It would seem we’re creating a more fragile world that feels closer to “not-war” than true peace.

Introduction: Revisiting the Nature of War in 2024

In 2008, I explored the shifting nature of war and peace, predicting that battles would one day extend beyond borders and physical battlefields. At the time, the conversation centered on traditional conflicts, but the seeds of a new kind of warfare were already being sown. Fast forward to 2024, and the world has changed dramatically. Wars in Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza have shown us that while battles still rage with boots on the ground, their nature has evolved. Emerging technologies have given rise to non-traditional conflicts—cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, and proxy wars—where the lines between combatants, civilians, and nations blur.

Today, war is no longer just about territorial conquest or armies clashing in open fields. It is about shaping perceptions, crippling infrastructure, and fighting battles that most people cannot see. At the same time, peace remains as elusive as ever. When the gunfire stops, hostilities rarely end. The scars of war—emotional, social, and economic—persist long after treaties are signed, creating a fragile world that feels closer to “not-war” than true peace.

The reality we face is unsettling: ”The opposite of war is not peace—it’s a new, unfamiliar ‘not-war,’ a place where tensions brew, and battles look nothing like we imagined.” To understand the wars of today, we must first confront the complex realities of modern conflicts, where technology, propaganda, and invisible battlefields have replaced the wars of the past.

Conflicts are no longer just fought with weapons—they are fought with ideas, perceptions, and deepfake videos.

Section 1: The Complex Realities of Modern War

The wars of today are more complex, more indirect, and often invisible to the public eye. Traditional battlefronts have given way to proxy conflicts, cyber warfare, and information manipulation, leaving nations to fight battles that are harder to identify, contain, or resolve.

Proxy wars have become one of the defining features of modern conflict. In wars like those in Ukraine and Syria, the battles are not just fought between two nations but also shaped by external powers pulling strings from behind the scenes. Countries supply weapons, funding, and mercenaries to advance their geopolitical agendas while avoiding direct involvement. Proxy wars allow powerful nations to escalate conflicts without risking their own soldiers’ lives, turning smaller nations into battlegrounds for larger rivalries.

At the same time, cyber warfare has emerged as a silent but devastating weapon. State-sponsored cyberattacks, often orchestrated by countries like Russia, China, or North Korea, target critical infrastructure, financial systems, and government networks. A single well-coordinated cyberattack can cripple an entire nation without a single shot fired—shutting down power grids, hacking banks, and manipulating elections. Cyberwarfare is invisible, making it particularly dangerous because its effects are not always immediately visible, yet its reach is global.

Adding to the complexity are information wars, where public narratives become the new battlefields. Advances in AI-generated propaganda, deepfake technology, and the weaponization of social media have made it easier than ever to spread misinformation and manipulate public opinion. Conflicts are no longer just fought with weapons—they are fought with ideas, perceptions, and false realities. For example, during active conflicts, deepfake videos and AI-powered tools can spread fabricated stories that confuse and divide populations, creating chaos and distrust.

The key point is this: traditional wars with clear frontlines are disappearing. In their place, we face a world of dispersed conflicts, where battles occur in cyberspace, media channels, and human perceptions. These wars are harder to see, harder to fight, and harder to end. In this new reality, the tools of war are as subtle as they are devastating, reshaping our understanding of conflict and power.

Section 2: The Changing Weapons of Power and Destruction

The tools of modern warfare are evolving at an unprecedented pace. As technology advances, the weapons of power and destruction are shifting away from traditional military arsenals to innovative tools that are far more precise, devastating, and accessible.

New technologies such as drones, autonomous robots, and AI-guided missiles are redefining how wars are fought. No longer limited to nations with vast military budgets, these tools are now widely available, allowing even smaller actors to exert influence on the battlefield. The ongoing war in Ukraine highlights this shift, where low-cost drones have become critical tools in modern military strategy. Armed with cameras, explosives, and advanced tracking systems, drones offer a combination of affordability, precision, and high impact, enabling even small forces to inflict significant damage.

The rise of biological and nano weapons presents another chilling possibility. Engineered viruses, bio-agents, and nanoscale weapons have the potential to target individuals, populations, or even entire food and water systems with terrifying precision. Unlike conventional weapons, these tools leave little trace and can be deployed silently, making them far harder to detect or defend against. A single engineered pathogen released into a population could cripple nations in days, illustrating how the next major conflict could be fought not on a battlefield but within bodies and ecosystems.

Perhaps most alarming is the growing empowerment of individual disruptors. Technologies like advanced hacking tools, small-scale drones, and even 3D-printed weapons have decentralized the tools of power, placing them in the hands of lone actors. A single hacker can paralyze a nation’s digital infrastructure, crashing financial systems, shutting down energy grids, or leaking classified intelligence. Similarly, a lone drone operator or 3D-printing enthusiast can create weapons capable of targeting critical infrastructure or disrupting everyday life. Warfare is no longer the exclusive domain of states—it now belongs to anyone with access to technology.

The key takeaway is this: the tools of war have become decentralized. Traditional national armies are increasingly giving way to technology-driven actors and empowered individuals. In this new landscape, the potential for conflict is no longer limited to organized battles but extends to rogue agents and invisible threats, fundamentally reshaping how wars begin, escalate, and impact the world.

Power is increasingly becoming fragmented across corporations, non-state actors, and economic alliances.

Section 3: The Opposite of War and the Illusion of Peace

War does not truly end when the guns fall silent. While treaties and ceasefires may halt the fighting, they rarely resolve the deep fractures left behind. The scars of war—social, economic, emotional, and generational—persist long after conflicts are declared “over,” leaving societies fragile, divided, and vulnerable to future tensions.

In many regions, what follows a war is not peace but a “not-war zone”—a place where active fighting pauses, yet hostilities and unresolved grievances continue to simmer beneath the surface. These fragile states are seen in regions like post-war Syria, where infrastructure remains in ruins and millions remain displaced. Similarly, frozen conflicts such as Nagorno-Karabakh demonstrate how unresolved territorial disputes can linger for decades, erupting into violence when circumstances shift. In places like Gaza, ceasefires provide temporary calm, but they fail to address the underlying grievances that perpetuate cycles of conflict. These “not-war zones” stand as stark reminders that halting violence is only the first step in achieving lasting peace.

The real challenge lies in addressing the root causes of war—issues such as inequality, territorial disputes, ethnic divides, and technological competition. Without meaningful resolution, conflicts are simply paused, ready to mutate into new forms. What we once understood as conventional wars now often transform into cyber conflicts, economic sanctions, or ideological battles that never fully resolve.

This brings us to a critical question: Are we moving toward longer, quieter wars? Modern conflicts may lack the visible carnage of traditional wars, but their impacts are no less profound. Cyberattacks can cripple economies, propaganda can fracture societies, and sanctions can strangle nations—all without a single bullet being fired. These low-grade struggles may persist for years, festering in the background, eroding stability, and preventing true peace from taking hold.

