It would seem we’re creating a more fragile world that feels closer to “not-war” than true peace.

Introduction: Revisiting the Nature of War in 2024

In 2008, I explored the shifting nature of war and peace, predicting that battles would one day extend beyond borders and physical battlefields. At the time, the conversation centered on traditional conflicts, but the seeds of a new kind of warfare were already being sown. Fast forward to 2024, and the world has changed dramatically. Wars in Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza have shown us that while battles still rage with boots on the ground, their nature has evolved. Emerging technologies have given rise to non-traditional conflicts—cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, and proxy wars—where the lines between combatants, civilians, and nations blur.

Today, war is no longer just about territorial conquest or armies clashing in open fields. It is about shaping perceptions, crippling infrastructure, and fighting battles that most people cannot see. At the same time, peace remains as elusive as ever. When the gunfire stops, hostilities rarely end. The scars of war—emotional, social, and economic—persist long after treaties are signed, creating a fragile world that feels closer to “not-war” than true peace.

The reality we face is unsettling: ”The opposite of war is not peace—it’s a new, unfamiliar ‘not-war,’ a place where tensions brew, and battles look nothing like we imagined.” To understand the wars of today, we must first confront the complex realities of modern conflicts, where technology, propaganda, and invisible battlefields have replaced the wars of the past.

Conflicts are no longer just fought with weapons—they are fought with ideas, perceptions, and deepfake videos.

Section 1: The Complex Realities of Modern War

The wars of today are more complex, more indirect, and often invisible to the public eye. Traditional battlefronts have given way to proxy conflicts, cyber warfare, and information manipulation, leaving nations to fight battles that are harder to identify, contain, or resolve.

Proxy wars have become one of the defining features of modern conflict. In wars like those in Ukraine and Syria, the battles are not just fought between two nations but also shaped by external powers pulling strings from behind the scenes. Countries supply weapons, funding, and mercenaries to advance their geopolitical agendas while avoiding direct involvement. Proxy wars allow powerful nations to escalate conflicts without risking their own soldiers’ lives, turning smaller nations into battlegrounds for larger rivalries.

At the same time, cyber warfare has emerged as a silent but devastating weapon. State-sponsored cyberattacks, often orchestrated by countries like Russia, China, or North Korea, target critical infrastructure, financial systems, and government networks. A single well-coordinated cyberattack can cripple an entire nation without a single shot fired—shutting down power grids, hacking banks, and manipulating elections. Cyberwarfare is invisible, making it particularly dangerous because its effects are not always immediately visible, yet its reach is global.

Adding to the complexity are information wars, where public narratives become the new battlefields. Advances in AI-generated propaganda, deepfake technology, and the weaponization of social media have made it easier than ever to spread misinformation and manipulate public opinion. Conflicts are no longer just fought with weapons—they are fought with ideas, perceptions, and false realities. For example, during active conflicts, deepfake videos and AI-powered tools can spread fabricated stories that confuse and divide populations, creating chaos and distrust.

The key point is this: traditional wars with clear frontlines are disappearing. In their place, we face a world of dispersed conflicts, where battles occur in cyberspace, media channels, and human perceptions. These wars are harder to see, harder to fight, and harder to end. In this new reality, the tools of war are as subtle as they are devastating, reshaping our understanding of conflict and power.

Section 2: The Changing Weapons of Power and Destruction

The tools of modern warfare are evolving at an unprecedented pace. As technology advances, the weapons of power and destruction are shifting away from traditional military arsenals to innovative tools that are far more precise, devastating, and accessible.

New technologies such as drones, autonomous robots, and AI-guided missiles are redefining how wars are fought. No longer limited to nations with vast military budgets, these tools are now widely available, allowing even smaller actors to exert influence on the battlefield. The ongoing war in Ukraine highlights this shift, where low-cost drones have become critical tools in modern military strategy. Armed with cameras, explosives, and advanced tracking systems, drones offer a combination of affordability, precision, and high impact, enabling even small forces to inflict significant damage.

The rise of biological and nano weapons presents another chilling possibility. Engineered viruses, bio-agents, and nanoscale weapons have the potential to target individuals, populations, or even entire food and water systems with terrifying precision. Unlike conventional weapons, these tools leave little trace and can be deployed silently, making them far harder to detect or defend against. A single engineered pathogen released into a population could cripple nations in days, illustrating how the next major conflict could be fought not on a battlefield but within bodies and ecosystems.

Perhaps most alarming is the growing empowerment of individual disruptors. Technologies like advanced hacking tools, small-scale drones, and even 3D-printed weapons have decentralized the tools of power, placing them in the hands of lone actors. A single hacker can paralyze a nation’s digital infrastructure, crashing financial systems, shutting down energy grids, or leaking classified intelligence. Similarly, a lone drone operator or 3D-printing enthusiast can create weapons capable of targeting critical infrastructure or disrupting everyday life. Warfare is no longer the exclusive domain of states—it now belongs to anyone with access to technology.

The key takeaway is this: the tools of war have become decentralized. Traditional national armies are increasingly giving way to technology-driven actors and empowered individuals. In this new landscape, the potential for conflict is no longer limited to organized battles but extends to rogue agents and invisible threats, fundamentally reshaping how wars begin, escalate, and impact the world.

Power is increasingly becoming fragmented across corporations, non-state actors, and economic alliances.

Section 3: The Opposite of War and the Illusion of Peace

War does not truly end when the guns fall silent. While treaties and ceasefires may halt the fighting, they rarely resolve the deep fractures left behind. The scars of war—social, economic, emotional, and generational—persist long after conflicts are declared “over,” leaving societies fragile, divided, and vulnerable to future tensions.

In many regions, what follows a war is not peace but a “not-war zone”—a place where active fighting pauses, yet hostilities and unresolved grievances continue to simmer beneath the surface. These fragile states are seen in regions like post-war Syria, where infrastructure remains in ruins and millions remain displaced. Similarly, frozen conflicts such as Nagorno-Karabakh demonstrate how unresolved territorial disputes can linger for decades, erupting into violence when circumstances shift. In places like Gaza, ceasefires provide temporary calm, but they fail to address the underlying grievances that perpetuate cycles of conflict. These “not-war zones” stand as stark reminders that halting violence is only the first step in achieving lasting peace.

The real challenge lies in addressing the root causes of war—issues such as inequality, territorial disputes, ethnic divides, and technological competition. Without meaningful resolution, conflicts are simply paused, ready to mutate into new forms. What we once understood as conventional wars now often transform into cyber conflicts, economic sanctions, or ideological battles that never fully resolve.

