail these predictions, but from my vantage point, the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies will prevail.

Plan accordingly.