True peace is more than an absence of fighting—it is a state of resolution, understanding, and stability. Yet, as conflicts evolve into more complex and less visible forms, achieving that peace has become more elusive than ever. Without addressing the root causes of war, we risk living in a perpetual state of “not-war,” where tensions remain unresolved, and humanity lurches from one conflict to the next.

Section 4: The Future of Power in a Fractured World

The structures of power in today’s world are evolving rapidly, no longer confined to traditional nation-states. Instead, power is increasingly fragmented across corporations, non-state actors, and economic alliances, creating a complex and multipolar landscape that makes conflicts harder to resolve.

Corporate power has become one of the most significant forces in the modern world. Tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Palantir wield influence comparable to sovereign nations. They control vast amounts of data, dominate artificial intelligence development, and own critical digital infrastructure that governments, businesses, and individuals depend on daily. During times of conflict, corporations can sway outcomes—whether by controlling access to cloud infrastructure, leveraging AI to analyze real-time threats, or influencing public opinion through digital platforms. Their reach transcends borders, leaving nations to compete for alignment and cooperation with these emerging power players.

Meanwhile, non-state actors like cybercriminal groups, rogue hackers, and ideological militias have gained unprecedented leverage. These groups often operate beyond traditional political controls, exploiting cyberspace to disrupt economies, manipulate narratives, or inflict real-world damage. For example, cyber groups like Lazarus (North Korea-affiliated) have targeted global financial systems, while ideological militias use encrypted platforms to mobilize followers and wage asymmetric battles. The decentralized nature of these actors makes them hard to detect and even harder to control.

Economic alliances are also playing an increasingly dominant role. Groups like OPEC or emerging trade blocs wield influence over global policies by dictating access to critical resources and controlling economic leverage. Nations competing for dominance in these alliances often find themselves locked in economic rivalries that blur the line between cooperation and conflict. Trade sanctions, tariffs, and resource control have become modern weapons, shaping geopolitics without the need for military engagement.

The key point is this: Power has fragmented across new entities, shifting away from nation-states and into the hands of corporations, rogue actors, and economic coalitions. This fractured landscape complicates conflict resolution as multiple players—each with unique interests—compete for influence. In a multipolar world, the ability to contain or resolve disputes grows increasingly elusive, leaving global stability in a fragile state.

Can global leaders adapt to this new reality of distributed, technology-driven conflicts, or will these tools spiral beyond human control?

Section 5: The New Faces of War and Conflict

The wars of today no longer resemble the conventional battles of the past. Instead, we are witnessing the rise of non-wars—conflicts that are less visible yet equally destructive, driven by technology, economics, and artificial intelligence. These new faces of war redefine how power is wielded, nations are disrupted, and societies are destabilized.

Cyber wars are at the forefront of modern conflict, with nations and non-state actors alike leveraging digital attacks to cripple essential systems. A well-executed cyberattack can take down power grids, financial institutions, or even government infrastructure in minutes. Unlike traditional warfare, the battleground is invisible, but the consequences are very real. In recent years, attacks like those on Ukraine’s power systems and US pipelines have revealed how devastating these tools can be. Cyber warfare requires few resources but has the potential to cause widespread chaos.

Similarly, economic wars have emerged as a powerful weapon in global rivalries. Trade sanctions, tariffs, and financial restrictions are increasingly used to pressure opponents and achieve political aims. The ongoing US-China technology rivalry is an example of how control over industries like semiconductors and AI has turned into a geopolitical struggle. Likewise, Russia’s economic isolation following its invasion of Ukraine demonstrates how nations are now weaponizing global financial systems. These conflicts may lack bombs and bullets, but they can cripple economies, impoverish populations, and disrupt international stability.

Adding another layer of complexity are AI conflicts, where artificial intelligence and automation are being weaponized to destabilize societies from within. Autonomous bots run disinformation campaigns at scale, flooding social media with propaganda and false narratives. These tools amplify divisions, erode trust in institutions, and manipulate entire populations. For example, deepfake videos and algorithm-driven misinformation have been used to sway elections and incite unrest, creating internal conflict without external intervention.

The destruction caused by these emerging non-wars is profound, even though it may not be immediately visible. Societies become fractured, economies collapse, and governments lose their ability to govern effectively. The impacts ripple across borders, leaving nations destabilized and populations divided.

This brings us to a crucial question: Can global leaders adapt to this new reality of distributed, technology-driven conflicts, or will these tools spiral beyond human control? As power decentralizes and conflicts grow more complex, the tools of war are becoming harder to manage. The world must grapple with the reality that wars fought with code, economic leverage, and AI may be far more dangerous—and far less predictable—than those fought with traditional weapons.

Section 6: Avoiding a Future of Constant Conflict

The evolving nature of conflict demands that we reimagine how we address disputes in a world shaped by globalization and technology. Traditional frameworks of conflict resolution, like the United Nations or the Geneva Conventions, were designed for wars with clear frontlines, combatants, and ceasefires. However, these systems are ill-equipped to handle cyber warfare, AI-driven attacks, and transnational conflicts, where enemies are invisible, borders are irrelevant, and the damage is often silent but far-reaching.

We now face governance gaps where no global authority effectively regulates the tools and tactics of modern war. Cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, and autonomous weapons operate largely unchecked. This absence of oversight increases the likelihood of escalation, making small skirmishes harder to contain and disputes harder to resolve.

To bridge these gaps, we must turn to innovation in diplomacy. New solutions are urgently needed to regulate emerging forms of conflict and prevent constant, low-grade wars from becoming the norm. This includes:

• AI-driven mediation tools that can analyze conflicts, predict escalation, and recommend strategies for de-escalation in real-time.
• New coalitions that transcend borders, bringing together nations, corporations, and non-state actors to collaboratively regulate cyberwarfare, AI-based conflicts, and decentralized threats.
• Expanded legal frameworks to govern digital warfare and hold rogue actors accountable, ensuring global rules evolve alongside technology.

While humanity has created tools of unparalleled destruction, history shows that we also possess the ingenuity to build tools for peace. Innovation does not have to be a weapon; it can be a bridge—an opportunity to craft systems that prevent conflicts, resolve disputes, and promote cooperation in an increasingly fragmented world. If we can match technological progress with equal progress in governance and diplomacy, we have a real chance of avoiding a future of constant conflict.

We all aspire to living in a peaceful city of the future, but can we ever make that happen?

Final Thoughts: A Future at the Crossroads

Since 2008, war has evolved into new and uncharted realms—silent cyber battles, economic sanctions as weapons, and algorithm-driven conflicts that destabilize societies from within. These conflicts are harder to identify, harder to contain, and harder to resolve. The tools of power have become decentralized, empowering corporations, non-state actors, and individuals to wage wars that don’t look like wars at all.