This brings us to a critical question: Are we moving toward longer, quieter wars? Modern conflicts may lack the visible carnage of traditional wars, but their impacts are no less profound. Cyberattacks can cripple economies, propaganda can fracture societies, and sanctions can strangle nations—all without a single bullet being fired. These low-grade struggles may persist for years, festering in the background, eroding stability, and preventing true peace from taking hold.

True peace is more than an absence of fighting—it is a state of resolution, understanding, and stability. Yet, as conflicts evolve into more complex and less visible forms, achieving that peace has become more elusive than ever. Without addressing the root causes of war, we risk living in a perpetual state of “not-war,” where tensions remain unresolved, and humanity lurches from one conflict to the next.

Section 4: The Future of Power in a Fractured World

The structures of power in today’s world are evolving rapidly, no longer confined to traditional nation-states. Instead, power is increasingly fragmented across corporations, non-state actors, and economic alliances, creating a complex and multipolar landscape that makes conflicts harder to resolve.

Corporate power has become one of the most significant forces in the modern world. Tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Palantir wield influence comparable to sovereign nations. They control vast amounts of data, dominate artificial intelligence development, and own critical digital infrastructure that governments, businesses, and individuals depend on daily. During times of conflict, corporations can sway outcomes—whether by controlling access to cloud infrastructure, leveraging AI to analyze real-time threats, or influencing public opinion through digital platforms. Their reach transcends borders, leaving nations to compete for alignment and cooperation with these emerging power players.

Meanwhile, non-state actors like cybercriminal groups, rogue hackers, and ideological militias have gained unprecedented leverage. These groups often operate beyond traditional political controls, exploiting cyberspace to disrupt economies, manipulate narratives, or inflict real-world damage. For example, cyber groups like Lazarus (North Korea-affiliated) have targeted global financial systems, while ideological militias use encrypted platforms to mobilize followers and wage asymmetric battles. The decentralized nature of these actors makes them hard to detect and even harder to control.

Economic alliances are also playing an increasingly dominant role. Groups like OPEC or emerging trade blocs wield influence over global policies by dictating access to critical resources and controlling economic leverage. Nations competing for dominance in these alliances often find themselves locked in economic rivalries that blur the line between cooperation and conflict. Trade sanctions, tariffs, and resource control have become modern weapons, shaping geopolitics without the need for military engagement.

The key point is this: Power has fragmented across new entities, shifting away from nation-states and into the hands of corporations, rogue actors, and economic coalitions. This fractured landscape complicates conflict resolution as multiple players—each with unique interests—compete for influence. In a multipolar world, the ability to contain or resolve disputes grows increasingly elusive, leaving global stability in a fragile state.

Can global leaders adapt to this new reality of distributed, technology-driven conflicts, or will these tools spiral beyond human control?

Section 5: The New Faces of War and Conflict

The wars of today no longer resemble the conventional battles of the past. Instead, we are witnessing the rise of non-wars—conflicts that are less visible yet equally destructive, driven by technology, economics, and artificial intelligence. These new faces of war redefine how power is wielded, nations are disrupted, and societies are destabilized.

Cyber wars are at the forefront of modern conflict, with nations and non-state actors alike leveraging digital attacks to cripple essential systems. A well-executed cyberattack can take down power grids, financial institutions, or even government infrastructure in minutes. Unlike traditional warfare, the battleground is invisible, but the consequences are very real. In recent years, attacks like those on Ukraine’s power systems and US pipelines have revealed how devastating these tools can be. Cyber warfare requires few resources but has the potential to cause widespread chaos.

Similarly, economic wars have emerged as a powerful weapon in global rivalries. Trade sanctions, tariffs, and financial restrictions are increasingly used to pressure opponents and achieve political aims. The ongoing US-China technology rivalry is an example of how control over industries like semiconductors and AI has turned into a geopolitical struggle. Likewise, Russia’s economic isolation following its invasion of Ukraine demonstrates how nations are now weaponizing global financial systems. These conflicts may lack bombs and bullets, but they can cripple economies, impoverish populations, and disrupt international stability.

Adding another layer of complexity are AI conflicts, where artificial intelligence and automation are being weaponized to destabilize societies from within. Autonomous bots run disinformation campaigns at scale, flooding social media with propaganda and false narratives. These tools amplify divisions, erode trust in institutions, and manipulate entire populations. For example, deepfake videos and algorithm-driven misinformation have been used to sway elections and incite unrest, creating internal conflict without external intervention.

The destruction caused by these emerging non-wars is profound, even though it may not be immediately visible. Societies become fractured, economies collapse, and governments lose their ability to govern effectively. The impacts ripple across borders, leaving nations destabilized and populations divided.

This brings us to a crucial question: Can global leaders adapt to this new reality of distributed, technology-driven conflicts, or will these tools spiral beyond human control? As power decentralizes and conflicts grow more complex, the tools of war are becoming harder to manage. The world must grapple with the reality that wars fought with code, economic leverage, and AI may be far more dangerous—and far less predictable—than those fought with traditional weapons.

Section 6: Avoiding a Future of Constant Conflict

The evolving nature of conflict demands that we reimagine how we address disputes in a world shaped by globalization and technology. Traditional frameworks of conflict resolution, like the United Nations or the Geneva Conventions, were designed for wars with clear frontlines, combatants, and ceasefires. However, these systems are ill-equipped to handle cyber warfare, AI-driven attacks, and transnational conflicts, where enemies are invisible, borders are irrelevant, and the damage is often silent but far-reaching.

We now face governance gaps where no global authority effectively regulates the tools and tactics of modern war. Cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, and autonomous weapons operate largely unchecked. This absence of oversight increases the likelihood of escalation, making small skirmishes harder to contain and disputes harder to resolve.

To bridge these gaps, we must turn to innovation in diplomacy. New solutions are urgently needed to regulate emerging forms of conflict and prevent constant, low-grade wars from becoming the norm. This includes:

• AI-driven mediation tools that can analyze conflicts, predict escalation, and recommend strategies for de-escalation in real-time.
• New coalitions that transcend borders, bringing together nations, corporations, and non-state actors to collaboratively regulate cyberwarfare, AI-based conflicts, and decentralized threats.
• Expanded legal frameworks to govern digital warfare and hold rogue actors accountable, ensuring global rules evolve alongside technology.