The fundamental question before us is this: Can we adapt quickly enough to prevent the wars of tomorrow? Or will our most advanced technologies simply make conflict quieter, deadlier, and far more insidious? Without new systems to regulate these tools and resolve tensions, we risk living in a world of perpetual “not-war”—a fragile, simmering state where the potential for conflict never fully disappears.

The opposite of war is not peace. True peace requires a conscious effort—a deliberate act of building systems that heal divides, resolve disputes, and create stability. It’s a challenge that demands bold thinking, global cooperation, and the same innovative spirit that brought us the tools of war. Whether we embrace that challenge or allow tensions to fester will determine if we move toward a future of peace or deeper fragmentation.

Humanity stands at a crossroads. The choices we make today will shape the conflicts—or resolutions—of tomorrow.

As a futurist, I view the future not as an inevitability but as a blank slate, ripe for the imprint of our deepest hopes and desires.

Many of my friends are well aware of my fixation with unearthing the perfect quote, a quote that encapsulates the essence of what I’m trying to say in the moment. But it’s not easy. Creating the right quote is most often an elaborate wordsmithing exercise that, if done correctly, will result in a highly repeatable phrase retold over and over again by some of the world’s brightest people. That doesn’t happen very often.

Somehow I know when I hit upon a great quote because it strikes a chord inside of me, echoing my desire to find the core truths of human existence. These words are far more than echoes of days gone by; they are the guiding lights that will help usher us into a remarkably better future.

As a futurist, I view the future not as an inevitability but as a blank slate, ripe for the imprint of our deepest hopes and desires. This column is my rallying cry to harness the dynamic energy of foresight and action to construct a future that remains to be discovered, steadfast in our conviction that beyond the adversities of the past lies a future that can exceed our wildest imaginings.

Why Quotes?

Famous quotes become memorable and significant due to a combination of attributes, properties, and elements. Here are a few key attributes:

1. Brevity and Clarity: A memorable quote is often short and to the point. It conveys a complex idea or emotion in a few words, making it easy to remember and repeat.
2. Universal Appeal: Significant quotes often touch on themes or experiences that are universal. This makes them relatable to a wide audience across different cultures and time periods.
3. Emotional Resonance: Quotes that evoke strong emotions, whether it’s inspiration, humor, sadness, or wisdom, tend to stick in people’s minds. Emotional impact is a powerful tool in making a quote memorable.
4. Originality: A quote that offers a new perspective or an original thought stands out. It provides a fresh way of looking at familiar concepts, which can be enlightening and thought-provoking.
5. Use of Literary Devices: The use of metaphors, similes, alliteration, or rhymes can make a quote more appealing and memorable. Such literary devices add a layer of depth and beauty to the words.
6. Timing and Context: Sometimes, the significance of a quote is amplified by the context in which it was said or by its relevance to current events or universal truths. A quote that perfectly captures the essence of a moment can become timeless.
7. Credibility of the Speaker: Quotes from individuals who are respected, famous, or hold authority in their field often carry more weight. The reputation and achievements of the speaker can lend credibility to the words.
8. Wisdom and Insight: Quotes that provide profound insights, wisdom, or life lessons tend to be remembered and quoted often. They offer valuable guidance or reveal truths about life, society, or human nature.
9. Visual and Auditory Appeal: How a quote sounds when spoken or how it looks in writing can also impact its memorability. A rhythmic or visually striking arrangement of words can enhance a quote’s appeal.
10. Cultural and Historical Significance: Quotes that are tied to significant historical events, cultural movements, or societal changes often gain importance and memorability due to their association with these pivotal moments.

Each famous quote may not embody all these elements, but a combination of several can greatly increase its chances of becoming memorable and significant.

1. “Virtually every successful person starts with two core beliefs: the future can be better than the present, and I have the power to make it so!”

The foundation of success is often built upon a dual set of convictions: an optimistic view that the future holds greater potential than the current state of affairs, coupled with a sense of personal agency and the belief in one’s own ability to effect change. This mindset propels individuals to take initiative and persevere through challenges, fostering the resilience and drive necessary to transform aspirations into reality. It’s this combination of hopeful foresight and self-empowerment that fuels progress and achievement, encouraging a proactive approach to life and the confidence to shape one’s own destiny.

2. “When it comes to designing machines to replace humans, we often forget how enormously complex we are!”

In the endeavor to automate our world, there’s a tendency to underestimate the intricacies of human nature. The pursuit of creating machines that can take on roles typically reserved for people brings to light the depth of human complexity. This journey of technological advancement is not just about replication but understanding—a reminder of the intricate tapestry of human thought, emotion, and creativity that technology strives to parallel, and the immense scope of what it means to be human. As we stand on the brink of these technological leaps, it’s a moment to reflect on the richness of human capacity that machines aspire to emulate.

3. “If we continue to insert a teacher between us and everything we need to learn, we can’t possibly keep up with the demands of the future!”

Relying solely on traditional, teacher-led education is insufficient for keeping pace with the rapid changes and learning demands of the future. It implies that the volume and speed of new information and skills required in the future will outstrip the capacity of conventional education methods, where knowledge is typically disseminated through a teacher. This perspective encourages self-directed learning and the use of technology and other resources to learn independently. It advocates for a more proactive, autonomous approach to education, where individuals seek out information and teach themselves rather than waiting for formal instruction. The underlying message is that adaptability and the ability to learn continuously and efficiently are crucial skills in an ever-evolving world.

4. “We’re entering a world that will require higher caliber people to make it work, and it is preposterous for us to think our existing systems can suddenly start producing better results.”

As the complexity of the world grows, there is a growing demand for people with higher-level skills to manage and advance our societal and technological systems. The idea that current educational and developmental frameworks can meet these escalating requirements without significant change is unrealistic. It’s essential that these systems evolve and adapt to better prepare individuals for the intricate challenges ahead. Emphasis on innovation in learning and skill acquisition must be prioritized to ensure that the workforce can navigate and succeed in an increasingly demanding future landscape.

5. “Over the coming decades, we will become exponentially more fixable – trainable, repairable, improvable, and even reinventable. It will no longer be about who we are today, but who we have the potential to become.”

In the near future, the focus on human ability and development is set to undergo a profound shift. Advancements in technology and a deeper understanding of human capacity will enable individuals to enhance their skills, heal their bodies, and optimize their potential to a degree previously thought unimaginable. Personal identity will be seen as a dynamic concept, with an emphasis on the myriad possibilities that one can realize through learning and self-improvement. The essence of this change lies in the belief that the essence of a person is not fixed but is an ever-evolving set of capabilities that can be continually developed and expanded.