While humanity has created tools of unparalleled destruction, history shows that we also possess the ingenuity to build tools for peace. Innovation does not have to be a weapon; it can be a bridge—an opportunity to craft systems that prevent conflicts, resolve disputes, and promote cooperation in an increasingly fragmented world. If we can match technological progress with equal progress in governance and diplomacy, we have a real chance of avoiding a future of constant conflict.

We all aspire to living in a peaceful city of the future, but can we ever make that happen?

Final Thoughts: A Future at the Crossroads

Since 2008, war has evolved into new and uncharted realms—silent cyber battles, economic sanctions as weapons, and algorithm-driven conflicts that destabilize societies from within. These conflicts are harder to identify, harder to contain, and harder to resolve. The tools of power have become decentralized, empowering corporations, non-state actors, and individuals to wage wars that don’t look like wars at all.

The fundamental question before us is this: Can we adapt quickly enough to prevent the wars of tomorrow? Or will our most advanced technologies simply make conflict quieter, deadlier, and far more insidious? Without new systems to regulate these tools and resolve tensions, we risk living in a world of perpetual “not-war”—a fragile, simmering state where the potential for conflict never fully disappears.

The opposite of war is not peace. True peace requires a conscious effort—a deliberate act of building systems that heal divides, resolve disputes, and create stability. It’s a challenge that demands bold thinking, global cooperation, and the same innovative spirit that brought us the tools of war. Whether we embrace that challenge or allow tensions to fester will determine if we move toward a future of peace or deeper fragmentation.

Humanity stands at a crossroads. The choices we make today will shape the conflicts—or resolutions—of tomorrow.

Our homes are more than just buildings; they are places where we grow, build relationships, and find comfort. As we project forward into the future, the concept of ‘home’ is set to undergo transformative changes, responding to shifting demographics, technological advancements, and our growing awareness of environmental sustainability. In the next 10 to 20 years, the architectural design of our houses will significantly evolve, reflecting our deepening understanding of health, our desire for flexibility, and our need for integration with evolving technologies.

1. AI Smart Home Integration

Future homes will be seamlessly integrated with smart technology to create living spaces that are more comfortable, efficient, and secure. This goes beyond just connecting various appliances and systems to the internet.

In these future smart homes, AI will play a central role. It will not only be about controlling lights, temperature, or security remotely, but the AI will learn from residents’ habits and preferences to automate these controls. For instance, your home might learn that you start your day at 6 am, so it will automatically adjust the thermostat, open the blinds, and start brewing your coffee at that time.

Facial recognition technology will enhance security systems to identify residents and trusted visitors and alert homeowners to unknown individuals. Similarly, integrated sensors could detect unusual activity and potentially prevent accidents – for example, alerting you if the oven has been left on for too long.

Entertainment systems will also become more integrated and personalized. Imagine your home knowing your favorite TV shows and automatically recording them or creating a perfect lighting and sound ambiance for your movie night.

The rise of IoT will also see more appliances being controlled by voice commands or through mobile apps. Everything from refrigerators to washing machines could provide status updates, alerts for problems, and even automated maintenance reminders. Additionally, smart homes will become more interactive. Augmented Reality (AR) could play a part in this, for instance, overlaying a cooking tutorial on your smart stove or displaying your day’s schedule on your bathroom mirror.

With these advancements, future smart homes will not just be about gadgetry or automation but creating an environment that’s in tune with the occupants’ lifestyle, providing comfort, convenience, and an enhanced living experience.

2. Shared Coworking Spaces in Residential Design

As we move into a more flexible and remote work era, the boundary between our work and home lives is increasingly blurred. In response, the architectural design of our homes in the next 10 to 20 years will integrate shared coworking spaces, fundamentally altering how we perceive and design residential spaces.

In future home designs, shared coworking spaces will be a common feature, particularly in communal living arrangements or large residential complexes. These spaces will provide a conducive environment for remote work, fostering collaboration and promoting a sense of community among residents. They could be designed as designated rooms or areas within the building that are fully equipped with workstations, high-speed internet, meeting rooms, and even amenities like a coffee station or a relaxation zone.

The design of these spaces will prioritize both productivity and comfort. Ergonomics will be a key consideration, with furniture designed to support good posture and minimize strain during long work periods. Natural light will be maximized to boost mood and focus, and noise control measures will be implemented to ensure a quiet, distraction-free environment.

Beyond physical design aspects, technology will play a critical role in these shared coworking spaces. Advanced tech solutions such as smart screens for video conferencing, virtual reality headsets for immersive meetings, or AI-powered noise-cancellation systems could become standard features. These tech integrations will not only support seamless remote work but also enhance collaborative experiences among the residents.

However, it’s not all about work. These shared coworking spaces will also function as social spaces, promoting interaction and community-building among residents. They might host networking events, skill-sharing workshops, or communal activities, encouraging residents to connect with each other beyond their professional roles.

As the lines between home and office continue to blur, shared coworking spaces in residential areas will support the changing dynamics of work, offering flexibility, fostering community, and promoting a healthy work-life balance. This trend will not only reshape our homes but also redefine how we interact with our living spaces in the context of work and community.

3. Virtual/Augmented Reality Spaces

As virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR) technologies continue to evolve, they will significantly influence home design in the coming years. Beyond the realm of gaming, these technologies can provide immersive experiences for entertainment, education, work, and social interaction, changing how we interact with digital content and our living spaces.

Future homes may incorporate dedicated VR/AR spaces designed to provide enough room for movement while ensuring safety. These spaces could feature open floor plans, unobstructed by furniture, with padded or soft-finish floors and walls to prevent injury. Inbuilt tracking systems could be used to interact with the virtual environment and ensure users stay within the designated area.

In the realm of interior design, AR can transform how we decorate and arrange our homes. With AR, homeowners could visualize how different furniture pieces, color schemes, or lighting conditions would look in their actual space before making a purchase or change. This would allow for more confident design decisions and personalized aesthetics.

For work and learning, VR can create immersive, distraction-free environments that improve focus and engagement. A home office or study might include a VR setup for attending virtual meetings or classes, and transporting users to a simulated boardroom or lecture hall with the push of a button.

The integration of VR/AR in homes also has potential therapeutic applications. For example, VR could be used for guided meditation or stress relief, creating peaceful, immersive environments within one’s own home.

As the hardware for VR/AR becomes more compact and wireless, incorporating these technologies into residential design will become easier. In the future, VR/AR could become as much a part of our homes as our televisions or computers are today, reshaping our living spaces into adaptable, interactive environments.

4. Robot-Friendly Design

As advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence continue to accelerate, the integration of robotic companions into our households becomes increasingly plausible. Future homes may very well be designed with the intention to accommodate these mechanical helpers, fostering their interaction with the human occupants and the house itself.

Robot-friendly design involves considering the physical characteristics and functionalities of robots. Homes might incorporate designated pathways and clear floors to facilitate robot movement. This could include wider doorways and hallways, ramped transitions between different floor levels, and open floor plans that allow for easy navigation.

Charging stations will become a standard part of home design, similar to how many homes now have dedicated spots for charging mobile devices. These could be discreetly integrated into the home design, perhaps as a part of a utility room or a corner of the living area.

Homes could also incorporate digital interfaces and control panels at a height accessible to both robots and humans, allowing robots to manipulate various home systems. For instance, a domestic robot might be tasked with adjusting the home’s thermostat or controlling the lighting based on the homeowner’s preferences.

In houses with multi-story, design consideration would be given to how robots can move between different levels. Options could range from installing robot-friendly ramps or lifts to developing robots that can safely and efficiently climb stairs.

Additionally, as robots become more adept at performing complex tasks, kitchens and utility areas might be designed with robotic functionality in mind. Adjustable countertops or modular storage units could be utilized to allow robots to cook meals or clean up, contributing to household chores.

Incorporating robot-friendly design into our homes is about optimizing for a harmonious coexistence between humans and robots. The goal is to create a living environment where robotic companions can effectively augment our daily routines, making our lives more comfortable and efficient.

5. Drone Security and Drone Delivery Systems

The advent of drone technology has not only revolutionized several industries but is also poised to impact the design and function of future homes significantly. In the next 10 to 20 years, two key features that are expected to become integrated into home design are drone security systems and drone delivery systems.

Drone Security Systems: Safety and security are primary concerns for any homeowner, and as such, drone technology presents an advanced solution to meet these needs. Future homes could incorporate drone security systems, which operate as mobile CCTV units. These autonomous drones could be programmed to patrol the property at specified intervals, equipped with night vision and motion detection capabilities to identify any unusual activity.

Furthermore, the drone can be instantly deployed in the event of a security breach, providing real-time video feed to homeowners or a security firm. This rapid response capability not only deters potential intruders but also aids in the identification and subsequent apprehension of criminals. Given their aerial advantage, these drones can also monitor hard-to-reach areas, offering a comprehensive security solution.

Drone Delivery Systems: As online shopping and home delivery services become ever more dominant, future homes will need to adapt to this trend. One solution is the integration of drone delivery systems into the design of homes.

Houses could include drone landing pads or designated drone delivery docks, often located on rooftops or balconies. These docks would be equipped with security measures such as locking mechanisms to prevent theft and could also include protective elements to shield packages from weather conditions.

On the technological front, these docks might include systems to automatically receive delivery drones guided by GPS and autonomous navigation systems. Once a drone lands, the dock can secure the package and automatically recharge its battery before it departs for the next delivery.

As our reliance on drone technology increases, it’s clear that future home designs must consider the integration of these systems. By including drone security and drone delivery systems, future homes can offer enhanced safety and convenience, meeting future homeowners’ changing needs and expectations.

6. Biophilic Design

Biophilia, a term popularized by biologist Edward O. Wilson, describes the innate human attraction to nature and living things. Biophilic design is an approach to architecture that seeks to connect building occupants more closely to nature. As awareness of the importance of mental and physical well-being increases, biophilic design principles will play a more significant role in residential architecture in the next 10 to 20 years.

Biophilic design incorporates elements of nature into the built environment, both directly and indirectly. Direct applications may involve the integration of actual nature into architecture. This could take the form of indoor gardens, green walls, water features, or the use of natural materials such as wood and stone. The sounds, smells, and tactile experiences of nature can also be incorporated to provide a multi-sensory connection.

Indirect nature engagement might include biomimetic designs, which mimic natural forms and patterns, or biophilic spatial configurations that emulate environments where humans historically thrived. Large windows, glass walls, or skylights that let in plenty of natural light are a common feature, as well as designs that facilitate views of the outdoor environment.

Access to outdoor spaces will also be a critical part of future residential design. This could include private spaces like balconies and terraces or communal green spaces in multi-residential developments. The outdoor spaces would be designed to provide meaningful contact with nature, such as planting edible gardens or native species to attract local wildlife.

Biophilic design goes beyond simply adding plants to indoor spaces. It’s about creating a living environment that embodies the essence of nature, promoting a sense of peace and well-being. The benefits of biophilic design are numerous, including improved mental health, reduced stress levels, enhanced creativity, and increased overall satisfaction with one’s living environment.

As urbanization continues and the disconnect between humans and nature grows, the need for biophilic design in our homes will only become more essential.

7. Net-Zero Energy Homes

As the world grapples with climate change, energy efficiency in residential buildings is more crucial than ever. Net-Zero Energy Homes (NZEH) represent the future of sustainable living, designed to produce as much renewable energy as they consume over the course of a year. The concept will fundamentally shape the architecture and construction industry in the next 10 to 20 years.

Net-zero homes aim to minimize energy needs through effective insulation, high-performance windows, and smart design to take advantage of natural light and heat. They may feature orientation that captures or avoids the sun’s heat depending on the climate, as well as shade features or landscaping to control temperature.

The homes will generate their own energy through renewable sources, primarily solar panels and potentially wind or geothermal energy. The implementation of energy storage systems, like advanced battery technology, will allow homeowners to store excess energy produced during peak production times for use during periods of high energy demand.

Net-zero homes will also include energy-efficient appliances and systems, along with smart home technology that allows residents to monitor and manage their energy use. These homes can feed excess energy back to the grid, effectively turning residential buildings into mini power plants.

Water conservation will also be crucial to net-zero design, incorporating features like rainwater harvesting systems, greywater reuse, or water-efficient appliances and fixtures.

Building a net-zero home involves a synergistic approach to design and construction, considering the home as an integrated system rather than a collection of separate elements. This approach, combined with advancements in renewable energy and energy-efficiency technologies, will make net-zero homes a practical and affordable option for many homeowners.

The push towards net-zero living isn’t just about reducing energy bills or even environmental impact. It represents a shift towards more sustainable, resilient communities, paving the way for a future where every home is a contributor to a cleaner and greener planet.

8. IoT Integration

As the Internet of Things (IoT) continues to expand, our homes are becoming more connected and intelligent. Future homes will not merely be places to live but dynamic entities capable of learning from and adapting to their inhabitants. The design and structure of houses 10 to 20 years from now will heavily incorporate IoT technologies to increase efficiency, comfort, and security.