6. “With AI, we’re not just climbing mountains; we’re equipping ourselves with wings to soar across an endless sky of potential!”

Embracing AI in our lives is like unlocking a new realm of possibilities. It’s not just about overcoming challenges but about drastically expanding our capabilities. Imagine AI as a catalyst that transforms our daily experiences and professional endeavors, allowing us to venture into areas we’ve never imagined. This perspective encourages us to view AI not merely as a tool but as a gateway to uncharted territories of innovation, creativity, and personal growth. It’s an invitation to explore and harness the vast potential that AI brings to our individual lives.

7. “When it comes to education, we have met the enemy, and it is us. Ironically, we need to step aside so AI and automation can help us unlock the person we were truly meant to be!”

In the context of education, there is an emerging recognition that the greatest obstacle to progress may be our traditional approaches and reluctance to embrace new methodologies. Paradoxically, the path to self-actualization and the realization of our fullest potential may lie in allowing artificial intelligence and automated systems to take a more prominent role in the learning process. These technologies have the capacity to tailor educational experiences to individual needs and preferences, potentially leading to a more effective and personalized development journey. By stepping back from conventional methods, we might enable these advanced tools to guide us toward unlocking our inherent capabilities and discovering our true selves.

8. “Artificial Intelligence doesn’t just open doors; it creates a universe where doors no longer exist!”

9. “What meets the eye is but a fraction of the grand tapestry of our existence! The unseen, like an elusive muse, shapes and sculpts the visible, breathing the whispers of life into the silent orchestrations happening behind the scenes!”

10. “Much like particles in an accelerator, when vision and action collide, they release the energy that powers our transformation into the future!”

11. “With AI as our partner & collaborator, we are not just problem-solvers; we become the architects of a future yet to be imagined!”

When we collaborate with artificial intelligence, we’re stepping into a role far greater than mere problem-solvers. It’s a shift towards becoming the visionaries and builders of a world that’s yet to unfold. This partnership with AI isn’t just about tackling the challenges at hand but about unlocking a realm of possibilities that redefine what we can create and achieve. It’s an opportunity for each of us to contribute to a future that’s as boundless as our imagination, driven by the synergy of human ingenuity and advanced technology.

12. “Just because the past didn’t turn out the way you had hoped doesn’t mean the future can’t be even better than you imagined!”

Disappointments in the past do not necessarily dictate the quality of the future; there remains a possibility for a future that surpasses one’s dreams. This concept emphasizes the importance of not letting previous setbacks limit one’s outlook. It encourages optimism and the belief that there is always potential for a brighter tomorrow. By remaining open to this idea, individuals can maintain hope and continue to strive towards a future that may hold unexpected joys and successes, potentially exceeding their initial aspirations.

Final Thoughts

This unusual collection of quotes is far more than just a bundle of sayings; it’s a reflection of my deep-seated belief in the power of words to inspire action and invoke change. Each quote has been chosen for its ability to spark the imagination and challenge the status quo, to serve as a stepping stone towards the great unknown that lies ahead. As you absorb the wisdom contained within these pages, I hope you will carry it with you as a source of strength and inspiration, using it to navigate the complex journey of life.
I have always believed that we are the masters of our own destiny, capable of shaping a future that reflects our highest aspirations and boldest dreams. The future beckons with open arms, promising a reality that transcends our past achievements and current expectations.
Let these words inspire you, as they have inspired me, to transcend the ordinary and venture into the extraordinary, crafting a legacy that will resonate for generations to come. Remember, the path to tomorrow is paved with the insights of yesterday, and every step forward is a step into a future that we have the privilege to create.

In 2010, I made a bold prediction about the digital age. I wrote about a new group of people I called the “Terabyters.” I imagined them as folks who’d upload a massive 1 terabyte of data every day. At that time, it sounded like science fiction. Who could make that much digital content in a day? But fast forward to now, and it seems like we’re all headed in that direction.

Over the past ten years, technology has changed in big ways. Our phones have cameras that take super-clear pictures. We’ve started wearing smart glasses that can show digital info. There are even cameras that can capture everything around us in a full circle! And let’s not forget gadgets that listen to our voices or measure our heartbeats. These aren’t just toys; they record a lot about our daily lives.

All this information goes straight to a digital space called our personal cloud. It’s like a diary, but it doesn’t just have words. It records our thoughts, feelings, what we do, songs we sing, places we go, and more. This giant collection of data is our “Digital Twin” — a digital version of our lives.

Now, here’s the cool part. Smart computer programs, known as Artificial Intelligence (AI), look at our Digital Twins. They organize and study the data to help us learn more about ourselves.
They might find ways to make us more creative or healthier or even just happier.

If we keep going like this, soon we might all be adding more than one terabyte of data every day to our Digital Twins. That’s not just numbers; it’s a detailed story of our lives.

So, my prediction from 2010? It’s coming true. We’re about to enter the age of the Terabyters. Thanks to tech, we’re all on our way to creating a massive, detailed digital story of our lives.

The Rise of The Hypercycle

Hypercycle is a company run by Toui Saliba, whom I recently began working with as an Ambassador, where I actively participate in the ecosystem’s growth and development.

Hypercycle envisions interconnecting all our Digital Twins into a massive decentralized network, which will become a planetary-scale nervous system for human civilization.

The Hypercycle is a multi-layered, distributed computational substrate interconnecting humans, IoT devices, infrastructure, and AI agents into a common fabric. It functions as a global brain with collective intelligence that transcends any individual node.

Our smartphones, computers, appliances, vehicles, and public infrastructure will all become active nodes on this network. Trillions of sensors embedded into our environment will stream data into the system in real-time. Sophisticated AI agents will populate all levels of the network as bots, digital personas, and software processes interacting with humans and the world.

All this sensory data aggregated across the planet will enable the Hypercycle to construct a digital mirror-world – a highly detailed simulation of reality that models the state of humanity and the planet at a massive scale. From weather patterns to traffic flows, commodity prices to social conversations, nothing is too small or large to simulate.

Advanced machine learning algorithms crunching data from this digital world simulation will uncover novel insights about society, economics, technology, and nature. The Hypercycle’s models have the potential to make incredibly accurate predictions about our collective future. It would be like having a digital crystal ball reflecting the probabilities of what is likely to happen next.

With a refined enough digital replica of our world, the Hypercycle could become a testbed for radical new solutions to humanity’s greatest problems. We could simulate the effects of proposed policies on climate change, disease outbreaks, income inequality, food production, or infrastructure resilience before deploying them in reality. Problems that seem persistently intractable today may yield to this computational brute-force approach.

Hypercycle aims to serve as the nervous system for collective human action on a planetary scale – an infrastructure that can help humanity navigate towards an abundant, just, and sustainable future. It represents a critical step in our evolution towards an integrated civilization that behaves more like a superorganism.

By working with Hypercycle, I hope to play a small role in crafting the protocols and early-stage architecture for this monumentally important public good – the substrate for tomorrow’s hybrid intelligence.

Navigating the Privacy Labyrinth in a Digital Twin Era

The Dawn of the Singularity

Peering into the future, the intricate web created by intertwining human experiences and artificial intelligence via the Hypercycle hints at the advent of the “Singularity.” This concept represents a milestone in time when AI doesn’t just mimic human learning but takes a leap into self-driven evolution, amassing intelligence that will soon surpass human comprehension.

As we contribute to our Digital Twins and they, in turn, connect to the Hypercycle, we’re not just uploading information; we are becoming integral components or ‘nodes’ of a vast digital tapestry. Each new node – each new human experience added – doesn’t just add data but augments the collective intelligence of the entire system. Think of the Hypercycle as an enormous brain, with each of us representing individual neurons that make it think, learn, and evolve.

This continuously learning mega-brain wouldn’t just store data. It would churn this data, seeking patterns, understanding behaviors, and gaining insights at a scale and depth beyond our individual capacities. As it evolves, it could venture into fields we’ve long grappled with, from modeling the progression of complex diseases in virtual environments to designing cities that can think and respond. It might branch into evolving automation techniques or break language barriers with unprecedented finesse.

But one of the most profound, and perhaps unsettling, possibilities is the Hypercycle’s potential for self-enhancement. The day might not be far when this network doesn’t wait for human directives but starts to upgrade itself, redefining its code and expanding its capabilities autonomously.

Futurists like Ray Kurzweil have often hinted at such a stage where an AI’s intellectual trajectory rockets upward, leaving human understanding in its wake. This AI, with its intricate mesh of algorithms, might seem to have its own “intentions” guided by objectives set deep within its code. As we stand at the cusp of such a transformative era, the pivotal question emerges: Will this supreme intelligence remain an ally, amplifying our human potential, or will it become an enigma with its own unpredictable ambitions?

Preparing for the Future

The concepts of Terabyters, Digital Twins, and the all-encompassing Hypercycle might appear as fragments of an ambitious science fiction tale to many. But let’s cast our minds back to when the notion of individuals churning out one terabyte of data daily felt more like fantasy than a foreseeable reality. Technological revolutions have a unique character: their onset often feels sudden, catching society off guard, and their impact tends to ripple far and wide.

Today, we stand at a crucial juncture of such an evolutionary leap. The tidal wave of data is no longer a distant prediction; it’s our current reality, and there’s no turning back. Avoiding this digital interconnectivity would not only deprive us of its inherent advantages but also leave us lagging in an ever-competitive world, both in terms of innovation and global cognizance.

Instead of apprehension, what we need is anticipation. It’s imperative that we brace ourselves for what’s ahead. This means not just training our workforce to adapt to the jobs of tomorrow but overhauling our entire educational paradigms to foster the untapped potential within us. As connectivity plays a pivotal role in this new era, ensuring everyone has seamless internet access should be a fundamental priority, akin to other essential amenities. Moreover, as we embark on this journey, establishing a solid framework of data ethics is crucial to ensure our privacy and digital rights remain uncompromised.

Predicting the exact timeline of when our digital counterparts, the interconnected Hypercycle, or the much-discussed Singularity will fully manifest remains a challenge. However, gauging by our current acceleration in technological advancements, it’s safe to say that the window to ready ourselves might be narrower than anticipated. The AI-driven ecosystems of the near future will stand as a testament to our boundless aspirations, but they’ll also echo our vulnerabilities. Steering this technological metamorphosis requires us to pool together our shared insights, compassion, and aspirations, ensuring a digital future that champions the collective good above all else.

The 2019 action thriller “Angel Has Fallen” presents a chilling scenario that highlights the potential power of swarmbots. In this film, Morgan Freeman stars as the President of the United States, while Gerard Butler plays the head of his Secret Service detail. A pivotal scene in the movie depicts a swarm of explosive-laden drones descending upon the presidential protection detail, causing widespread chaos and destruction. This dramatic portrayal raises several provocative questions about the role swarmbots may play in our future, both in the realms of possibility and peril.

As we venture into an era where swarmbot technology advances at a breakneck pace, we must confront the ethical, societal, and military implications of their deployment. How will these autonomous systems transform our lives, and will they be used primarily for good or ill? Can we harness swarmbots’ immense potential for positive change, such as medical advancements, environmental protection, and disaster response, while mitigating their capacity for harm in the wrong hands?

Personal Swarms Revolutionizing Daily Life

As I stood in the shower a few months ago, the question of our future intermingled with the steam and water droplets swirling around me, and the question occurred to me: “How will swarmbots transform our lives by 2040?” The question buzzed around my brain as I imagined personal swarms of 10,000 tiny flying bots that will carry us through our morning routines, merging our minds with the digital realm and reshaping the way we live.

In the not-too-distant future, our daily lives will invariably be transformed by these intelligent swarms. Picture them whisking us out of bed, fine-tuning the perfect water temperature, and entertaining us with immersive experiences during our brief one-minute showers. They’ll dry us off, style our hair, shave us, and even assemble themselves as our clothing, matching our moods with their colors and patterns.

At times they will serve as an impenetrable shell to protect us like a turtle, yet at other times they will become our base of communications, the guardian of our data, our source of entertainment, a cradle to comfort our children, but also our own personal bully when the situation demands it.

The swarmbot industry will likely boom, with swarm dealerships and customizable swarms emerging to cater to our every whim. Our interactions with these swarms will evolve over time. Will we communicate with them through voice commands, gestures, or even direct mind control? The possibilities are both exhilarating and unnerving.

As we become one with our swarms, we’ll need to consider the ethical implications. Personal swarms will have the potential to heal, protect, and assist us in ways never before possible. But they may also be wielded as weapons for intimidation, theft, or worse. Teenagers may form gangs with their swarms, and nations may develop military swarms that will trigger a new arms race and necessitate swarm disarmament treaties.

Swarms will likely replace many of the technologies we rely on today, such as smartphones, delivery drones, and even traditional robots. They will communicate with each other and perhaps even “jam” rival swarms or borrow resources from neighboring swarms in emergencies.

As we approach the Swarm Age, we must ask ourselves: How young is too young for a child to have their own personal swarm? How fast will these swarms be able to fly, and how far can they push the boundaries of human capabilities?

Our future with swarmbots is both fascinating and frightening as the line between human and machine continues to blur. The Swarm Age will challenge us to adapt, grow, and redefine our understanding of what it means to be human in a world buzzing with possibilities.