In a smart home, various systems and appliances connect to the internet and can communicate with each other. This allows for centralized control through a main hub or an app. From lighting and heating to entertainment and security systems, virtually every aspect of home life can be automated and customized to individual preferences.

Artificial intelligence will play a significant role in smart homes, with learning algorithms capable of understanding the habits and patterns of occupants to optimize energy usage and enhance comfort. Your home might learn your daily routines, automatically adjusting the temperature, lighting, or music based on the time of day or your activities.

Smart homes will also incorporate more sophisticated security systems. Facial recognition software could allow for keyless entry, and remote monitoring will enable homeowners to keep an eye on their property from anywhere in the world. Smart sensors could detect anything from break-ins to water leaks, offering peace of mind and potentially saving money on repairs.

Voice-activated virtual assistants will become a standard feature, capable of everything from answering questions to controlling other IoT devices. We also see the rise of touchless technology in homes, from motion-sensor lights to voice-activated appliances, fostering ease and convenience.

Integration with electric vehicles and charging infrastructure will also be a key aspect of future home design. Homeowners could manage their vehicle charging schedule based on their daily routine or when electricity rates are lowest, all integrated into their home’s smart system.

However, with the advent of smart homes, data security and privacy will become increasingly critical. Future home design will need to consider these aspects, ensuring that all data generated and collected within the home is secure.

In the future, homes will become proactive partners in managing our daily lives, improving our comfort, safety, and well-being while optimizing resource usage and contributing to a sustainable future.

9. Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality in Design Process

Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) are set to revolutionize the design and construction of homes in the next 10 to 20 years. These technologies provide immersive, interactive experiences that allow architects, builders, and clients to visualize, modify, and interact with a home’s design before it’s built.

VR enables users to step inside a fully immersive 3D simulation of a planned house. Users can explore every room, inspect every detail, and even simulate different times of day to see how sunlight would interact with the space. This provides an unprecedented level of understanding and confidence in the design, ensuring that everyone involved is on the same page about what the finished home will look like.

With VR, design changes can be made on the fly, allowing architects and clients to experiment with different ideas and immediately see the results. This can greatly reduce the time and costs associated with changes during the actual construction process.

AR, on the other hand, overlays digital information onto the real world, allowing users to see how a design would fit into an existing environment. For example, clients could use an AR app to visualize how a proposed addition would look on their existing house or how a new home would fit onto a particular piece of land.

AR can also be used during the construction process to guide builders. For example, workers could use AR glasses to overlay construction plans onto their field of view, showing exactly where each component should go and reducing the risk of errors.

In addition, these technologies could change the way we think about space in our homes. With VR, a small room could be transformed into an expansive virtual environment, providing a sense of spaciousness without the need for a large physical footprint. This could become increasingly important as urbanization leads to smaller living spaces.

Both VR and AR offer incredible possibilities for the future of home design, providing a more collaborative, flexible, and efficient design process. The result will be homes that better meet the needs and desires of their inhabitants, leading to greater satisfaction and comfort.

10. Health-Focused Design

As health and wellness become ever more important facets of our daily lives, the architecture and design of our homes will follow suit. Future homes will be built with the intention of promoting physical and mental well-being, making health-focused design a significant trend in the next 10 to 20 years.

Indoor air quality will be a major focus. Features such as advanced air filtration systems, humidity control, and the use of non-toxic, hypoallergenic materials will become standard to combat pollutants and allergens. In addition, the use of plants and green spaces within homes will not only enhance aesthetic appeal but also improve air quality and create a calming atmosphere.

Lighting will also play a crucial role in health-focused design. Homes will be designed to maximize natural light, which has been shown to boost mood and productivity, regulate circadian rhythms, and even improve sleep. For times when natural light is limited, adjustable, human-centric artificial lighting that can mimic the color temperature and intensity of natural light will be used.

Home layouts will also be designed to promote physical activity. This could mean the incorporation of dedicated exercise spaces, or it could be as simple as designing homes that encourage movement, such as placing frequently used rooms far apart.

The acoustic environment of homes will also be considered. Soundproofing to reduce noise pollution, including calming natural sounds and using materials that minimize echo, can contribute to a more peaceful and stress-free living environment.

Technological advancements will also support health-focused design. Health monitoring devices will be integrated into the smart home systems, tracking parameters like heart rate, sleep quality, and physical activity and offering insights and recommendations to improve the inhabitants’ health.

Homes will also include spaces designed for mental wellness, such as quiet areas for meditation or relaxation, spaces with immersive nature views, or areas dedicated to hobbies or creative activities.

In the future, homes will serve not just as living spaces but as supportive environments that actively contribute to the health and well-being of their inhabitants. The result will be homes that are not just places to live but places that help us live better.

11. Multigenerational and Adaptable Living Spaces

As lifespans increase and family dynamics evolve, the need for homes to accommodate multiple generations under one roof is becoming increasingly important. Homes in the next 10 to 20 years will be designed with flexibility and adaptability at their core, allowing them to adjust to the changing needs of their inhabitants over time.

Multigenerational homes will include each generation’s private spaces and communal areas where the family can gather. These homes may feature separate living quarters for elderly parents or adult children, with features such as ground-level living for those who can’t navigate stairs or soundproofing to ensure privacy.

Adaptable design will be a key feature of these homes, allowing rooms to serve multiple purposes over time. For instance, a home office could be converted into a nursery, then later into a guest room. Wall partitions might be movable to change the layout of the house quickly or to create additional rooms when needed.

Technological advancements will also facilitate the creation of adaptable living spaces. Smart home systems could adjust lighting, temperature, and even furniture arrangements based on who is using a room. Homes might feature adjustable-height counters and sinks or walls embedded with tech that can transform a living room into a home theater at the touch of a button.

The design of these homes will also consider accessibility and safety features to accommodate older family members, such as wider doorways for wheelchair access, non-slip flooring, grab bars in bathrooms, and smart health monitoring systems.

Sustainability will also be a key consideration in multigenerational homes. As these homes will be designed to last and adapt for many years, they will need to be energy-efficient and built with durable, sustainable materials.

Multigenerational and adaptable homes offer a practical and flexible solution to the changing demographics and lifestyles of modern families. By allowing families to remain together, they can foster stronger familial bonds, use space better, and potentially provide economic benefits by sharing costs.

Final Thoughts

Anticipating the future, it’s evident that the home of the future is more than just a space for living. It becomes a health promoter, an adaptable entity, an energy producer, and a technological marvel. These predictions of transformative changes to home design are rooted in the present but geared towards a future that promises exciting opportunities. It’s a future that suggests a fundamental shift from a static dwelling to a dynamic, responsive environment, catering to our needs, supporting our health, and augmenting our lifestyles. As we move towards this future, we are shaping homes that aren’t just designed for living but for living better.

There’s one specific use case for drones that I’ve been thinking about for the past decade, waiting for it to get implemented – active policing with streetlight drones using AI technology.

Yes, drones are already used in a variety of passive police work situations – monitoring crowds, search and rescue in remote areas for criminals or lost citizens, and crime scene documentation. But having drones automatically deployed based on specific sounds heard in a city that’s different.

Picking Up Where ShotSpotter Leaves Off

When it comes to audio-based, rapid police response, though, law enforcement up to now has relied on very impressive fixed-base ShotSpotter technology. The system uses sound sensors strategically placed high up on buildings and other structures throughout an urban area.

When these sensors detect what might be a gunshot, AI technology quickly determines if it in fact was a gunshot. Then it identifies the exact location within a few feet based on triangulation calculations from multiple sensors. This data is confirmed and then passed on to local law enforcement. According to the company, this location identification process happens within 60 seconds.

But then the response lag begins. Depending on many circumstances, responders typically won’t arrive on the scene for another few minutes at the earliest. A lot can happen in those next few minutes. Victims can die, and assailants can leave the scene.

From a policing standpoint, the sooner they can “get eyes” on a situation, the quicker they can respond in the best possible fashion.

Placing policing drones with surveillance cameras in strategic areas throughout a city, such as on streetlights, and enabling remote or autonomous operation puts them in a position to do far more policing quicker than it would otherwise happen. The alternative is to bring the drones on the scene and then deploy them, which is also too slow.

Remote drones will reduce these response time lags and be the first eyes on the scene. How much policing they are allowed to do once they arrive on-site remains to be seen.

Remote Drone Responders on Standby

The Louisville Kentucky Metro Police Department could be the first police force in the country to put this capability to use. They first need to get a waiver from Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulations that require line-of-site drone piloting and prohibit anyone from flying drones above populated areas or at night.

Specifically, the Louisville Police would like to sync their ShotSpotter system with a fleet of remotely dispersed autonomous drones so that upon confirmation of a gun discharge the drone would self-route to the site and surveil activity on the ground.

Conceivably, these dispersed drones could also be dispatched to fly via remote control or autonomously for immediate surveillance upon receipt of a critical 911 call.

In these cases, once the drone gets on the scene, flight controls could be taken over by a remote operator who then could position the drone and control the cameras, sensors, and other instruments to maximum their response.

Pros and Cons

This will be a huge step forward in policing and protecting lives. Early eyes on the scene are critical for an informed human response as well as for documenting conditions on the scene before they’re disturbed.

As with most technology, there are many benefits and also a few areas of concern in deploying this kind of response technology. The benefits of these early eyes on a potential crime scene are clear, though:

1. The first responders will have better information about ongoing threats and other details when they arrive on the scene.
2. The image of a suspect or person of interest and their vehicle could be captured before they leave the area.
3. It will likely be clear if the medical response is needed at the scene so these responders can be dispatched sooner.
4. First encounters between responders and suspects could be monitored.
5. There will be earlier notice of “false alarms” to minimize the danger inherent in unnecessary rapid responses.

At the same time, there are a couple of downsides to this as well that may need to be worked out before this is widely deployed.

1. The drones, whether parked high up in hibernation mode, in flight or especially when hovering over a potential crime scene could become shooting targets themselves with the added risks of producing more gunfire in the area.
2. If the drones are not sufficiently stealthy, a drone’s presence could tip off a suspect that they’re being watched. This might encourage them to flee quicker than they would have or even cause them to take more drastic action.

If you’ve been reading this column for a while, you probably already know that the perfect IT solution doesn’t need to be the enemy of a very good IT solution. With proper safeguards and prudent policies, these rapid response drones will save lives and possibly even minimize criminal activity. Over time, we’ll quickly maximize the positives of this approach to policing.

Drones in Blue?

Some have suggested that we should arm the drones with lethal force as well.

While I don’t see this type of urban drone policing going that far, it will just be a matter of time before these police response drones have non-lethal capabilities and place those tools under the control of remote operators. Some of those scenarios might include:

1. An autonomous police drone arrives on the scene and then follows a vehicle speeding from the site and even lays down tire puncture spikes ahead of it.
2. Upon arriving on the scene, a police drone could disrupt an ongoing situation with non-lethal distractions like strobe lights or even pellets.
3. In more extreme situations, drones could be equipped with tasers or similar non-lethal weapons to disrupt a perpetrator and bring things to a speedier resolution.

Adding AI drones to the resources available to law enforcement will certainly change the rules of street life. The quicker response times will not only help identify and build a case against a suspect but also add a measure of security for law-abiding citizens.

The path to the future is really many paths, each moving in fits and starts with rapid progress along some and unexpected but ultimately explainable delays along with others.

In 2015 I looked in detail at the progress of the drone delivery business. That column, titled “37 Critical Problems that need to be Solved for Drone Delivery to become Viable,” goes A-Z with all the logistical challenges that will likely be encountered and will need to be addressed in the context of a residential drone-powered delivery.

We can cross some of those challenges off the list – especially those related to the battery technology of the drones themselves.

Although I didn’t put a date on the ultimate point when drone deliveries would be widely implemented, I’ll admit I was overly optimistic about that timeframe. I’m not the only one, though. Thanks to early hype from Amazon and others nearly a decade ago, we were led to believe this was just around the corner. It wasn’t, but a lot can happen in eight years.

So now, it would appear, we’re almost there. The concept has been proven and in 4-6 years, a majority of people in the U.S. will be able to receive drone deliveries of food, medication, and relatively light packages. This same transition, however, will be even quicker and more comprehensive in China and other APAC countries.

Don’t Let Perfection be the Enemy of Progress

“When” is an important and fun question to consider, but first let’s ask a more serious one.

Does every logistical, ethical, and safety contingency situation need to be addressed and resolved in advance before we begin widely deploying these groundbreaking technologies?

There’s no right answer, but I can’t help but think about the introduction of cars in the early years of the 20th century. Gottlieb Daimler, Karl Benz, and others were instrumental in designing and prototyping automobile technology in the decades prior to that. Henry Ford made his own improvements and, maybe even more important, developed the assembly line process for mass-producing his car and bringing automobility to the general public.