Protection Swarms and Ethical Considerations

As we venture into the Swarm Age, personal swarms of swarmbots will provide us with unprecedented protection and security. By merging cutting-edge technology with our innate desire for safety, these swarms will revolutionize the way we safeguard ourselves and our loved ones. Here are some ways our personal swarms can protect us:

Personal bodyguards:

Swarmbots will act as a shield around us, constantly scanning the environment for potential threats. They will detect and neutralize hazards, such as an approaching attacker, by immobilizing them or creating a physical barrier between us and the danger.

Health monitoring:

Swarms will constantly monitor our vitals and detect any abnormalities, such as irregular heartbeats, high blood pressure, or symptoms of illness. They will alert us to potential health issues, administer medication, or even perform minor medical procedures.

Emergency assistance:

In case of an accident or emergency, swarmbots will quickly assess the situation and call for help, providing our exact location to first responders. They will also administer first aid, stabilize injuries, and guide us through life-saving procedures until help arrives.

Surveillance and privacy:

Our personal swarms will act as a security system for our homes and personal belongings, monitoring for intruders and alerting us to any unauthorized access. Additionally, they will protect our privacy by shielding us from unwanted surveillance, such as drones or hidden cameras.

Environmental protection:

Swarms will shield us from harmful environmental factors, like extreme temperatures, UV radiation, or air pollution, by creating a protective barrier or filtering the air around us.

Disaster response:

In the event of a natural disaster, swarmbots will help locate survivors, provide resources, and assist with rescue efforts. They will also help rebuild infrastructure, clear debris, and support communities in the aftermath of a disaster.

Cybersecurity:

As our lives become increasingly connected, personal swarms will protect our digital identities and data from cyberattacks. They will monitor for suspicious activity, encrypt our communications, and defend our devices from malware and hackers.

Child safety:

Personal swarms will be programmed to safeguard children by monitoring their whereabouts, ensuring they don’t wander too far, and alerting parents if the child is in danger. They will also teach children about personal safety and provide age-appropriate information on potential hazards.

Self-defense:

Swarmbots will be equipped with non-lethal self-defense mechanisms, like pepper spray or tasers, which will be deployed if we’re threatened. They will also be trained in evasive maneuvers, guiding us to safety if we find ourselves in a dangerous situation.

Traffic safety:

As we navigate busy streets, our swarms will protect us by analyzing traffic patterns, detecting oncoming vehicles or obstacles, and guiding us safely across intersections.

While the Swarm Age brings immense potential for safety and protection, it also raises ethical concerns and the potential for misuse. As we continue to develop and integrate swarmbots into our lives, we must ensure that their capabilities are harnessed responsibly to truly enhance our well-being and security.

Swarmbots on the Battlefield

In the future, militaries around the world will likely adopt swarmbots as a crucial component of their strategies and operations. These advanced, autonomous systems can provide significant advantages in various scenarios. Here are several examples of how the military may use swarmbots in the future:

Reconnaissance and intelligence gathering:

Swarmbots can be deployed to gather information on enemy positions, movements, and infrastructure. Equipped with cameras and sensors, they can discreetly infiltrate enemy territory, collecting real-time data and transmitting it back to military command centers, allowing for better-informed decision-making.

Defensive operations:

Swarmbots can be used to protect military installations, equipment, and personnel. They can form a protective barrier around key assets, detect and neutralize potential threats, or even create a ‘smart’ minefield that can differentiate between friend and foe.

Offensive operations:

Swarmbots can be employed to overwhelm and disrupt enemy defenses. They can swarm enemy targets, such as radar installations, communication networks, or weapons systems, disabling or destroying them with minimal risk to human soldiers. Additionally, they can act as decoys, drawing enemy fire and revealing their positions.

Logistics and support:

Swarmbots can be utilized for delivering supplies, ammunition, and medical equipment to troops in the field. They can navigate challenging terrain, avoid detection, and reach remote or dangerous areas that would otherwise be difficult to access.

Search and rescue:

In the aftermath of a battle or natural disaster, swarmbots can be deployed to locate and rescue injured soldiers or civilians. They can quickly cover large areas, detect vital signs, and provide real-time information to rescue teams, increasing the chances of finding survivors.

Electronic warfare:

Swarmbots can be designed to carry out electronic warfare operations, such as jamming enemy communications, intercepting and decrypting signals, or conducting cyberattacks on enemy networks and infrastructure.

Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear detection:

Swarmbots equipped with specialized sensors can be used to detect and assess a wide range of threats, helping to protect troops and civilians from exposure to hazardous materials.

Anti-swarm defense:

As swarm technology becomes more prevalent, militaries may develop specialized swarmbots designed to counter enemy swarms. These anti-swarm systems will be equipped with EMP devices, electronic jamming, or even laser-based weapons to neutralize or destroy hostile swarmbots.

Training and simulation:

Swarmbots can be used to simulate enemy forces during military training exercises, providing a realistic and dynamic training environment that can adapt to the changing tactics and strategies of human soldiers.

Post-conflict stabilization:

In the wake of military operations, swarmbots can assist with reconstruction efforts, such as clearing debris, repairing damaged infrastructure, and conducting environmental monitoring to assess the long-term impacts of conflict. As militaries increasingly adopt swarmbot technology, the nature of warfare may evolve, with a greater emphasis on autonomous systems and artificial intelligence. However, this also raises concerns about the ethical implications of using autonomous systems in warfare and the potential for escalation and proliferation.

Embracing Our Inner Superman with Swarmbots

As we have explored the vast potential of swarmbots in various aspects of our lives, one particularly fascinating and exhilarating possibility stands out: the power of personal flight. Imagine a future where swarmbots will help us tap into our inner Superman, allowing us to soar through the skies and travel wherever our hearts desire.

While it may sound like the stuff of science fiction, the rapid advancements in swarmbot technology, combined with breakthroughs in materials science, energy storage, and control systems, will make this dream a reality sooner than we think. With swarmbots acting as our personal aerial assistants, we will unlock unprecedented freedom of movement and transform the way we experience the world around us.

In such a future, personal swarms of intelligent, miniaturized drones will be harnessed to carry us aloft, navigating through the air with precision and speed. Each individual swarmbot would communicate and coordinate with its neighbors, sharing the burden of lift and propulsion and adjusting its position and orientation in real-time to maintain stability and control.

The development of lightweight, high-capacity batteries or even wireless energy transfer systems will provide the necessary power for extended flight times. Advanced materials and structures will enable these swarmbots to be both strong enough to support human weight and agile enough to respond to changing conditions and flight commands.

In this airborne utopia, we could break free from the constraints of traditional transportation, exploring our world from a bird’s-eye view and embracing the liberating sensation of flight. Commutes would become exhilarating journeys through the skies, and we would be empowered to explore the most remote corners of our planet with ease.