However, an observer back in 1906 could have written a similar article to my drone delivery piece, but with a twist. They might have echoed today’s “solve everything first” mindset by saying we needed to address safety, logistical, and infrastructure challenges before cars should be introduced to the masses. Logically things like road, traffic safety codes, fuel stations, airbags, driver training, driver’s licensing, and insurance, should be in place prior to selling cars.

Instead, the Model T was literally rolled out first, and these other things evolved quickly or in subsequent years and decades. When the need became apparent, the challenges were met.

That’s the path to the future. Sometimes we need to rely on human ingenuity, and just let things work themselves out as we go.

Some Hurdles Cleared, Others to Come

But back to delivery drones. Except for important safety protocols and licensing standards, many of the logistical matters related to drone delivery should be left to the market and the innovators. How will we deliver to high-rises? Someone will figure it out. What about rural delivery? Technology and warehousing will address much of that. Chalk that up to the “messy early years,” that I described seven years ago.

Let’s just get more delivery drones safely into the air! I say “more” because they’re already out there.

The good news is that the FAA seems to be willing to get out of the way of the industry and let this happen for the most part, again after putting a few safety guardrails in place.

That’s why we’re finally on the cusp of widespread implementation of this service category – and just in time given the shortage of labor and the explosion of the online economy.

Will We Even Know the Date When it Happens?

Like many breakthroughs, there won’t be a red-letter day where the switch is thrown, and delivery drones flood the skies. We’ll begin seeing them more and more until we don’t really notice them at all.

A colleague of mine was visiting friends in a Seattle suburb recently and told me he saw one of Amazon Prime’s Scout robots rolling down the sidewalk making a last-mile delivery. Needless to say, he noticed it, but the locals he was with seemed to take it in stride. In fact, many companies are deploying delivery robots in certain areas to deliver groceries, prepared food, and light packages.

We’ve reached the tipping point for delivery robots, and delivery drones aren’t far behind.

Although they’re not routine or widespread, commercial drone deliveries are happening – mostly launched as pilot projects and publicity demonstrations or for emergency medical deliveries.

Wings, an Alphabet company, was set to begin drone-based delivery services last month in select Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs after successful experiences in test markets in Australia. Alphabet’s Wing is now delivering via drone for Walgreens in those Texas locations with plans to work with other healthcare providers and retailers.

Interestingly, and as an aside, Alphabet’s Wing drones don’t land at their destination – they drop their cargo from 20 feet or so with a tether line. Once it reaches the ground, the container is automatically unhooked.

Can Drone Delivery Be Profitable?

Drones won’t be widespread until the path to profits is clear. It’s hard to define where “pilots” end and “regular service” begins for most drone-based packages and food delivery. We can be sure though, that it will quickly become the norm right around the time that there are sufficient efficiencies in the technology and demand for the service to send the profit projections in the right direction.

We’re on that path now, and we have plenty of proof-of-concept examples, thanks to the pilot programs. The vehicle technology is good and it’s only going to get better. There are tens of thousands of documented successful deliveries, primarily in non-U.S. markets.

In addition to vehicle enhancements that will add energy efficiencies and reduce capital costs, we’ll have continued breakthroughs in systems and processes, such as the ability to make multiple stops and deliveries on a single trip.

One evolution that’s lacking, which accounts for the bulk of my 4-6-year estimate, is the lack of certainty around local regulatory authorizations – it will likely be a city-by-city approval process for every company and its technology.

And then there’s the demand side. The pandemic propelled the market for home deliveries in general to levels that would have otherwise taken decades to reach – if even then. This demand will need to remain high if the delivery drone sector is going to be sustainable and profitable.

The news is encouraging there, too. One consumer survey indicates that consumer demand for home delivery will likely continue to drift up even as pandemic restrictions are lifted.

For many, home delivery clearly is a convenience worth paying for. That particular survey showed, though, that the reliability of current systems has a long way to go in the eyes of the home consumer. That means delivery drones will need to make the case – and prove it very quickly – that they’re a reliable and predictable delivery solution. In other words, they’ll need to do better than Grubhub, Uber Eats, and Instacart.

The Markets Seem to Back Delivery Drones

Maybe the best indicator of the potential for drone delivery might be the willingness of investors to back these ventures and companies.

Market analysts are generally bullish on this sector, with some, for example, citing the possibility of automated fulfillment centers with a nearly literal beehive of activity as orders are filled by robots and delivered by drones.

There are numerous analyses, such as this one from Data Bridge Market Research, that indicate the growth rate in drone package delivery will be well into the double digits from now and into the foreseeable future.

So don’t be disheartened. Drone deliveries will soon be coming to your doorstep. This time I’m positive.

There’s no question our skies are getting crowded. In addition to their use by recreational hobbyists, drones are supporting farming, construction, real estate, deliveries, and nearly every other major industry. They’re also being used for more nefarious purposes like smuggling and illegal surveillance.

A few nights ago, I had a dream about a security drone that dropped out of the ceiling of a store and proceeded to attack a gunman with disruptive flashing lights and noise. This started me thinking about all the ways drones may be used in future security systems.

We’re Moving Toward Civilian Drone Weaponization

Two trends are coming together that seem to indicate that in the future, law enforcement drones won’t just be used for search and rescue or crowd monitoring.

First law enforcement and private security are increasingly using drones in threat situations to find and track suspects engaged or suspected in a crime. In some cases, drone dispatching is so fast and automated, that it can have a deterrent effect on a crime in progress.

Second, the armed forces have rapidly militarized the use of drones – for nearly two decades they’ve been used in the Middle East to destroy terrorist targets for example.

Put those trends together and how long will it be before we have the weaponization of drones for domestic law enforcement and private security?

It’s not a huge leap from the today’s world of armed police officers and security professionals to a point where those same officers and guards use drones more proactively – and lethally, perhaps arming them with a gun, taser, laser, or large speakers that emits sonic bursts.

The Current Use of Drones by Law Enforcement

Drones quickly have built a track record of saving lives thanks to their ability to respond to scenes quickly and do methodical airborne searches at lower altitudes than planes or helicopters. Law enforcement drones are accompanied by optical and thermal sensors, spotlights, video cameras, and loudspeakers. Police drones and their operators have saved hundreds of lives.

Over the past decade, several states have considered authorizing police forces to use lethal weapon-armed drones, while others have proposed limiting them to non-lethal weapons like rubber bullets, tasers, or tear gas. Most major police departments around the country, though, haven’t taken steps to arm their drone fleet with lethal or nonlethal weaponry.

In recent mass shooting events, though, it would seem that even nonlethal drone weapons might be advantageous if only to slow down or distract the assailant. The challenge, of course, would be the cost of deploying them in advance in indoor settings, like in the store ceiling in my dream.

Law Enforcement Trying to Keep Up

Drones with greater range are becoming more commonplace and inexpensive, putting law enforcement, especially federal groups, on the defensive. Environmental organizations have demonstrated how easy it may be to infiltrate the airspace of a nuclear facility using a commonly available hobby drone.

Drones as personal weapons

This also raises the question of whether in the U.S., a citizen’s “right to bear arms” includes the right to own a drone that is armed?

In 2019, the Federal Aviation Administration said “no,” in no uncertain terms. The FAA specifically called out the illegality of drones armed with “attached guns, bombs, fireworks, flamethrowers, and other dangerous items.”

Violators are subject to a $25,000 fine. Apparently, word has not gotten around, though, and many of these weaponry/drone hobbyists are posting videos on social media of their creations in action.

Drone Defense

Given the potential for this kind of drone lethality or criminal mischief, drone detection is a thriving industry as well. Installations such as power plants, refineries, airports, and military bases have drone detection systems to notify security teams of an unauthorized drone in the vicinity.

A California company now offers a Cloud-based drone detection service that not only will spot a suspicious drone that enters a defined airspace, but it performs a risk assessment of the drone’s possible intentions. If the facility is authorized, the company’s other products can bring down the drone, not with an air-to-air missile, but with a “surgical mitigation” technology that safely brings the drone to earth.

Like most of today’s emerging technology, drones can be used for good and for evil – and there’s some shades of gray in between.

In 2015 I wrote a column talking through the issues that needed to be resolved before we would ever see a significant level of deliveries by drones. In that column, I brought up 37 issues that still needed to be resolved.

Not surprising, the evolution of drone technology has solved many of them, including some questions related to durability, range, and collision avoidance. Other issues, such as designated delivery landing spots, drone education, and a “flying drone bill of rights” were generally less technical and more system-related.

That said, we still have a long ways to go before drones are commonplace in our neighborhoods, suburbs, and cities. But the prospects for drone delivery are increasingly positive and closer than ever.

Context

The commercial use of drones is already fairly widespread. Maybe their most visible manifestation is their use in news coverage and how they’ve replaced blimps at major sporting events. That’s just scratching the surface, though. Behind the scenes and above our heads drones are supporting:

• Law enforcement – surveillance and investigations
• Insurance – reviewing property damage
• Construction – conducting safety inspections
• Agriculture – monitoring crops
• Military – reconnaissance

Until now, though, commercial drones have been used as “flying cameras.” The next growth phase for commercial drone usage will be for delivery services. That’s when they’ll really catch our attention – literally – and become an integral part of our lives.

That won’t be too far off. Analysts estimate that the global drone delivery service industry will stand at more than $9.5 billion by 2027.

The Current State of Drone-Based Delivery

How far have we come in six years? The Federal Aviation Administration seems on board with drone deliveries in theory, which is an important next step. Late last year the FAA approved Amazon’s use of drones to deliver packages in remote, rural areas. Alphabet’s (parent company of Google) Wing Aviation and UPS’s Flight Forward service had also received similar approvals.

These companies are certified as “air carriers,” but apparently, regulators are still concerned about drones and packages falling from the sky in more urban areas. It appears that for the time being at least, the FAA wants humans closely monitoring each one … if not flying them remotely.

It’s interesting to note that, according to one consultant in this area, the FAA isn’t taking the approach of telling companies exactly how to operate safely. Instead, they’re evaluating the safety measures these companies propose and describe.

Presumably, these three companies have already addressed several of the safety issues I mentioned six years ago. We can’t know for sure, though, since the manuals and the other information they’ve supplied to the FAA are confidential due to their proprietary technology. Experts suggest these safety solutions include parachutes; self-destruct capabilities; and other controlled, emergency descent failsafe features.

Future Trends in Drone Technology and Applications

Technology will continue to improve in ways that will make drones an even more viable delivery vehicle.

The evolution of single-charge lithium-metal batteries to replace larger lithium-ion batteries will give drones greater range. And enhanced autonomous navigation will enhance their maneuverability to the point they can navigate their way within a residence or a building to deliver more sensitive material.

As with so many aspects of our lives, the pandemic sped up certain technology applications that were already trending. One of those is the use of drones in healthcare, including for delivery of vaccines in remote, third-world areas. This experience has made healthcare providers eager to not only explore prescription delivery options but to provide a system to collect certain, easier-to-obtain human tissue and fluid samples for analysis in conjunction with a telehealth house call.

This calls for drones with fly/drive capabilities that can enter a residence, navigate the rooms, and perhaps even park itself on the dining room table, delivering medications while the patient telecommunicates with the physician and loads up the drone with samples to carry back on the return flight.

Researchers at the University of Cincinnati have developed a prototype drone to do exactly that, including outfitting it with cameras and a display screen to facilitate direct communication between the patient and the healthcare professional.

The possibilities are endless. Last year, NATO tested a system in which drones could resupply isolated troops in response to requests from individual soldiers.

Specialized Delivery Sectors

The different players in drone-based delivery will make advances that support their respective business models. Alphabet’s Wing Aviation is likely to reflect Google’s strength in small business and local retail.

The company is exploring drone delivery for retail purchases, food, and otherwise, for example. UPS is expected to continue to extend its legacy of prescription medicine delivery using drones. Amazon will take advantage of its localized warehouses and use their drones for short-distance delivery of smaller packages, taking some of its fleet of vans off the road.

Drone Traffic Control

And speaking of roads, we can expect early drone delivery services to resemble vehicles traveling on a road system 400 or so feet in the air. Think of it in terms of drones on a road grid with major arteries connecting to minor streets, rather than a flock of birds flying wherever they wish. In fact, to facilitate residential deliveries and minimize nuisance, these drone routes may very closely mirror our current street maps.

The big breakthrough, though, will be when the FAA approves autonomous operating drones – not piloted and not supervised. That’s when companies will be able to scale their operations tremendously.

At that point, drones will become flying robots, doing their jobs better than we can, which we should be getting used to by now.

We’ve made a lot of progress on the 37 delivery drone-related challenges I raised six years ago. But according to my calculations, there are at least 14 more to go, even if I’m grading our progress generously.