But, as with all transformative technologies, the advent of personal flight through swarmbots will also bring new challenges and responsibilities. We would need to address the potential risks to public safety, privacy concerns, and environmental impact. Rules and regulations would need to be established to ensure the safe and responsible use of swarmbot-assisted flight, and we would need to develop the skills and knowledge to navigate this brave new world of aerial freedom.

Facing the Swarm Age Responsibly

As the Swarm Age dawns, we must strive to direct swarmbot technology towards beneficial applications while mitigating its potential dangers. By fostering responsible development and implementation of swarmbots, we can embrace a future buzzing with possibilities. The Swarm Age will undoubtedly challenge us to adapt, grow, and redefine our understanding of what it means to be human in a world where machines become ever more entwined with our lives.

The fictional portrayal of swarmbots in “Angel Has Fallen” serves as a reminder of their potential for destruction, but it is up to us to shape the trajectory of this technology. By exploring the various facets of swarmbot technology and proactively addressing the ethical, societal, and military implications, we can ensure that the power of the swarm serves the greater good and leads us toward a brighter, more connected future.

When Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone in 2007, no one understood at the time how disruptive that device would be to existing technology. Now with rumors of Apple launching their augmented reality (AR) smart glasses products next year, people are speculating about how disruptive this technology will be.

Since iPhones are one of Apple’s primary revenue streams, they may be cautious about releasing a product that may encroach on their own turf. However, as we’ll suggest below, it may not be an either/or situation for users.

At the same time, Google and Meta plan to launch their smart glasses next year, so the competition is already heating up.

AR not VR

These upcoming, early-generation AR smart glasses won’t be projecting metaverses like virtual reality (VR) headsets. They’ll have functionality that’s similar to the superimposed, heads-up, transparent displays available on the windshields of fighter jets and high-end automobiles. They will include augmented-by-wireless mini-microphones and speakers for an integrated multi-sensory experience.

They’ll present information at eye and ear level. Distracting, maybe, but the technology won’t block out the real world like VR. Thus, AR and VR glasses/headsets will be distinct for the time being given that VR requires far more computing power and, therefore, larger devices.

In the future, though, AR and VR glasses will be combined into a single, stylish, wrap-around facial accessory and users will seamlessly navigate between the two features and the two worlds.

“Stop Looking at Your Phone!”

Parents soon will have to find a new scold phrase to prompt their kids to get offline at the dinner table. And getting them offline will become even more difficult as young users migrate from smartphones to smart glasses.

Nearly all the apps that fill the screens of our handhelds will be available on AR smart glasses: cameras, social media, music, texting, newsfeeds, online shopping, audio and visual streaming, recording, and, of course, audio phone calling – all enabled by self-contained wireless connectivity.

I don’t see a way, though, to conduct video calls using AR glasses given that the device is located so close to the person’s face.

The devices perched on our noses and tucked behind our ears will be wearable minicomputers, complete with speakers near the ears or even on attached earbuds. We’ll soon get the hang of giving voice commands, pointing with our eyeballs, and touching buttons or swiping on the stems of the glasses without a second thought as we navigate our social and professional life on the go.

Seven Best-Use Cases and Features for AR Smart Glasses

As I imagine how smart glasses will change everyday life, I can’t help but think about some of the ideal functional features I hope and assume they’ll offer.

1. When you’re introduced to someone, their name and image will register in your contacts database, and thanks to facial recognition software, the name will pop up on your heads-up display when you see them again 10 minutes or a week later.
2. As you pass a restaurant, the name and location will be enough to cue up their menu and their daily specials right before your eyes.
3. AR smart glasses will be available with corrective vision so there won’t be a need to “stack glasses.”
4. Smart glasses will automatically adjust lighting contrast and font colors to ensure the projected content is readable in all lighting conditions.
5. Online maps and directions will show users the upcoming turns and routes superimposed onto the road they see ahead of them.
6. Our heads-up screens will include a virtual assistant avatar we can summon with that familiar “Hey …” The avatar will be at our disposal to access apps and help keep the experience as hands-free as possible.
7. The visual experience will be transferrable to specialized glass in a number of settings – windshields and windows for example. Think of it as a blue-tooth-like ability to project the heads-up “desk-top” to a more distant spot to give our eyes a rest.

A Choice in Devices

Back to our initial question: Will AR smart glasses replace smartphones? I believe the more relevant questions are what portion of our online time will be spent utilizing smart glasses and how soon will that happen?

How much we use our smart glasses will be more a matter of human nature than technology. There’s always inertia to overcome to put aside something familiar to learn an unfamiliar system and at first seemingly complex. We can adapt to incremental changes in successive versions of our handheld devices, for example, but switching to a new system altogether is going to be a hill too far to climb for some.

The 20% of us who are early IT adopters and tend to dive right in will be in line in 2023 and 2024 when the enhanced smart glasses products come out (rudimentary versions with limited functionality are available now).

The 50% who tend to wait for technology to evolve and come down in price and who can be peer-pressured into switching to smart glasses will follow within a few more years.

The remainder may not see the need to make the transition as long as technology companies still provide the handheld option – and I believe the major manufacturers will do exactly that.

After all, many of us own tablets (for utility) as well as smartphones (for convenience) and use each at different times for different functions.

There’ll be a time and place for smart glasses. After all, we’d legitimately feel a little self-conscious, and it would seem intrusive to dictate a text message in public.

And it may appear somewhat creepy to seemingly stare into space while doing some web searching … unless we can superimpose a graphic on the outside of the lens that says something like, “I’m not staring, I’m googling.”

Pushing the Envelope

Eventually, we will move from smart glasses to smart contact, perhaps using AR contact lenses that have additional capabilities built into them like zoom focusing and peripheral vision object detection. Since I’m not a design team insider, it’s hard to determine which features may be considered reasonable and which ones won’t.

Yet, even with smart contacts, it’s difficult to imagine an “either-or” situation between smartphones and smart contacts as each of us knows what it’s like to correct that stubborn text message that voice recognition can’t quite understand and we’re forced to tap out the letters manually.

I’m also intrigued by the option to move from augmented to more immersive technologies. In fact, the scale of overlays could range from black and white to scanning body energies, to “lose-the-clothes x-ray vision, to “I want to buy those shoes” buy-now buttons. And immersive medical glasses may allow doctors and nurses to probe the inner function of specific organs instantly.

Smart Glasses as our Personal AI Buddy Bots

The average person today consumes information over 12 hours every day, but we currently have no way of measuring the salient pieces of wisdom being added to our working memory.

In an ed-tech-driven future, smart glasses will likely be used to see what we’re seeing, hear what we’re hearing, and use additional mnemonic queues to feel, touch, and taste everything we’re experiencing.

I like to think of this pair of smart glasses that we talk back and forth to as our AI Buddy Bot.

Using a conversational interface, the Buddy Bot will develop a friendly rapport with each person, responding appropriately to positive exchanges filled with jokes, happiness, and moments of excitement, as well as negative exchanges filled with anger, trash talk, and hurtful comments.

Over time, the AI Buddy-Bot will become our personal buddy, our best friend, that person we can tell your most intimate secrets to, confide in, and share your hopes and dreams.

It will become our personal therapist, our cheerleader, our protector, the guardian of our privacy, and our conversational coach, often finishing our sentences with the words we’re struggling to speak.

It will know us intimately from our deepest flaws to our greatest successes and everything in between. It will simultaneously become the friend we always wish we had, the source of unlimited ideas and new possibilities, and our single most valuable possession.

Eventually, we will add additional bots like AI assessment bots, AI coach-bots, and AI teacher-bot to enhance the self-learning experience, but I’ll talk more about that later.

As with every tech evolution, there will be advantages and disadvantages to every new ability. But rest assured, over the long run, today’s switch to smart glasses in the future will be viewed as little more than a single step on a 10,000-step journey, a journey to a place we can’t yet understand.

For more than 50 years, scientists, philosophers, and mathematicians have been exploring and perfecting advances in artificial intelligence (AI) while the average person was in the dark about the details and actual capabilities during this time. It wasn’t until IBM’s Deep Blue computer defeated world chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997 that we could begin to relate to this incredible new branch of science.

The next generation experienced a similar moment 18 years later when IBM’s Watson defeated two Jeopardy champions.

And now, a decade further still, AI is all around us.

Most of us can’t even distinguish applications of AI from “normal” life. AI powers our social media and news feeds. It’s given us speech and biometric recognition along with verbal computer communication. Language-based interfaces answer our questions and give us directions to where we’re going.

Simply put, but amazing to consider, AI simulates and mimics human thought processes and actions to perform tasks, forming conclusions in a way that a human might.

So when it comes to machines that think and act like a person … what could go wrong with that?

We naturally don’t trust things we don’t understand. And if we can’t understand things like AI fully, we want to be sure that someone we trust is watching out for our best interests. We don’t have that kind of oversight at the moment, but we’re quickly going to need it.

Bad Data and Bad Actors

Why do we need AI regulation?

Many ethical issues arising from AI are due to poorly formed or inadequate inputs such as the data and the basis of knowledge the AI program is provided to work with. Bad data gives bad results, and biased data, that doesn’t actually reflect a real-world situation, will trigger biased machine learning and, therefore, flawed results. Policies or actions based on those results move us backwards, not forwards.

There are also occasions for humans to use AI technology in a more nefarious, possibly criminal way. AI can be used to manipulate, trick, and distort, but one person’s manipulation may also be another person’s “persuasion.” And pre-judging – in targeted advertising, for example – isn’t too different from “customizing.” It’s all a matter of degrees and intent. We know inappropriate AI-driven activity when we see it, but bright lines are often hard to define.

Underlying Standards for AI Ethics

Responsible AI that safely serves humankind (and not just the manipulators, tricksters, and distorters) will need to:

Explainability

Be based on standards of transparency and “explainability,” meaning a common understanding of the input, processing, and output of the AI function. This entails having common, agreed-upon language and definitions as well as measures of success and error. It means there are no black boxes with results or processes that can’t be rationally explained.

Standards

Be based on standards that weigh both the benefits and the risks of AI. This requires stepping back within the research and design phase to consider the harm or downsides that might occur due to missteps in the development of the system or exploitation of the system when it’s released. At the development stage, there’s a tendency to over-promote the positives and downplay concerns, a tendency known as “ethics washing.” Equally concerning is the inclination to ignore the downsides of AI “for now,” while offering assurances that these issues will be addressed as they arise.

Safeguards

Maintain guardrails, safety standards, and protocols to govern high-risk functions of AI, such as voice and facial recognition or social bots. The AI behind deepfakes is a prime example, this amazing technology can be used for legitimate reasons such as movie special effects. Or it can be used for nefarious purposes to misinform, deceive, misrepresent, and much worse. Bots are another example. Appropriately used as digital assistants or as web crawlers to sort and rank information, social bots, on the other hand, can be intentionally used to distort online discussions and spread falsehoods.

Human-in-the-Loop

Ensure there’s always a human in the loop to train, tune, and test AI algorithms to ensure those first three criteria are met. In other words, AI should not be completely overseeing AI development.

Using these standards as guiding posts, AI regulation will need to quickly get into the weeds. We shouldn’t try to create broad enforceable standards that try to address every conceivable application. Instead, we should focus on use cases regarding specific tools, such as facial recognition and business sectors, such as the use of AI in banking or national defense.

Creating an AI Police Force

Who is it that should put these policies in place and enforce them? This is a huge question with no easy answers.

We can’t completely count on legislative bodies to codify and regulate these standards. Policymaking is slow, subject to special interest manipulation, and, yes, even political. These government bodies always seem to address last-generation challenges even as iterative new problems replace the old ones.

Plus, the standards need to be global, which is an even more challenging policy arena. Governments at every level have a measure of independence from industry, which is important to foster trust but makes them less attuned to the urgencies of today.

To be certain, government bodies haven’t exactly been on the sidelines. Nations (e.g., the U.S. and China) and blocs of nations (e.g., the EU) have issued frameworks for oversight and regulation of AI. It’s at least a start.

More likely the policies will be set by regulation, with knowledgeable input from industry tempered by informed regulatory staff who can put that input into context.

As this evolves, though, we’ll need to put the onus on tech companies themselves to establish internal standards and work collectively to develop industry-wide standards. These can serve as points of information and even boundary lines for establishing regulations.

What Else Needs to Happen?

To be certain, I’m a big fan of AI. Our future will be driven by AI technology that can discern, understand, learn, and act far quicker and more reliably than we can. It will give us additional capabilities and we’ll all be better for it.

But in order to enhance trust and in order to keep AI in its proper place, in addition to regulatory safeguards, all of us will need to recognize AI for what it is and what it isn’t. AI involves machine learning and other processes that might be flawed if that learning comes from the processing of incomplete or biased data.

Ninety-nine times out of 100 your map application will get you to your destination. But don’t bet your life on it because there will still be times when it sends you to a dead-end or a road closure. AI programs might be able to predict an election outcome with a level of certainty, but they may still have their own “Dewey Defeats Truman” moments, perhaps because in those political contexts it relies on polling data from people who increasingly hate to be polled.

We’ll also need to develop our own levels of healthy skepticism – to not always believe what we see and read in social media, for example. That will be a major challenge as more and more curated content is AI-distributed, and bot-driven, in a way that reinforces our predilections, to begin with.

For better and worse, AI mimics human thought processes. The cycle of incomplete data inputs, leading to faulty learning, resulting in bad decisions is true with humans as well.

We aspire to live in a world far better than what we have today, and AI is a key piece of the equation for getting us there.